How about this one?
89413 2014-06-17 15:31:02 (4 months ago) 6332 2 0a1786392958e2d55657655a2c308aa0c26473ab09501c91be7d128c8b506195
89412 2014-06-17 15:30:58 (4 months ago) 1720 2 c306c29bbd60ca41a05ae3feafafa6c1a1b1e93675b1a6d50fc8d7284c6bd7d3
89411 2014-06-17 15:30:45 (4 months ago) 6344 3 4f7e8a1c1d89c2c2cedceaf4ac6515a9b7512e7a9faccfc21acc2bd9733740c9
89410 2014-06-17 15:30:07 (4 months ago) 23272 2 c6d244e04688f7a769edcc748ff57e5ca0d86fc4f5911d9e7845c70196fb306b
89409 2014-06-17 15:29:53 (4 months ago) 331 1 d8900b95d30dcbb15ed586cba37768cafa234c31689e2a1be4f80f72e2aff835
89408 2014-06-17 15:29:25 (4 months ago) 1147 2 0090f7ec2867ccaf2a39f3d1fe1a05d0d8e1519dfe36887958e0148a798a70a9
89407 2014-06-17 15:28:59 (4 months ago) 331 1 88e12f2cad7fa4f9f54f39b31172aed654790e7210bd1040361fe29bd6a2189c
89406 2014-06-17 15:28:56 (4 months ago) 4920 5 ed4f140e0d634870c1d6fe91032e57955b8952968abb2698669c7e8f255a32d7
89405 2014-06-17 15:25:59 (4 months ago) 1933 2 03614f0a6c7d497e985e2a2731a2a96ccbf2e2bc69436010057f88313d89f5f9
89404 2014-06-17 15:25:49 (4 months ago) 12081 4 c8967711d2e97f06908ad51d9f2d723534a4f858eff0958a5471f590cfa4f030
89403 2014-06-17 15:23:55 (4 months ago) 331 1 defdc625b9b6768a084dae9355cc01fce3b5a84f6b1b263bcafd74330a6d5923
89402 2014-06-17 15:23:46 (4 months ago) 10175 3 b51fbe78bbc7d161f97aba2a3b3ed36f874885622cc6c4b807156305cf8afc10
89401 2014-06-17 15:23:17 (4 months ago) 331 1 3dee937d493e32e41dcbd39185b6591a367ed4f2af344efa886ce6c2bef17e2e
note: this is found within a 10 hour window of the first event. moving onto looking for ones after aug 1st.
Topic: delete - page 57. (Read 165521 times)
How is the sun treating you?
Are you feeling better?
Are you feeling better?
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say both Risto and BCX are functioning in their proper roles. Risto is arrogant to the point of predicting the technical likelyhood of something he doesn't understand in a typical buericratic way. BCX is the joker personality type that will always exist. These personalty types play out again and again. Anonymous vs Scientology, etc.
Which is Putin and which is Obama?
Whos to say that BCX would have even bet, the guy is full of shit and could have easily backed out. He has no credibility and integrity to maintain. He took a chance that Risto wouldn't bet in order to give credibility to the FUD. BCX you little fudster you.... lol
Poker players know probabilities.
I know xulescu addressed this as a misperception, but how can something that happened after the announced attack have contributed to the attack.
Afair, fluffypony did that during the 72 hour countdown, before the decision to attack had become final. I am not referring to the copy+paste of the feedback from the mathematicians, rather the prior exchange upthread.
I believe also Risto's proclamation of the likelihood occurred during the 72 hour countdown.
Hey I am not saying any body did anything out of their roles. This is a soap opera ya know. I'm included.
I know xulescu addressed this as a misperception, but how can something that happened after the announced attack have contributed to the attack.
It was not misperception. Fluffypony, like I earlier, got pissed off and used aggressive words. That was a communication mistake.
But that doesn't change your point.
Your model very conveniently ignores a 4-blocks-per-minute minute.
Incorrect.
