Topic: Difficulty +30% in about 3h (Read 2301 times)
Well those recently purchasing mining gear will be even less profitable, perhaps they will see a better choice is to buy BTC in bulk till the demand for mining gear settles.
All of the proposed increases in price would happen gradually as a result of new tradeoffs changing equilibrium. The guy that bought 20 ASICs isn't suddenly going to buy more BTC, but newcomers will be more likely to invest in coin rather than equipment. However, that trend is already known and happening.
Mining and BTC Price are correlated but don't have a causal relationship either way.
Mining and BTC Price are correlated but don't have a causal relationship either way.
So, if we go up every 10 days by 30% in difficulty, we might see this: (My numbers are a bit low, started with 145 million)
October 6 - 188.5 million
October 16- 245.05 "
October 26- 319 "
November 2 - 414 "
This sure makes things interesting.
I just don't think we will see it personally. I think things will slow down... or I hope so.
IAS
October 6 - 188.5 million
October 16- 245.05 "
October 26- 319 "
November 2 - 414 "
This sure makes things interesting.
I just don't think we will see it personally. I think things will slow down... or I hope so.
IAS
5+ Phash/s at the end of year. (10x more then I expected at the begin of year :-) )
Slow down? LOL, things will only accelerate from here on out. I expect to see 40-60% difficulty jumps within the next two months, the amount of standing pre-orders out there are truly scary. Up till now the 30% jumps are mainly caused by BFL and Bitfury only. Once KNC, Hashfast and others start shipping things are going to go to a whole new level. Only once it overshoots and the most efficient miners out there are only profitable at free or low electricity costs we will see miners capitulate and things slowing down again. Maybe around 4-5 billion difficulty, perhaps even higher.
So, if we go up every 10 days by 30% in difficulty, we might see this: (My numbers are a bit low, started with 145 million)
October 6 - 188.5 million
October 16- 245.05 "
October 26- 319 "
November 2 - 414 "
This sure makes things interesting.
I just don't think we will see it personally. I think things will slow down... or I hope so.
IAS
October 6 - 188.5 million
October 16- 245.05 "
October 26- 319 "
November 2 - 414 "
This sure makes things interesting.
I just don't think we will see it personally. I think things will slow down... or I hope so.
IAS
Difficulty and price have a complex relationship. While generally difficulty follows price, and not the other way round, difficulty can impact price in some limited situations. For example when it means a mass influx of new users. On this occasion though the rising difficulty is simply due to delivery of a few more ASICS, which is expected and already factored into the price. So the general rule applies and this should have no price impact.
What about a mass influx of people running away from the ASIC market back into bitcoin due to the increasing difficulty? The fear and panic among the people with ASIC pre-orders is only just beginning...
Difficulty and price have a complex relationship. While generally difficulty follows price, and not the other way round, difficulty can impact price in some limited situations. For example when it means a mass influx of new users. On this occasion though the rising difficulty is simply due to delivery of a few more ASICS, which is expected and already factored into the price. So the general rule applies and this should have no price impact.
So did the price go up 30% too?
Of course it did ....NOT!
So did the price go up 30% too?
difficulty and price have 0 correlation.
Correlation they definitely have, causation on the other hand...
And your right, my logic is flawed because the same amount of bitcoins are produced. So in the case won't more people be selling bitcoins to start recouperating some of the money from their investment that's been tied up for months/years?
So I think maybe increase in selling then.
So I think maybe increase in selling then.
This is what happened during the exponential rise in difficulty caused by GPUs. Everyone bought free money making machines (gpus) and needed to pay them off. So they sold BTC down to $2.
Perhaps some owners of new money making machines (asics) will be more willing to speculate on future price increases?
Well, sort of. The difficulty overshoot just so happened to coincide with numerous other events that, in combination, caused the crash. I expect something similar may happen between now and next Spring, but I think the magnitude of capitulation will be less than the 2011 incident. Notwithstanding other events, of course.
And your right, my logic is flawed because the same amount of bitcoins are produced. So in the case won't more people be selling bitcoins to start recouperating some of the money from their investment that's been tied up for months/years?
So I think maybe increase in selling then.
So I think maybe increase in selling then.
This is what happened during the exponential rise in difficulty caused by GPUs. Everyone bought free money making machines (gpus) and needed to pay them off. So they sold BTC down to $2.
Perhaps some owners of new money making machines (asics) will be more willing to speculate on future price increases?
And your right, my logic is flawed because the same amount of bitcoins are produced. So in the case won't more people be selling bitcoins to start recouperating some of the money from their investment that's been tied up for months/years?
So I think maybe increase in selling then.
So I think maybe increase in selling then.
Since difficulty is increasing, there will be less mined bitcoins and thus less bitcoins sold by miners to pay for electricity and other costs, thus the BTC/USD should not fall, but rise right? (Less sell pressure).
If difficulty is increasing, it is because ASICs are being delivered, hashing power is constantly increasing, and blocks are found before 10 min on average. It will keep this way, meaning that more buying will be mined, quicker, and price will decrease
Since difficulty is increasing, there will be less mined bitcoins and thus less bitcoins sold by miners to pay for electricity and other costs, thus the BTC/USD should not fall, but rise right? (Less sell pressure).
Hmmm you seem far too logical for the bitcoin world
This is what I would think also but it rarely has an impact on the price...so far. When bitcoin matures a bit more surely this will be the case.
The same number of BTC are mined regardless of difficulty.
Your logic is faulty.
Not exactly. The difficulty tries to keep the number of blocks mined to about 6 blocks an hour (one block every 10 minutes). So per hour amount of coins mined isn't constant.
But since it readjusts around every two weeks that's kinda irrelevant.
Since difficulty is increasing, there will be less mined bitcoins and thus less bitcoins sold by miners to pay for electricity and other costs, thus the BTC/USD should not fall, but rise right? (Less sell pressure).
Hmmm you seem far too logical for the bitcoin world
This is what I would think also but it rarely has an impact on the price...so far. When bitcoin matures a bit more surely this will be the case.
The same number of BTC are mined regardless of difficulty.
Your logic is faulty.
Since difficulty is increasing, there will be less mined bitcoins and thus less bitcoins sold by miners to pay for electricity and other costs, thus the BTC/USD should not fall, but rise right? (Less sell pressure).
Hmmm you seem far too logical for the bitcoin world
This is what I would think also but it rarely has an impact on the price...so far. When bitcoin matures a bit more surely this will be the case.
It does affect the price, as money will be flowing back from mining into bitcoin and other more attractive bitcoin related investments. There was a big gold rush for mining equipment and now that is coming to an end. There is a lag before that shows up in the difficulty though, I don't expect the exponential rise to level off before February 2014.
difficulty and price have 0 correlation.Wrong. But believe what you want.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/fiat-conversion-price-to-difficulty-277815
"Higher price drives difficulty*. At one time someone even provide some analysis showing the correlation of price driving difficulty."
I don't think it will affect the price. We all already know it's scarce and getting scarcer. No surprise there. Increased utility and adopting will raise price, along with a sense that it's only going to get more useful.
It does affect the price, as money will be flowing back from mining into bitcoin and other more attractive bitcoin related investments. There was a big gold rush for mining equipment and now that is coming to an end. There is a lag before that shows up in the difficulty though, I don't expect the exponential rise to level off before February 2014.
difficulty and price have 0 correlation.Wrong. But believe what you want.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/fiat-conversion-price-to-difficulty-277815
Jump to: