Topic: Difficulty 252,000,000 in December 2013 - page 2. (Read 6166 times)
Hi guys, if u all interested in difficulty, why not make a profit by guessing future difficulty? I sincerely invite you guys to come and check out this website. http://btcfarseer.com
I did all my calculations with 100mil as the worst diff for October. Most miners still get a lot of cash out of them at that point. If I remember correctly even a 60gh device gives you more than 1k a year at 250 mil...
while 250,000,000 might be a stretch, 100,000,000 certainly is not come December. This is still an incredibly scary number 
Better change the title of this thread, it's misleading.
My idea was to create a spreadsheet that would be updated each month with the latest information. That information would come from the community and ideally would result in the prediction changing as new information was added or changed.
Thus, the spreadsheet would serve as a guide to help estimate the profitability of equipment.
The change I've made so far have resulted in the December estimate decreasing from 252 million to 226 million.
I'd rather have the title of the thread reflect a stick in the ground when I first made the post rather than practicing revisionist history. In the mean time the spreadsheet will reflect the latest thinking.
Then we'll see in December how close it was
Better change the title of this thread, it's misleading.
The reason I posted the spreadsheet is for help in vetting the numbers with the community. I appreciate your constructive feedback. My plan is to update the spreadsheet each month with new information as it appears. You will find the information you've provided on the "July" spreadsheet.
You are correct avalon batch 2 & 3 are 600 units representing 43Th.
For the avalon chips, I've updated the information based on the btc received, estimating the total chips at 760,000 and the effect as 215 Th.
As a conservative estimate, for now, I'll leave the BFL prediction, although I may reduce it later this month based on the assumption that BFL chip sales indicate an inability to deliver units.
The unknown factor represents what I anticipate to be asic projects that are privately in development that will not be announced to the public but will affect the network hash rate.
Also, for knc miner, the November / December figures represent delivered (not ordered) units. Again, just an early estimate for now.
Cheers!
Your spreadsheet is so full of errors it's unbelievable. Avalons Batch 2 and 3 will have approx. 43th each (72gh x 600 units, and that is with a +10gh bonus for a margin). not 156th or 130th. Where the heck did you get that numbers?
Also: The hell?!? Are you really thinking that BFL can pull 58th per month out of their hats? That would be a great magic trick! Besides, I think if they have some th's ready, they are mining for themselves right now, so they would be in the current number.
Then there is the Asic Chips: .... There are over 500.000 chips ordered, why do you add them in with only 85th? That should be a number between 150-200th. If all of them are okay and up and running in a ridiculously short amount of time.
Aaaaand: Unknown 500th?!? Where do they magically appear?
If you make a spreadsheet, at least get your numbers straight!!! (Knc miner numbers are also wrong. I alone have preordered over 1 th in mining equipment from them... If they deliver...)
Also: The hell?!? Are you really thinking that BFL can pull 58th per month out of their hats? That would be a great magic trick! Besides, I think if they have some th's ready, they are mining for themselves right now, so they would be in the current number.
Then there is the Asic Chips: .... There are over 500.000 chips ordered, why do you add them in with only 85th? That should be a number between 150-200th. If all of them are okay and up and running in a ridiculously short amount of time.
Aaaaand: Unknown 500th?!? Where do they magically appear?
If you make a spreadsheet, at least get your numbers straight!!! (Knc miner numbers are also wrong. I alone have preordered over 1 th in mining equipment from them... If they deliver...)
The reason I posted the spreadsheet is for help in vetting the numbers with the community. I appreciate your constructive feedback. My plan is to update the spreadsheet each month with new information as it appears. You will find the information you've provided on the "July" spreadsheet.
You are correct avalon batch 2 & 3 are 600 units representing 43Th.
For the avalon chips, I've updated the information based on the btc received, estimating the total chips at 760,000 and the effect as 215 Th.
As a conservative estimate, for now, I'll leave the BFL prediction, although I may reduce it later this month based on the assumption that BFL chip sales indicate an inability to deliver units.