My model asks how many blocks occur during each 1 minute interval, i.e. the Poisson distribution which afaik Meni Rosenfeld has used in his famous whitepapers.
I substituted 1 block in an empty interval, because 0! = 1!. No difference.
Edit: I think what may motivate BCX is defeating overconfidence.
I don't think the devs have been overconfident at all, on the contrary. Maybe I am. But what is BCX's problem?
You apparently forgot that Risto predicted in public only a 4 - 8% chance that BCX could attack.
Perhaps you've forgotten fluffypony's confidence upthread, he said basically until there is an attack there is no attack and he is going to the beach.
OTOH, some of the developers have been openly concerned, such as smooth and NewLiberty have tried to investigate and implement improvements. Perhaps fluffypony did too behind the scenes, I am only commenting about his public demeanor in that one instance.
I know xulescu addressed this as a misperception, but how can something that happened after the announced attack have contributed to the attack.
~~why is chaos sweet?~~
This cat and mouse game became very tiring and you are gasping for air. I do not get pleasure from "winning" this argument. I think all interested partied can learn something from this exchange and will terminate it here.
Your model very conveniently ignores a 4-blocks-per-minute minute. Put that in, take the last minute out and redo the math. Otherwise explain why it only seems that your model very conveniently ignores it.
Edit: Finally, do you have confidence in your model or not? This affects your confidence that something changed, according to your model.
Your model very conveniently ignores a 4-blocks-per-minute minute. Put that in, take the last minute out and redo the math. Otherwise explain why it only seems that your model very conveniently ignores it.
Edit: Finally, do you have confidence in your model or not? This affects your confidence that something changed, according to your model.
Yes that is good. But that is one in past 4 months. That still points to it being a rare event. If you find them more frequently before July (when BCX allegedly might have begun experiments), then that would refute the recent one being rare.
Again the recent rare event doesn't indicate an attack is ongoing. I was only skeptical about the assertion that it wasn't rare.
Note I'm not concerned economically in any way, shape or form with pretty much anything to do with whatever this is. I see interesting math, and I'd like to understand better the probability of distribution of block times for cryptocurrencies, because most all I hear about is expected block frequencies when it comes to the technical end.
It's as if the entire forum is just a giant economics and morality textbook since the day I've gotten here, mostly barren of anything I can take home with me besides another dollar in my pocket, or in many cases a dollar less. I'm so tired of that.
I'll keep looking for another, actually I'll look for three more. One more before july and two more after May 1.
Edit: I think what may motivate BCX is defeating overconfidence.
I don't think the devs have been overconfident at all, on the contrary. Maybe I am. But what is BCX's problem?
You apparently forgot that Risto predicted in public only a 4 - 8% chance that BCX could attack.
Perhaps you've forgotten fluffypony's confidence upthread, he said basically until there is an attack there is no attack and he is going to the beach.
OTOH, some of the developers have been openly concerned, such as smooth and NewLiberty have tried to investigate and implement improvements. Perhaps fluffypony did too behind the scenes, I am only commenting about his public demeanor in that one instance.
I don't understand how you think geographics affects the model? Isn't clustering modeled by Poisson?
I do not assume independence. You do. I cannot assume Poisson, I look at the data and see it isn't.
What does geographics have to do with it? Specifics please.
4 times in 1.5 hours. 3 months ago.
Anecdotal evidence against your claim.
Absolutely not. That was a complete fail. That was only 1 time interval of 1 minute. The event I analyzed as being extremely rare was 4 intervals of 1 minute consecutively.
I've given readers the education they need to go hunting in the block chain to see if they can find comparably rare events.
What's interesting to me is that he said "roughly", he said "at present time" and said it three months ago. I hardly see how this could still be accurate.
You make sweeping ass-u-me-ptions. Do you actually have your mind deep in the Github commits?
Within a factor of 5 to what? What do you compare it to?
