Topic: Difficulty after BFL - page 2. (Read 5218 times)
after bfl runs with the money?
Was 400 units/day and 5 day workweeks mentioned by anyone from BFL?
What did they mean by a "unit"? Jalapeno, Little Single, Single or MiniRig are all considered a "unit"?
Yes that number has been mentioned before. Here is one example: https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/1736-tour-bfl-offices.html#post23453
Your second question.. that's another key thing. It's what we were guessing here (full post on my blog like below):
http://mineshaft.me/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/hashrateperbox.jpg
Multiply each guess by the number of units and you have total hash rate.
Anyway, lets assume that BFL ships all it's units, what is a likely difficulty when that happens?
I don't know what will be the difficulty. All I know GPU bitcoin mining will be history in this scenario if any miracle not happens to GPU technology and/or energy innovation (solar powered GPUs, etc.)
I don't get why they can't "easily" disclose this. This information is critical to knowing what the mining capability of these boxes are.
Taking them at their word for a minute (which is probably highly optimistic on their part). Maybe we can reverse engineer how many unit orders they really have. If they think they're going to produce 400 units a day - that's 2000 a week. So if they are expecting to be able to ship today's orders by (the end of) July. Starting 2 weeks from now. That would be about 8 week to do all the orders. So 16,000 orders.
That's a lot but it's also not near as many as I had feared when my order number was close to 40000.
I'm not saying they're going to make this schedule. That's not my point. But if they were using math to come up with those dates (which people like that do) maybe we can come close to guessing what the numbers in the math were.
Taking them at their word for a minute (which is probably highly optimistic on their part). Maybe we can reverse engineer how many unit orders they really have. If they think they're going to produce 400 units a day - that's 2000 a week. So if they are expecting to be able to ship today's orders by (the end of) July. Starting 2 weeks from now. That would be about 8 week to do all the orders. So 16,000 orders.
That's a lot but it's also not near as many as I had feared when my order number was close to 40000.
I'm not saying they're going to make this schedule. That's not my point. But if they were using math to come up with those dates (which people like that do) maybe we can come close to guessing what the numbers in the math were.
Was 400 units/day and 5 day workweeks mentioned by anyone from BFL?
What did they mean by a "unit"? Jalapeno, Little Single, Single or MiniRig are all considered a "unit"?
I re-read that faq page. It wasn't on THEIR faq but the forum faq and that's why it was a guess. The real faq is where I had seen the thing about July:
And this one which I don't completely understand:
I don't get why they can't "easily" disclose this. This information is critical to knowing what the mining capability of these boxes are.
Taking them at their word for a minute (which is probably highly optimistic on their part). Maybe we can reverse engineer how many unit orders they really have. If they think they're going to produce 400 units a day - that's 2000 a week. So if they are expecting to be able to ship today's orders by (the end of) July. Starting 2 weeks from now. That would be about 8 week to do all the orders. So 16,000 orders.
That's a lot but it's also not near as many as I had feared when my order number was close to 40000.
I'm not saying they're going to make this schedule. That's not my point. But if they were using math to come up with those dates (which people like that do) maybe we can come close to guessing what the numbers in the math were.
Quote
Q
When will you start shipping machines?
A
We plan on shipping the ASIC versions of our products by the end of April. We have orders that date back to June of 2012. Those are the orders that will be delivered first. Orders placed now will not ship until the month of July.
When will you start shipping machines?
A
We plan on shipping the ASIC versions of our products by the end of April. We have orders that date back to June of 2012. Those are the orders that will be delivered first. Orders placed now will not ship until the month of July.
And this one which I don't completely understand:
Quote
Q
Where am I in line and when will my order ship?
A
We cannot disclose the number of orders we currently have. Shipping of new units is still anticipated to begin by the end of April, 2013. We are unable to predict accurate wait times until shipping begins.
Q
Where am I in line and when will my order ship?