The unknown factor represents what I anticipate to be asic projects that are privately in development that will not be announced to the public but will affect the network hash rate.
Also, for knc miner, the November / December figures represent delivered (not ordered) units. Again, just an early estimate for now.
Cheers!
Your spreadsheet is so full of errors it's unbelievable. Avalons Batch 2 and 3 will have approx. 43th each (72gh x 600 units, and that is with a +10gh bonus for a margin). not 156th or 130th. Where the heck did you get that numbers?
Also: The hell?!? Are you really thinking that BFL can pull 58th per month out of their hats? That would be a great magic trick! Besides, I think if they have some th's ready, they are mining for themselves right now, so they would be in the current number.
Then there is the Asic Chips: .... There are over 500.000 chips ordered, why do you add them in with only 85th? That should be a number between 150-200th. If all of them are okay and up and running in a ridiculously short amount of time.
Aaaaand: Unknown 500th?!? Where do they magically appear?
If you make a spreadsheet, at least get your numbers straight!!! (Knc miner numbers are also wrong. I alone have preordered over 1 th in mining equipment from them... If they deliver...)
Also: The hell?!? Are you really thinking that BFL can pull 58th per month out of their hats? That would be a great magic trick! Besides, I think if they have some th's ready, they are mining for themselves right now, so they would be in the current number.
Then there is the Asic Chips: .... There are over 500.000 chips ordered, why do you add them in with only 85th? That should be a number between 150-200th. If all of them are okay and up and running in a ridiculously short amount of time.
Aaaaand: Unknown 500th?!? Where do they magically appear?
If you make a spreadsheet, at least get your numbers straight!!! (Knc miner numbers are also wrong. I alone have preordered over 1 th in mining equipment from them... If they deliver...)
The reason I posted the spreadsheet is for help in vetting the numbers with the community. I appreciate your constructive feedback. My plan is to update the spreadsheet each month with new information as it appears. You will find the information you've provided on the "July" spreadsheet.
You are correct avalon batch 2 & 3 are 600 units representing 43Th.
For the avalon chips, I've updated the information based on the btc received, estimating the total chips at 760,000 and the effect as 215 Th.
As a conservative estimate, for now, I'll leave the BFL prediction, although I may reduce it later this month based on the assumption that BFL chip sales indicate an inability to deliver units.
The unknown factor represents what I anticipate to be asic projects that are privately in development that will not be announced to the public but will affect the network hash rate.
Also, for knc miner, the November / December figures represent delivered (not ordered) units. Again, just an early estimate for now.
Cheers!
yeah, his calculation is about 4x of the actual ghs.
I estimated at the end of the year, difficulties is about 50m-100m. Currently 12m.
I estimated at the end of the year, difficulties is about 50m-100m. Currently 12m.
Your spreadsheet is so full of errors it's unbelievable. Avalons Batch 2 and 3 will have approx. 43th each (72gh x 600 units, and that is with a +10gh bonus for a margin). not 156th or 130th. Where the heck did you get that numbers?
Also: The hell?!? Are you really thinking that BFL can pull 58th per month out of their hats? That would be a great magic trick! Besides, I think if they have some th's ready, they are mining for themselves right now, so they would be in the current number.
Then there is the Asic Chips: .... There are over 500.000 chips ordered, why do you add them in with only 85th? That should be a number between 150-200th. If all of them are okay and up and running in a ridiculously short amount of time.
Aaaaand: Unknown 500th?!? Where do they magically appear?
If you make a spreadsheet, at least get your numbers straight!!! (Knc miner numbers are also wrong. I alone have preordered over 1 th in mining equipment from them... If they deliver...)
Also: The hell?!? Are you really thinking that BFL can pull 58th per month out of their hats? That would be a great magic trick! Besides, I think if they have some th's ready, they are mining for themselves right now, so they would be in the current number.