How does this fail my claim? You changed the experiment in the middle of the experiment. Again, what do you compare that to, to conclude it fails a margin?
0.8% and 1.25% seem within my margin, and they're not even the values for the initial experiment and not even directly comparable (you compare 6 gaps to 5 gaps).
How does this fail my claim? You changed the experiment in the middle of the experiment. Again, what do you compare that to, to conclude it fails a margin?
0.8% and 1.25% seem within my margin, and they're not even the values for the initial experiment and not even directly comparable (you compare 6 gaps to 5 gaps).
You are entirely missing the point that the example we started to debate about had 4 time intervals of 1 minute. The probable reason all your statistical analysis may be irrelevant (can't say for sure because yours is closed source) is because you are purportedly looking at "gaps" and not at 1 minute intervals. Afaics, you've likely got the wrong model, so you aren't seeing anything.
So you ignore permutations and variants, change the experiment twice and still don't manage to get it your way?
I didn't change the experiment. You framed the experiment inconsistently. There aren't 12 gaps, rather there were 4 time intervals of 1 minute. If you have the wrong model, you see noise.
I don't have to consider permutations because there are 2+ orders-of-magnitude between the probabilities I showed. There is the stratification I am referring to. We could get more analytical, but really isn't necessary. It is quite obvious that we saw a rare event. And no one has shown otherwise yet.
Also, put error bars on your numbers. Your confidence will drop significantly if you did that.
All of the them will so the relative 2+ orders-of-magnitude will likely remain.
Are we sure there are no symptoms already?
Well let's put it this way. My argument so far is that there aren't. Suppose I was wrong and there were symptoms. Smoothie's argument was that it wouldn't matter anyway. If I was wrong, BCX claimed they would bring chaos. They didn't.
That is illogical. The overt chaos doesn't hit until his estimate of 22 days. The chaos that would be happening now is hidden to those who use incorrect statistical models. That is why I am hunting.
In fact I again openly invite any Global Mod, Badbear or Theymos to Permaban me if I am Moneroman88.
This is a vacuous claim. You could be Moneroman88 in many ways in which none of those would know.
I also thought of that. Surely he is sophisticated enough to conceal his IP.
Wild speculation follows.
But even if Moneroman88 is a sockpuppet, it doesn't exclude a possible motivation being to teach a lesson to the community. In that case, MM88 would just be some political cover.
My theory is BCX has the ability to manipulate either block lengths or the timestamps for minutes at a time.
Block lengths don't exist, there are only timestamps (or the differential, gaps). As smoothie argued, everyone can "manipulate" them because it is not enforced in any way. It is also not very useful to do so.
You ass-u-me that is not a vulnerability. Can you prove it is not?
Last one I'll look for before I hear back, maybe this one can help you?
Blocks are totally sequential, but one of the groups of two is a group of three, so two groups of 4, a group of three within the same minute, and a group of two within the same minute. Maybe thats even more rare than the event you asked for?
it's a 13 block window, in 6 minutes.