A
We currently do not have the ability to easily disclose the number of orders we currently have. Shipping of new units is expected to begin soon. It is unknown at this time when we will complete the shipping of our pre-orders. Even though we should start shipping soon, orders placed now will be shipped at a later time. Our orders date back to June, 2012. All of those orders and those placed since then will be shipped before new orders.
Where am I in line and when will my order ship?
A
We cannot disclose the number of orders we currently have. Shipping of new units is still anticipated to begin by the end of April, 2013. We are unable to predict accurate wait times until shipping begins.
Q
Where am I in line and when will my order ship?
A
We currently do not have the ability to easily disclose the number of orders we currently have. Shipping of new units is expected to begin soon. It is unknown at this time when we will complete the shipping of our pre-orders. Even though we should start shipping soon, orders placed now will be shipped at a later time. Our orders date back to June, 2012. All of those orders and those placed since then will be shipped before new orders.
I don't get why they can't "easily" disclose this. This information is critical to knowing what the mining capability of these boxes are.
Taking them at their word for a minute (which is probably highly optimistic on their part). Maybe we can reverse engineer how many unit orders they really have. If they think they're going to produce 400 units a day - that's 2000 a week. So if they are expecting to be able to ship today's orders by (the end of) July. Starting 2 weeks from now. That would be about 8 week to do all the orders. So 16,000 orders.
That's a lot but it's also not near as many as I had feared when my order number was close to 40000.
I'm not saying they're going to make this schedule. That's not my point. But if they were using math to come up with those dates (which people like that do) maybe we can come close to guessing what the numbers in the math were.
I thought I had heard that BLF-Josh said that anyone who had ordered in the last two weeks would get theirs by July. But now I can't find that quote again.
Sounds like something he'd say, but I think that assertion is highly suspect given how disorganized they appear to be here in mid April. Josh has also suggested that BFL could assemble and ship hundreds of units per day, but that too seems highly unlikely given their track record and small limited facilities.
I've also noted a conspicuously absent lack of information coming from BFL about their future batches of chips, which is troubling given how quickly they'd deplete the supply they have when shipping commences.
We did it as a shared google doc. We'll either figure a way to share that with everyone or I'll make an excel doc with it. But then you can put in any amount for added non-BFL. And you can put in your order number and see a graph for you.
I was chatting with some other ppl today who said that BFL's first batch was 21TH. But honestly that would only cover about 700 x 25GH units. By that measure, they'll be sending one of these "batches" every day or two.
I thought I had heard that BLF-Josh said that anyone who had ordered in the last two weeks would get theirs by July. But now I can't find that quote again.
I did find this on their website: https://forums.butterflylabs.com/showwiki.php?title=FAQ:Real+Shipping+Estimate.
This falls more in line with the guessing that we did.I'm going to write them and ask some direct questions. Note that this was a while ago. They're up to order number 40000 now and I doubt that the 1000 orders a day they're getting now includes ANY cancellations.
I was chatting with some other ppl today who said that BFL's first batch was 21TH. But honestly that would only cover about 700 x 25GH units. By that measure, they'll be sending one of these "batches" every day or two.
I thought I had heard that BLF-Josh said that anyone who had ordered in the last two weeks would get theirs by July. But now I can't find that quote again.
I did find this on their website: https://forums.butterflylabs.com/showwiki.php?title=FAQ:Real+Shipping+Estimate.
Quote
PPS, It maybe best to go with 50% cancel & 2 units/order. That will make this shipping "guess" closer to both 30 & 70% because half way in-between them. This would make sense since the actual cancelled orders are unknown by us and could be somewhere between 30-70%.
33,000 * .5 * 2 = 33,000 units / 2,000 = 16.5 weeks = 4.125 months + delivery time.
33,000 * .5 * 2 = 33,000 units / 2,000 = 16.5 weeks = 4.125 months + delivery time.
This falls more in line with the guessing that we did.
Yes but a guess. The spreadsheet takes into account the current has rate, which includes some asics already, and was guessing about 20 Ths more by the time BFL ships. I'll make excel files available soon. I have a better calculation that I plan to post soon.
