I seriously think we are headed down to 200 or lower, there's no reason for bitcoin to be this expensive. Bitcoin is used for transferring value from person to person without anyone in the middle taking an outrageous fee. The ONLY reason bitcoin should be higher priced is if there isn't enough value in bitcoins to hold the amount of wealth the community as a whole would like to transfer and frankly... no one uses it for that atm. It has plenty of room to move down and still be extremely functional for what it was intended to do.
As Warren Buffet says, it's silly to think Bitcoin has some giant intrinsic value, especially in it's infancy... the value is the blockchain, it functions exactly the same no matter how high the price is, and until people start using it for its intended purposes and not just a speculative investment, we will always be in "bubble territory".
Granted, there will always be investors in every single asset. But right now, its an overwhelming unbalance of speculation, with barely anyone actually using it for it's intended purpose other than the few.
I'm starting to feel like too many people's futures are dependent on the next bitcoin bubble and that this is going to be a self-fulfilling prophecy. The only thing a giant group of people with greed in their eyes are going to cause is a bubble.
If you truly care about bitcoin and feel it's the future, start using it for it's intended purpose or we will never get passed where we are now. Don't buy it.... say "I'm pro bitcoin, it's the future!", sell it when it rises at a profit and continue using the same fiat system you speak so negatively about..
It just goes to show that when it comes to profit, bitcoin doesn't mean all that much, and lets face it: Most of you only know of bitcoin due to the bubbles, you're here for a profit.
I fully agree with that. Bitcoin's fundamental is merchant adoption.
The demand for bitcoin as a means of payment is the real fundamental of the price. In other words, the market share it can take in the fiat market as a currency. For the moment, that is still very very low, but it is growing.
The funny thing is that it gets frowned upon by "bitcoin bulls" because it "lowers the price with all that dumping", while it brings bitcoin exactly towards (one of) its fundamentals.
Of course, on top of that, there are two other contributions:
1) long-term store of value (which is not credible right now with such a short-lived and volatile asset) such as gold.
2) speculation on the future fundamentals (which Warren calls "bubble territory"). It is the dominant price determinant for the moment, and is totally unpredictable because it depends on the whims and beliefs of people.