89968 2014-06-18 00:05:54 (4 months ago) 24795 4 dfb8ba9a0b745e36ffa02254a531cf93458f8d56fe4ed043aa8c77f7d97227f0
89967 2014-06-18 00:05:30 (4 months ago) 20994 6 a5c0cab928c8f6c007c62d7a5afe53e58f54eeda4a89ecc34dbf94511fd5c031
89966 2014-06-18 00:03:18 (4 months ago) 2594 2 cc2e92864395868e445179288b69be2e01e38e3f23f89ca2099a8b8862ccabbb
89965 2014-06-18 00:03:12 (4 months ago) 332 1 e3aaa0903294c6d524ffc78c1304b68cb30bf4c0ee3fe4725d57cfa8e5778290
89964 2014-06-18 00:02:52 (4 months ago) 332 1 6c92a2ea92f425e9a8ef035730b2fc0585c85cce8c83965e929dcd28e955995a
89963 2014-06-18 00:02:37 (4 months ago) 332 1 e93355ed89bb06237adf0b78dd72b7fd20f10daa32760b657415e5f27e3bb301
89962 2014-06-18 00:02:35 (4 months ago) 22631 2 ef6bdf2429428dc752d0eae80ed0d151814f52ac6bdd7a01793a8978ee7673a3
89961 2014-06-18 00:02:26 (4 months ago) 7267 2 3d33195a90d825316998f59a810d8b8427508a640bd430efa3e87ca7a907a05a
89960 2014-06-18 00:02:24 (4 months ago) 21847 6 0b6f624332dfab3113d867eb2c7c140f5bb30437807f01d9da558f572184c288
89959 2014-06-18 00:00:40 (4 months ago) 332 1 ee978852972ca2d2ab8cfa3fe9bcb091eed6ecea4af202075370678f5daaadca
89958 2014-06-18 00:00:53 (4 months ago) 5128 4 95f381dc5893136258139432c0861abaf1cd383ef47a28ac4dc703729ae12de9
89957 2014-06-18 00:00:11 (4 months ago) 332 1 7b2b9416cb979e2cbc795252fcdf78af1c75098f1ec3daad35c647cccabf2aed
89956 2014-06-17 23:59:55 (4 months ago) 1334 2 a37439d68281951b2d40fdf52f72087a28f882166a643024d7462db63b1f88eb
Blocks are totally sequential, but one of the groups of two is a group of three, so two groups of 4, a group of three within the same minute, and a group of two within the same minute. Maybe thats even more rare than the event you asked for?
it's a 13 block window, in 6 minutes.
89968 2014-06-18 00:05:54 (4 months ago) 24795 4 dfb8ba9a0b745e36ffa02254a531cf93458f8d56fe4ed043aa8c77f7d97227f0
89967 2014-06-18 00:05:30 (4 months ago) 20994 6 a5c0cab928c8f6c007c62d7a5afe53e58f54eeda4a89ecc34dbf94511fd5c031
89966 2014-06-18 00:03:18 (4 months ago) 2594 2 cc2e92864395868e445179288b69be2e01e38e3f23f89ca2099a8b8862ccabbb
89965 2014-06-18 00:03:12 (4 months ago) 332 1 e3aaa0903294c6d524ffc78c1304b68cb30bf4c0ee3fe4725d57cfa8e5778290
89964 2014-06-18 00:02:52 (4 months ago) 332 1 6c92a2ea92f425e9a8ef035730b2fc0585c85cce8c83965e929dcd28e955995a
89963 2014-06-18 00:02:37 (4 months ago) 332 1 e93355ed89bb06237adf0b78dd72b7fd20f10daa32760b657415e5f27e3bb301
89962 2014-06-18 00:02:35 (4 months ago) 22631 2 ef6bdf2429428dc752d0eae80ed0d151814f52ac6bdd7a01793a8978ee7673a3
89961 2014-06-18 00:02:26 (4 months ago) 7267 2 3d33195a90d825316998f59a810d8b8427508a640bd430efa3e87ca7a907a05a
89960 2014-06-18 00:02:24 (4 months ago) 21847 6 0b6f624332dfab3113d867eb2c7c140f5bb30437807f01d9da558f572184c288
89959 2014-06-18 00:00:40 (4 months ago) 332 1 ee978852972ca2d2ab8cfa3fe9bcb091eed6ecea4af202075370678f5daaadca
89958 2014-06-18 00:00:53 (4 months ago) 5128 4 95f381dc5893136258139432c0861abaf1cd383ef47a28ac4dc703729ae12de9
89957 2014-06-18 00:00:11 (4 months ago) 332 1 7b2b9416cb979e2cbc795252fcdf78af1c75098f1ec3daad35c647cccabf2aed
89956 2014-06-17 23:59:55 (4 months ago) 1334 2 a37439d68281951b2d40fdf52f72087a28f882166a643024d7462db63b1f88eb
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say both Risto and BCX are functioning in their proper roles. Risto is arrogant to the point of predicting the technical likelyhood of something he doesn't understand in a typical buericratic way. BCX is the joker personality type that will always exist. These personalty types play out again and again. Anonymous vs Scientology, etc.
