Different odds for a same bet | Bitcointalksearch.org

Trofo

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Quote from: DarkStar_ on November 15, 2019, 10:30:18 PM

The main reason is because different outcomes will often have different margins. The most popular ones (ML, Spread, O/U) usually have low margins as they are generally more accurate and have more volume, while more "exotic" bets have higher margins. The backend raw probability should be very similar if not identical between each option.

I actually believe that there is more to this. I just started tracking these differences so I could be wrong but two games I checked out had bigger differences in odds as the kick off was coming nearer.

My working theory is that odds start with small difference due to different margins. Than users start betting on more popular markets causing them to drop more on favourite side. It seems that odds adjusting algorithm doesen't track wages across all same markets. Instead it works only on individual odds.

Now as I write this I realised that if my theory is correct the odds for favourite and underdog should be moving in different directions.

*In my post when you see word favourite it actually means market outcome that is getting more money, not the team which is more probable to win. Vice versa for underdog. Maybe there are better terms to use but it is still very early in my part of the world and my brain still needs some time and coffeine to hit working temperature.

DarkStar_

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Quote from: ralle14 on November 17, 2019, 07:18:06 PM

Those are only on the pre live odds though, once it's live all odds will be the same at least in the sportsbook i've used. Imo the reason why other pre live odds are higher on some markets because the limits are much smaller or they've set a lower profit margin for those markets to be competitive against other sportsbook.

That's not necessarily true. It might just happen to occur that way because live odds are generally all pretty bad, but even then, the margin still varies:

ralle14

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Those are only on the pre live odds though, once it's live all odds will be the same at least in the sportsbook i've used. Imo the reason why other pre live odds are higher on some markets because the limits are much smaller or they've set a lower profit margin for those markets to be competitive against other sportsbook.

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Quote from: Triffin on November 17, 2019, 12:44:41 PM

That is correct. All platforms or in this case websites come up with their own research and results. They all have different ways to collect data and then process it to get some meaningful result. Due to this, it is not astonishing to see a difference among their final predictions. So the best way to mark right answer is by doing some work on your own and then comparing it with others and choose the one with highest votes.

Doing your own research might be the same as the site's result that they get from their research. I agree to previous reply about having an error or the update of the odds might be delayed for some reason. It is possible that what they did to get their results is by comparing their results to others then choose the closest one.

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Quote from: YuginKadoya on November 15, 2019, 10:00:23 AM

I guess each website is basing their result within its researcher's research and sometimes the survey they get from different sports junkies and analysis will surely differ, well even though you are basing two or multiple websites doesn't mean they will have exact results as the others would be, In my opinion,

you would sure include your own research when getting your full results on the matter, I guess it is OK to have such a result for some variety purpose but if you would have any difficulties making a decision I think you can base on your own assumption regarding this matter.

That is correct. All platforms or in this case websites come up with their own research and results. They all have different ways to collect data and then process it to get some meaningful result. Due to this, it is not astonishing to see a difference among their final predictions. So the best way to mark right answer is by doing some work on your own and then comparing it with others and choose the one with highest votes.

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Quote from: hosseinimr93 on November 12, 2019, 03:39:03 PM

I am not comparing sport betting odds between two gambling websites. I am comparing the odds between two selections that are exactly same as each other in one website.
Here is an example from Turkey vs Iceland match which be held on November 14. (Odds are taken from sportsbet.io)

0-0: 9.40
under 0.5: 10.89
Exact goals=0: 10
which team to score=none: 11

Turkey exact goals=0: 4.50
Iceland Clean sheet: 4.40

Iceland exact goals=0: 2.24
Turkey clean sheet: 2.33

Any team to win=No: 3.50
Draw: 3.70

Turkey to win=No: 2.03
Double chance=Draw or Iceland=1.95

Why the odds are different for selections that are completely same as each other?

I guess most people don't understand what you are asking at all...

This is because bookies need to balance their Odds/Books.

Here is some info on the topic:

https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/odds-calculation-en/how-do-bookmakers-tick/

https://www.onlinebetting.org.uk/betting-guides/how-do-bookmakers-set-odds-and-make-money.html

Let's assume that all OP examples have the same starting odds. Like 11.