IC, I missed that tidbit. 20Th may be rather low given that Avalon's batch 2 40Th/s is scheduled to begin shipping sometime between tomorrow and May 5 and ASICMiner is expected to add 5 - 13Th to the network around the same time. I believe what BFL actually has on hand is one wafer of chips only, though perhaps they've made some progress in that area as I do not follow their unofficial releases.
Yes but a guess. The spreadsheet takes into account the current has rate, which includes some asics already, and was guessing about 20 Ths more by the time BFL ships. I'll make excel files available soon. I have a better calculation that I plan to post soon.
I posted my math on this on my blog. The post is a little long but it shows my method for figuring it out. Of course (since I ordered a BFL 50ghs) the whole thing assumes that the butterfly lab units will eventually ship. I think they will. If they don't the hash rate won't change much. But if they do ship it changes a LOT.
http://mineshaft.me/2013/04/initial-roi-estimates/
http://mineshaft.me/2013/04/initial-roi-estimates/
Interesting read. One thing that bothered me while reading through the data presented that perhaps you could clarify. Was network hashrate added by vendors that do currently have a working product(Avalon & ASICMiner) taken into account?
I posted my math on this on my blog. The post is a little long but it shows my method for figuring it out. Of course (since I ordered a BFL 50ghs) the whole thing assumes that the butterfly lab units will eventually ship. I think they will. If they don't the hash rate won't change much. But if they do ship it changes a LOT.
http://mineshaft.me/2013/04/initial-roi-estimates/
http://mineshaft.me/2013/04/initial-roi-estimates/
It would be approximately an increase of 0 hashes/second because BFL will never ship.
After BFL Batch 1 & 2, and Avalon Batch 3, and ASICMiner we'll probably be in the mid 40million range - maybe by June? Then the oddities like Helveticoin might come in or some other unknowns. Either way GPUminers will be in Altcoins. From then on it will be an all out ASIC arms race. 60-100 million by July? You buy more ASIC if you think BTC will go to 1000USD never knowing what the cap on hashrate will be. Electric rates will start to matter by this time next year and the Gen2 or even Gen3 units will start coming out.
Or BTC has another issue and something like LTC or PPC takes over - unlikely but you never know.
Or BTC has another issue and something like LTC or PPC takes over - unlikely but you never know.
My numbers say... 150 mil... but if a new player jumps into the ring it could be double that.
The difficulty is prepare to shell out serious cash to be a Bitcoin miner soon to make anything doing it, and new fierce competition.
At the moment, it likes the same as before BFL.
Uh, it still is before BFL.
At the moment, it likes the same as before BFL.
Tough to say. You can't just multiply the average GH/s of an order by the number of orders and add it to current difficulty. Many people who are spending 100 watts to mine at 500 mh/s will probably drop out, which will reduce the difficulty by some amount as well.
A bit over 300 million.
Since no one has any idea how many units are ordered through BFL, no one can say what the difficulty will be when they ship. How many ounces of unicorn blood does it take to fill a faeries bladder? I dunno.
Difficulty scales linearly with Hashrate, if you wish to figure that out, or guess at it. 1200 x 87GH units from Avalon (give or take) will at ~105TH to the existing ~67TH. That will put us roughly into 24Mil difficulty range.
If and when BFL ships it is anybodies guess, but as you can see fairly simply, 150TH will add about 20Mil difficulty, so anywhere between 25mil and 100mil by August seems plausible.
Difficulty scales linearly with Hashrate, if you wish to figure that out, or guess at it. 1200 x 87GH units from Avalon (give or take) will at ~105TH to the existing ~67TH. That will put us roughly into 24Mil difficulty range.
If and when BFL ships it is anybodies guess, but as you can see fairly simply, 150TH will add about 20Mil difficulty, so anywhere between 25mil and 100mil by August seems plausible.
Sadly Bitcoin doesn't even need an issue of it's own to fail. It's being GOXXED to death. 
IMO can't really blame Gox, blame all the miners who kept all their bitcoins at Gox and solely used Gox.But that is a discussion for another thread.
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