Over the past months, we have been bombarded with articles about the global de-dollarisation, how countries will quit using the USD, how the petrodollar is doomed, how the entire US economy is doomed once the usd is dropped, how the Zimbabwean dollar, the Argentian peso, the bolivar, the Iranian rial and other, can we even all them currencies? will definitely replace the dollar for trade settlements. And, if you're not so bright, it makes perfect sense, the evil greenback is holding the economies of emergent countries down, it's not corruption, it's not stupidity, it's not the lack of planning, the one who is to blame is the $.
So, some leaders have come up with the idea, let's trade in our currency and prosper! Except for the fact that when you leave the realm of politics and propaganda for your voters and you enter the realm of economy, well, shit happens!
https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/in-focus/story/we-need-to-use-this-money-russia-says-it-is-unable-to-utilise-billions-of-indian-rupees-380345-2023-05-07And the whole thing is pretty simple:
- there is no perfect trade balance between two countries, one will run a trade deficit with the other so one will end with a ton of useless monopoly money
- in order to use the monopoly money to trade with country C it would need to either convert them to a hard currency that everyone wants like the $, or to the other country's fiat but at this point, you would have to trick them into accepting your surplus useless currency and who would want that?
Anyone who has read a bit of history would know about the Weimar inflation, it was caused mainly because Germany printed monopoly money to exchange them for $, and thus their own currency failed, because nobody wanted the Papiermark. And this is where we arrive to exactly the bilateral India-Russia trade:
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Friday said that Russia has accumulated billions of rupees in Indian banks which it can’t use. This is a problem, Lavrov told reporters in Goa on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting, reported Bloomberg.
“We need to use this money. But for this, these rupees must be transferred in another currency, and this is being discussed now,” he said, as per the report.
Simple as that, ruble-rupee trade is good until you need to use all those money, and for the use, you have to exchange it into a trustable currency, at which point you realize nobody is taking monopoly money India can print unrestrained for good old $!
The chances of more countries using their useless fiat in order to settle trades?
Just as much as every single one of you denying a Bitcoin payment and choosing to be paid in PooGrow, which
is an actual coin, btw!
I don't think dedollarisation is failing. More like it's in initial embryo stage and many things have to be done for the first time which makes things harder. I don't think in times of digital money there can be any issue with exchanging money. I don't think India really pays in paper money which is being held in a vault? They can sell rupees to some other country doing trade with India or pay for Indian goods etc. Or, even better, they can buy Bitcoin and then sell Bitcoin for rubles.