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Topic: Did I do the right thing? (Read 1265 times)

legendary
Activity: 4466
Merit: 3391
October 14, 2013, 12:58:51 AM
#25
One week of mining at 20GH/s will get me about $180 in a month considering I've made $46 in a week or $540/month with both blades and the BFL unit mining in parallel (considering no difficulty increase). At this rate I will brake even in 6 months but my goal was to hold onto my bit coins and pay off my investment with fiat money. It is a risk I was willing to take from the start, I've made much worse decisions before...
But, don't you know that the difficulty is increasing about 30% every 11 days? Do you understand what effect that will have on your earnings?
You say you currently make $540 per month, or roughly $18 per day. Over the next 11 days you will make $180, and then you will make 30% less, or $126, over the following 11 days,  and so on. Let's look at what you will make (rounded to the nearest dollar):
DaysIncomeTotal Income
11$180$180
22$126$306
33$ 88$394
44$ 62$456
55$ 43$499
66$ 30$529
77$ 21$551
88$ 15$565
99$ 10$576
110$ 7$583
121$ 5$588
132$ 4$592
143$ 2$594
154$ 2$596
165$ 1$597
176$ 1$598
187$ 1$599
After 6 months, you will have earned only $600, not $2500.
Thank you for breaking it down, I had no idea that difficulty goes up this dramatically so fast. Time to get rid of the miners then...

Keep in mind that these numbers are probably not accurate. The difficulty has been going up at this rate for 8 months now, but it can't keep going like this forever. Eventually, it will have to slow down and it is not clear when that will happen.

My actual prediction is that the difficulty will continue rising at this pace for another 3 months before its starts to flatten out. I predict that it will go up an average of 20% every 12 days in the end, and each GH/s mining now will earn a total of less than 0.14 BTC. It is not quite as dramatic as the table above, but your 60 GH/s will earn only 8.4 BTC, which is less than what you paid.
sr. member
Activity: 274
Merit: 250
October 14, 2013, 12:06:53 AM
#24
BFL is a scam
newbie
Activity: 13
Merit: 0
October 14, 2013, 12:05:09 AM
#23
One week of mining at 20GH/s will get me about $180 in a month considering I've made $46 in a week or $540/month with both blades and the BFL unit mining in parallel (considering no difficulty increase). At this rate I will brake even in 6 months but my goal was to hold onto my bit coins and pay off my investment with fiat money. It is a risk I was willing to take from the start, I've made much worse decisions before...

But, don't you know that the difficulty is increasing about 30% every 11 days? Do you understand what effect that will have on your earnings?

You say you currently make $540 per month, or roughly $18 per day. Over the next 11 days you will make $180, and then you will make 30% less, or $126, over the following 11 days,  and so on. Let's look at what you will make (rounded to the nearest dollar):

DaysIncomeTotal Income
11$180$180
22$126$306
33$ 88$394
44$ 62$456
55$ 43$499
66$ 30$529
77$ 21$551
88$ 15$565
99$ 10$576
110$ 7$583
121$ 5$588
132$ 4$592
143$ 2$594
154$ 2$596
165$ 1$597
176$ 1$598
187$ 1$599

After 6 months, you will have earned only $600, not $2500.

Thank you for breaking it down, I had no idea that difficulty goes up this dramatically so fast. Time to get rid of the miners then...
sr. member
Activity: 274
Merit: 250
October 13, 2013, 08:53:28 PM
#22
you always did
legendary
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1029
October 13, 2013, 04:06:08 PM
#21
It's better to invest by buying than in mining.
If you really really want to mine, start mining scrypt coins with GPU's. Note: don't buy anything without proper research/advice on rigs.

I'd suggest mining with diamond coin, this bitcoin mining compare calculator told me it's 300% more profitable.
legendary
Activity: 4466
Merit: 3391
October 13, 2013, 03:04:38 PM
#20
One week of mining at 20GH/s will get me about $180 in a month considering I've made $46 in a week or $540/month with both blades and the BFL unit mining in parallel (considering no difficulty increase). At this rate I will brake even in 6 months but my goal was to hold onto my bit coins and pay off my investment with fiat money. It is a risk I was willing to take from the start, I've made much worse decisions before...

But, don't you know that the difficulty is increasing about 30% every 11 days? Do you understand what effect that will have on your earnings?

You say you currently make $540 per month, or roughly $18 per day. Over the next 11 days you will make $180, and then you will make 30% less, or $126, over the following 11 days,  and so on. Let's look at what you will make (rounded to the nearest dollar):

DaysIncomeTotal Income
11$180$180
22$126$306
33$ 88$394
44$ 62$456
55$ 43$499
66$ 30$529
77$ 21$551
88$ 15$565
99$ 10$576
110$ 7$583
121$ 5$588
132$ 4$592
143$ 2$594
154$ 2$596
165$ 1$597
176$ 1$598
187$ 1$599

After 6 months, you will have earned only $600, not $2500.
newbie
Activity: 13
Merit: 0
October 13, 2013, 01:17:50 PM
#19
Alright, so the bitcoin frenzy caught me big time ... having spend about $2500 on mining hardware already.
My biggest fear is that once mining becomes unprofitable I won't even be able to sell the hardware for half the cost.

I'm curios if anyone else is in the same boat or I just deserve to be smacked.

There are a lot of people in the same boat as you and you all deserve to be smacked. Just the fact that you have invested $2500 in mining equipment without any idea of how much bitcoin you might mine is solid evidence that you have made a huge mistake.

It's not clear from your posts what you got for your $2500, but I hope that you got at least 120 GH/s. That's how much you will need to break even on a $2500 investment if you start mining now. My prediction of the break-even price for 1 GH/s is about 0.18 BTC (before expenses).