The only thing that matters is "can the coin survive whatever attack BCX has planned"
Both his willingness to puff up like a puffer fish and Risto trying to calm investor fears with dismissal coated in his "analysis" really are not the crux of the issue. I don't get why people have a problem with BCX or care if other people think Risto pervoked him.
This scenario will play out as long as there is top down trying to lead the sheep (risto) and joker personality types who get their rocks off showing how "weak" the system & both are interacting with each other over the world wide web.
Maybe risto provoked him? Maybe he didn't? Who cares? BCX is doing nothing wrong and neither is rpetilia.
The only thing that matters is "can the coin survive whatever attack BCX has planned"
Both his willingness to puff up like a puffer fish and Risto trying to calm investor fears with dismissal coated in his "analysis" really are not the crux of the issue. I don't get why people have a problem with BCX or care if other people think Risto pervoked him.
This scenario will play out as long as there is top down trying to lead the sheep (risto) and joker personality types who get their rocks off showing how "weak" the system & both are interacting with each other over the world wide web.
Maybe risto provoked him? Maybe he didn't? Who cares? BCX is doing nothing wrong and neither is rpetilia.
Remember Risto issued the 4 - 8% proclamation of the likelihood of a BCX attack while the 72 hour deadline was ongoing. One could ponder if this might have caused BCX to not call off the threatened (unconfirmed) attack. There was some progress on trying to find any vulnerabilities, so perhaps one could ponder if he might have called off the threat citing progress and cooperation.
The reason for not just handing over the vulnerability and fix, may be to illustrate the competence and to teach the community.
The reason for not just handing over the vulnerability and fix, may be to illustrate the competence and to teach the community.
Are you suggesting Risto should feel guilty for BCX's continued wrath?
Were we looking for vulnerabilities with a BCX quota?
The ALLEGED vulnerability.
But you are otherwise an excellent devil's advocate.
My more substantive post is here in case you missed it on the previous page
...
Edit: I think I know exactly what your mistake is. You assume the sample in the screenshot is uniformly sampled. But it is not, because it is chosen adversarially, to prove the point BCX was making (that is it a strange ocurrence).
But perhaps his appraisal was near to some threshold and some events pushed him over the edge and he decided to force the XMR community to prove it is worthy or insolent. Just one possible theory for the chain of events.
Remember Risto issued the 4 - 8% proclamation of the likelihood of a BCX attack while the 72 hour deadline was ongoing. One could ponder if this might have caused BCX to not call off the attack. There was some progress on trying to find any vulnerabilities, so perhaps one could ponder if he might have called off the threat citing progress and cooperation [if Risto didn't assert that BCX is not a credible threat].
But just five posts up he says he's still attacking? I mean if we are guessing that he called it off for certain reasons and make the assumption that our guesses are more accurate than his stated intentions within the last few hours isn't that a little insane?
Please re-read what I wrote. I didn't posit that the attack is called off.
Yep. I misread.
But perhaps his appraisal was near to some threshold and some events pushed him over the edge and he decided to force the XMR community to prove it is worthy or insolent. Just one possible theory for the chain of events.
Remember Risto issued the 4 - 8% proclamation of the likelihood of a BCX attack while the 72 hour deadline was ongoing. One could ponder if this might have caused BCX to not call off the attack. There was some progress on trying to find any vulnerabilities, so perhaps one could ponder if he might have called off the threat citing progress and cooperation [if Risto didn't assert that BCX is not a credible threat].
But just five posts up he says he's still attacking? I mean if we are guessing that he called it off for certain reasons and make the assumption that our guesses are more accurate than his stated intentions within the last few hours isn't that a little insane?
Please re-read what I wrote. I didn't posit that the attack is called off.
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