Why do you think it is bullshit? The stats will all be available shortly if they aren't already and you can see how many shares you submitted and the total for the round.
The lower your total hash rate, the less you will complete in any given round and thus greater variance. Use PPS if you want constant payment.
I mine relatively fast I suppose and yet I still get rounds where I am paid nothing. Consider:
Time | Found in | Total shares | Reward |
03.06.2011 16:50:58 | 0h 00m | 16092 | None |
I simply did not get a share accepted during that time frame. I may have submitted a share too late as a stale share, or work I was doing was dropped due to a long polling push.
The lower your hash rate, the more of these. You should be able to see that it follows that in short rounds, you may get a much larger payment than is typical or a much smaller payment than is usual. It is a quantum effect. You take a variable amount of time to solve a share, but you submit a single share; there is no such thing as a partial share. So, the shorter the round, the larger the value of each share. It is theoretically possible that you could solve the first block of the round on the very first and only share and thus get the entire payout (-3%) of 48.5BTC for the round, but I think in practice, it would be nearly impossible to happen.