0-0: 11
under 0.5: 11
Exact goals=0: 11
which team to score=none: 11

Now, when somebody places a bet, the bookie needs to balance. Because of a sloppy software, using an external liquidity provider, not properly connecting markets with the same outcome, or any other reason, you see this:

0-0: 9.40
under 0.5: 10.89
Exact goals=0: 10
which team to score=none: 11

The best you can do it just to take the best odds

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Quote from: hosseinimr93 on November 12, 2019, 03:39:03 PM

I am not comparing sport betting odds between two gambling websites. I am comparing the odds between two selections that are exactly same as each other in one website.
Here is an example from Turkey vs Iceland match which be held on November 14. (Odds are taken from sportsbet.io)

0-0: 9.40
under 0.5: 10.89
Exact goals=0: 10
which team to score=none: 11

Turkey exact goals=0: 4.50
Iceland Clean sheet: 4.40

Iceland exact goals=0: 2.24
Turkey clean sheet: 2.33

Any team to win=No: 3.50
Draw: 3.70

Turkey to win=No: 2.03
Double chance=Draw or Iceland=1.95

Why the odds are different for selections that are completely same as each other?

IMO it's because of the bets of the users, the odds are different because users have bet differently on these outcomes.

rodel caling

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Honestly I can't experience that scenario, but is that possible if the site have an system error, or maybe you overlook the situation.

Quote from: DarkStar_ on November 15, 2019, 10:30:18 PM

The main reason is because different outcomes will often have different margins. The most popular ones (ML, Spread, O/U) usually have low margins as they are generally more accurate and have more volume, while more "exotic" bets have higher margins. The backend raw probability should be very similar if not identical between each option.

Yes possible mate they overlook the option of the margin bet of or maybe aystem error of the site.

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Quote from: DarkStar_ on November 15, 2019, 10:30:18 PM

The main reason is because different outcomes will often have different margins. The most popular ones (ML, Spread, O/U) usually have low margins as they are generally more accurate and have more volume, while more "exotic" bets have higher margins. The backend raw probability should be very similar if not identical between each option.

yeah indeed even though sometimes there are rare exceptions , like usually the under 0.5 line has better odds but in this case the none of teams scoring odds was slightly better

anyways guys this happens pretty much everywhere and is not rare at all ( except in pinnacle where usually it doesn't happen but I have seen it a lot of times where the moneyline have different odds than the -0.5 line )

so I would say there is no rule for this , usually as darkstar mentioned the popular markets tend to have better odds like you will see the +0.5 line better than the one in double chance but sometimes the opposite happens

in general this is a good lesson for everyone reading , try to check all the lines if you have time and not betting on the game live cause you will be missing value if you aren't doing so and trust me these exist a lot even in Bet365 ( this way you are costing the book more money , or at least giving it less money Cheesy

)

Latviand

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Giving my opinion, it's really rather confusing if you look at it at first and try to understand how the odds process. Though I'm pretty much on the side of the gambling sites just simply providing an algorithm for their system which resulted in the odds that is given by OP. They are relatively close to each other after all, that or gambling sites intentionally do such a thing to confuse their players. They take a survey of most odds that are taken by gamblers, and adjust the odds accordingly so that they profit a small margin after doing so. Its just my opinion though.

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Quote from: DarkStar_ on November 15, 2019, 10:30:18 PM

The main reason is because different outcomes will often have different margins. The most popular ones (ML, Spread, O/U) usually have low margins as they are generally more accurate and have more volume, while more "exotic" bets have higher margins. The backend raw probability should be very similar if not identical between each option.

Actually, yeah, this probably makes the most sense. I know some guys from school who still bet today exactly as they bet all those years ago. Not online, but bookies taking bets. And all of it is strictly Asian handicap, no ML, no spreads! Back home we don't have legal bookies and online betting is really shady with lots of fraud. I've tried to introduce a few times crypto bookies but old habits die hard.

I'd love to hear the take from an odds provider though!

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Quote from: hosseinimr93 on November 12, 2019, 03:39:03 PM

I am not comparing sport betting odds between two gambling websites. I am comparing the odds between two selections that are exactly same as each other in one website.
Here is an example from Turkey vs Iceland match which be held on November 14. (Odds are taken from sportsbet.io)

0-0: 9.40
under 0.5: 10.89
Exact goals=0: 10
which team to score=none: 11

Turkey exact goals=0: 4.50
Iceland Clean sheet: 4.40

Iceland exact goals=0: 2.24
Turkey clean sheet: 2.33

Any team to win=No: 3.50
Draw: 3.70

Turkey to win=No: 2.03
Double chance=Draw or Iceland=1.95

Why the odds are different for selections that are completely same as each other?