Then there is the Asic Chips: .... There are over 500.000 chips ordered, why do you add them in with only 85th? That should be a number between 150-200th. If all of them are okay and up and running in a ridiculously short amount of time.
Aaaaand: Unknown 500th?!? Where do they magically appear?
If you make a spreadsheet, at least get your numbers straight!!! (Knc miner numbers are also wrong. I alone have preordered over 1 th in mining equipment from them... If they deliver...)
Your spreadsheet is so full of errors it's unbelievable. Avalons Batch 2 and 3 will have approx. 43th each (72gh x 600 units, and that is with a +10gh bonus for a margin). not 156th or 130th. Where the heck did you get that numbers?
Also: The hell?!? Are you really thinking that BFL can pull 58th per month out of their hats? That would be a great magic trick! Besides, I think if they have some th's ready, they are mining for themselves right now, so they would be in the current number.
Then there is the Asic Chips: .... There are over 500.000 chips ordered, why do you add them in with only 85th? That should be a number between 150-200th. If all of them are okay and up and running in a ridiculously short amount of time.
Aaaaand: Unknown 500th?!? Where do they magically appear?
If you make a spreadsheet, at least get your numbers straight!!! (Knc miner numbers are also wrong. I alone have preordered over 1 th in mining equipment from them... If they deliver...)
Also: The hell?!? Are you really thinking that BFL can pull 58th per month out of their hats? That would be a great magic trick! Besides, I think if they have some th's ready, they are mining for themselves right now, so they would be in the current number.
Then there is the Asic Chips: .... There are over 500.000 chips ordered, why do you add them in with only 85th? That should be a number between 150-200th. If all of them are okay and up and running in a ridiculously short amount of time.
Aaaaand: Unknown 500th?!? Where do they magically appear?
If you make a spreadsheet, at least get your numbers straight!!! (Knc miner numbers are also wrong. I alone have preordered over 1 th in mining equipment from them... If they deliver...)
Cool!
I've create a spreadsheet to roughly estimate the coming mining difficulty.
It estimates the anticipated hash rate of the network each month until December. I don't realistically expect anyone could have visibility past december. That being said, after December, the spreadsheet calculates a flat 10% growth per month.
The idea is to determine what the break even cost (B/E) for a mining unit might be.
For example, if you could obtain a 66 Gh/s unit starting in June, your 6 month profit would be estimated at 83 btc. Therefore, as long as you pay under 83 btc for the unit you will make a profit in 6 months.
However, if you were to acquire the same unit in October, then your B/E price over 6 months would be 25 btc.
I've chosen 6 months as the timeframe because I believe there is simply too much risk / variability past 6 months to accurately calculate a ROI.
The spreadsheet calculates the anticipated hash rate, shows an anticipated network difficulty, and then calculates the estimated btc / day rate based on the network hash rate.
I would welcome any discussion as to the formulas in the spreadsheet and the assumptions underlying when each company would bring their hash rate to the network.
The spreadsheet can be accessed here.
Cheers!
It estimates the anticipated hash rate of the network each month until December. I don't realistically expect anyone could have visibility past december. That being said, after December, the spreadsheet calculates a flat 10% growth per month.
The idea is to determine what the break even cost (B/E) for a mining unit might be.
For example, if you could obtain a 66 Gh/s unit starting in June, your 6 month profit would be estimated at 83 btc. Therefore, as long as you pay under 83 btc for the unit you will make a profit in 6 months.
However, if you were to acquire the same unit in October, then your B/E price over 6 months would be 25 btc.
I've chosen 6 months as the timeframe because I believe there is simply too much risk / variability past 6 months to accurately calculate a ROI.
The spreadsheet calculates the anticipated hash rate, shows an anticipated network difficulty, and then calculates the estimated btc / day rate based on the network hash rate.
I would welcome any discussion as to the formulas in the spreadsheet and the assumptions underlying when each company would bring their hash rate to the network.
The spreadsheet can be accessed here.
Cheers!
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