well here we are on sunday morning price is 370 usd and diff dropping just a bit. frankly I thought we would have a 4% bump so far this drop is very nice.
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (-1.52%)http://www.bitcoincharts.com/ (-0.64%)If we keep the -1% and go under 40 diff on the 16th or 17th We may not get another jump until JAN 1 2015 which would mean from Nov 5 to Jan 1
we would have been basically flat lined close to a diff of 40 . Plug that into your calculators and mining looks a little better then the negative talk we have heard.
a 55 day period with 0 growth looks like a very good chance . WOW
Who would have ever thought this a few months ago? I am kind of wondering why? You think the equipment that is being sold is not new but sold from farms? Or do we have new equipment sells not keeping up with decommissioned and/or undervolted equipment?
I think dragons are going off line. I think s-2's are going off line. I think s-1's and s-1 mods are going off line. I think 2 watt gear is going off line.
Lastly I think the sp20's being sold were mining so when they sold they came off line get shipped and go back on line.
so no real gain in hashpower.
I think this is true of s-3's
I think this is true of s-4's
I like this if it is true as the asic builders would be diff controlling rather then price controlling. I believe if they do this for dec to april most miners will do well. and diff will not be much over 50 by april 1.
Of course I could be wrong.
Your theory only works if the ASIC manufacturers stopped making new miners. But we know that's not the case. So even if they are pre-mining, where is the hash from the next wave of consumer gear that they are supposedly mining with now? They're most likely still cranking them out so shouldn't the hashrate continue to rise?
I don't think Spondoolies and Bitmain pre-mine... at least not a significant amount. But don't we all know that home mining is just a small fraction of the network hashrate these days? So when the new batches are sold, they dont make a noticeable bump in the hashrate.
The only explanation that makes sense is that the big players (Bitfury, KNC, ASICMiner, etc.) aren't opening new DCs and are probably mothballing old, inefficient datacenters. But be warned, this lull will not last. The next wave of super-efficient ASICs will soon be hitting the loading docks by the container-loads at DCs near the North Pole. And Santa isn't running the show!
I do agree with one thing this will be a 2 or 3 jump lull.
but and here is the big but the big 5 or 4
bitfury, knc, asicminer, bitmain-tech and maybe spondoolies produce 80-90 percent of the gear.
if home miners only buy 10 percent and a few big players buy 20 percent for low power DC's that mean the builders are mining 70 percent of the coins.
This means network growth hurts them. Since they need to grow to keep 70 percent share of coins.
So there best incentive is to growth the network slower and just swap more power efficient gear.
ie swap a pair s-2's for an s-4 and that is a score for them energy wise. scale it up 1000x or 10000x same network hashpower at half the power cost.They can just store some of the older gear since s-2's won't sell Or pull the heatsinks and the psu's and put them on the s-4's. Since the big builders have 70 percent of all mining between them the slower growth keeps the mining making money.
The only way this fully changes is one of the big builders can make a .07 watt machine for a decent cost thus giving them an edge. (KNC says they will do this)
If they do and it works the shit hits the fan. Now maybe they take till May to do it. Maybe . BY then my winter mining is done and my boost for 2-3th to 9th will have paid off. So In the meantime miners like me are enjoying this. I went big selling off a lot of s-3's and converting them to sp20's/
If diff drops to 39 I am good into Jan. If the lull continues all of Jan I am paid off for the switch by Feb 1. At that time I could mine more or maybe just sell the gear. All of which is profit
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty >>>>>>>
(-2.45%)that is this morning's number it means a lot if it stays under 40 diff in the next 9 days. That means all of dec will be at 39-40.
Since the next jump would come about Jan 1.