The odds are the most profitable in gambling, like in sports betting. If they are betting on the team that is confident of winning any many people bet on that particular team. The other side of the odds under has more chance of profit because the possibility of the group are smaller to win. Still, this kind of technique is favor to the people who love to play with risk and also to have fast money.

Quote from: GreatArkansas on November 12, 2019, 06:56:43 PM

Maybe because those websites has different odds provider.
Or maybe there's some error at your end? Like problem on your internet connection, have you tried to refresh the page if that is still the odds?
I am also surprised since most of the betting website I saw has different odds, especially in sportsbet.

There are a lot of websites that give an excellent odds and also gives you the whole information or record for each match of both teams and this kind of technique gives to the players where to bet correctly and to make a money quickly, but his type of strategy is suitable for risk takers you just need to trust those teams you choose.

muslol67

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This is nothing new. I've been betting for about 10 years and I've come across this and so many times. It can often be seen, especially during live betting.
I think it is operationally due to the management of numerous live bets. If these odds are based on a particular algorithm, the reason may also be due to errors in this algorithm.

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Odds providers still follow what they think the outcome of the bet will be. Although your examples are pretty good and are essentially the same, odds are these guys are just basing their odds on other odds providers so as not to level down the profit margin, and given the nature of these not-so-picked bets in the market, most odds providers and bookies will capitalize on it to make some profits on the side while the rest of their lines are probably filled with wins from the bettors.

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Quote from: o_e_l_e_o on November 15, 2019, 05:18:49 AM

It's the same with Asian Handicaps. Lots of people don't understand Asian Handicaps, so other bets with the same outcome will have worse odds so the bookmaker can make more profit. For example "+0.5 Asian Handicap", "Double Chance" and "1X" all mean the same thing, but the Asian Handicap will almost always have the best odds. Similarly, "+0.0 Asian Handicap" is the same as "Draw No Bet", but again, the Asian Handicap will likely have the better odds. The majority of betters will select the markets with the worse odds and give more profit to the bookmaker because they don't understand the other markets.

I've never used the +0.5 Asian Handicaps but I have used the -0.5. This is equivalent to the 1X2 betting or the win after 90 minutes and there is often a small difference in the odds just like the OP mentioned. If the team you placed a -0.5 AH wins you win the bet, if they draw or loss the match - you lose the bet. Nice find OP.

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Nothing surprising here because I have noticed this ever since I began sports betting a long time back. As Darkstar mentioned above, margin is the primary reason why these differences crop and I tried taking advantage of them(Arbing etc), but that failed.

Some of my bets got voided due to errors on the bookmakers part(Big differences) when I tried arbing in this manner.

DarkStar_

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The main reason is because different outcomes will often have different margins. The most popular ones (ML, Spread, O/U) usually have low margins as they are generally more accurate and have more volume, while more "exotic" bets have higher margins. The backend raw probability should be very similar if not identical between each option.

YuginKadoya

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I guess each website is basing their result within its researcher's research and sometimes the survey they get from different sports junkies and analysis will surely differ, well even though you are basing two or multiple websites doesn't mean they will have exact results as the others would be, In my opinion,

you would sure include your own research when getting your full results on the matter, I guess it is OK to have such a result for some variety purpose but if you would have any difficulties making a decision I think you can base on your own assumption regarding this matter.

Vaculin

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I think you should direct this question to the sportsbet ANN thread, fore sure you will get the right answer there.

I also noticed this in NBA or in our local basketball league but i just disregard it, what I did is I bet on the line with a higher odds and none of my bet that won has been cancelled or nullified.

o_e_l_e_o

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I think it's more about profits for the bookmaker.

Everyone understands what "0-0" means. Fewer people understand what "Under 0.5" means. So they offer worse odds on "0-0" knowing that newbie gamblers will bet on that, and they can make some more profits.

It's the same with Asian Handicaps. Lots of people don't understand Asian Handicaps, so other bets with the same outcome will have worse odds so the bookmaker can make more profit. For example "+0.5 Asian Handicap", "Double Chance" and "1X" all mean the same thing, but the Asian Handicap will almost always have the best odds. Similarly, "+0.0 Asian Handicap" is the same as "Draw No Bet", but again, the Asian Handicap will likely have the better odds. The majority of betters will select the markets with the worse odds and give more profit to the bookmaker because they don't understand the other markets.

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