Selling your used equipment won't work (in theory). The value of your equipment will fall slightly faster than the difficulty rises, and even more if you overpaid. In a month, your equipment will be worth less than half of what it is worth now.


One week of mining at 20GH/s will get me about $180 in a month considering I've made $46 in a week or $540/month with both blades and the BFL unit mining in parallel (considering no difficulty increase). At this rate I will brake even in 6 months but my goal was to hold onto my bit coins and pay off my investment with fiat money. It is a risk I was willing to take from the start, I've made much worse decisions before...
member
Activity: 167
Merit: 10
October 12, 2013, 05:39:16 PM
#18
Mining is only for group buys and people with enormous starting capital now Tongue


Not if your courious and just want to try it a little as a hobby
sr. member
Activity: 938
Merit: 255
SmartFi - EARN, LEND & TRADE
October 12, 2013, 05:32:56 PM
#17
Mining is only for group buys and people with enormous starting capital now Tongue
legendary
Activity: 4466
Merit: 3391
October 12, 2013, 05:26:17 PM
#16
Alright, so the bitcoin frenzy caught me big time ... having spend about $2500 on mining hardware already.
My biggest fear is that once mining becomes unprofitable I won't even be able to sell the hardware for half the cost.

I'm curios if anyone else is in the same boat or I just deserve to be smacked.

There are a lot of people in the same boat as you and you all deserve to be smacked. Just the fact that you have invested $2500 in mining equipment without any idea of how much bitcoin you might mine is solid evidence that you have made a huge mistake.

It's not clear from your posts what you got for your $2500, but I hope that you got at least 120 GH/s. That's how much you will need to break even on a $2500 investment if you start mining now. My prediction of the break-even price for 1 GH/s is about 0.18 BTC (before expenses).

Selling your used equipment won't work (in theory). The value of your equipment will fall slightly faster than the difficulty rises, and even more if you overpaid. In a month, your equipment will be worth less than half of what it is worth now.
full member
Activity: 127
Merit: 100
October 12, 2013, 05:04:09 PM
#15
Don't buy BFL!! Haven't you read that everyone didn't get their BFL until 12 months later? Shocked

Thats true, and while their products are shipping faster now, compettitors offer better deals in my opinion
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
October 12, 2013, 05:01:05 PM
#14
Don't buy BFL!! Haven't you read that everyone didn't get their BFL until 12 months later? Shocked
full member
Activity: 120
Merit: 100
October 12, 2013, 04:45:16 PM
#13
Once the difficulty starts to pan out, consider purchasing some hardware.


Will be interesting how low the price per 1GH/s can go next year. I waiting where the difficulty stop before considering buying...
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
October 12, 2013, 10:07:44 AM
#12
Mine alts also  Cheesy
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
October 12, 2013, 01:18:40 AM
#11
Just buy Bitcoin instead will get your further, but since you already bought why not sell it while it still have values Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1090
Learning the troll avoidance button :)
October 12, 2013, 01:17:55 AM
#10
What's the problem with BFL? In my case I already paid for it so I will have it delivered in a couple of days (ebay auction).

Was about to say the damn things don't deliver but if you got one from ebay I guess that works
Still 200/GH for same price as a BFL 60/GH interesting

But agree with Dhenson on the points above to an extent the calculator shows profit though so interesting

Are the 200/GH units ready to ship or pre-orders? This sounds very intriguing...

Not quite sure looks soon btcgarden looks like they are shipping very soon unlike labcoin
It's a Chinese company though
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3298572

Anyways have fun with it

Cheers

PS: I edited it re-looked at difficulty was a negative by january
newbie
Activity: 13
Merit: 0
October 12, 2013, 01:15:13 AM
#9
What's the problem with BFL? In my case I already paid for it so I will have it delivered in a couple of days (ebay auction).

Was about to say the damn things don't deliver but if you got one from ebay I guess that works
Still 200/GH for same price as a BFL 60/GH interesting

But agree with Dhenson on the points above to an extent the calculator shows profit though so interesting

Are the 200/GH units ready to ship or pre-orders? This sounds very intriguing...
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1090
Learning the troll avoidance button :)
October 12, 2013, 01:10:05 AM
#8
What's the problem with BFL? In my case I already paid for it so I will have it delivered in a couple of days (ebay auction).

Was about to say the damn things don't deliver but if you got one from ebay I guess that works
Still 200/GH for same price as a BFL 60/GH interesting

But agree with Dhenson on the points above to an extent (Nvm loss)
newbie
Activity: 13
Merit: 0
October 12, 2013, 01:07:10 AM
#7
What's the problem with BFL? In my case I already paid for it so I will have it delivered in a couple of days (ebay auction).
legendary
Activity: 994
Merit: 1000
October 12, 2013, 01:03:14 AM
#6
If you have cash on hand, buy btc and hold it.  There isn't a miner or pre-order that exists where you would make more btc for your USD. And this goes without saying, but never buy a miner with bitcoin... The days of that being profitable are over forever.

If you are using a credit card, I would suggest KNC as they are the only one to my knowledge that currently accepts CC, or wait a week or two, as Hashfast is about to add Credit cards to their payment options.  Most likely the USD you spend on a miner will make you money because of the BTC/USD exchange rate.  This isn't really a profit from mining, rather a profit from hedging the falling price of USD vs. BTC. (if it were possible to buy BTC with CC I would be telling you to do that instead of mining)

Don't buy anything with + 1W/GH power consumption, that means KNC, Hashfast, Bitfury or Cointerra are your only options (VMC is a joke).

Cointerra has missed their tape-out deadline so don't plan on those coming in on time.
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