Topic: Difficulty contest. prize 2 ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are closed!! - page 3. (Read 3398 times)
July 07, 2017, 04:07:29 PM
6.2 = vh
July 07, 2017, 03:14:05 PM
1.1 = vapourminer
July 07, 2017, 02:36:14 PM
Picks are open!
PICKS END AT 516
-1.1 = philipma1957
I want to mention that 2.0 ltc is max I will bring prize to . So if we roll over again prize is capped at 2 ltc
Experimental Image Contribution:
Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.
Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.
PICKS END AT 516
-1.1 = philipma1957
I want to mention that 2.0 ltc is max I will bring prize to . So if we roll over again prize is capped at 2 ltc
July 07, 2017, 01:11:06 AM
What's interesting to consider is the amount of hash that needs to be added to make a 10% from the last adjustment. Using the figure from bitcoinwisdom of 5,072,782 TH at the last change, the network would need to add 507,278 TH for a 10% increase. That's a lot of S9 hardware, or BitFury containers to deploy. You would think the logistics alone would be pretty daunting. My guess is that this is actually stuff that's been purchased as the price was rising and has taken a while to actually made active. Maybe Bitmain has been "sand bagging" for a while.......
Bitmain is always sandbagging as their cost for s-9's is maybe 500 or 400 usd. they could just build and mine until they kill btc. So they don't do that they control the flow of sales and self mining.
Still the spike was 20% which is 77,000 s-9's even if it is ½ that at 10 % it is around 40,000 s-9's
July 06, 2017, 08:28:24 PM
Another interesting bit of trivia was that the total network hash at the beginning of 2016 was under 1 exohash. I find it incredible someone just flipped a switch to control more than that from one spot.
July 06, 2017, 07:49:35 PM
What's interesting to consider is the amount of hash that needs to be added to make a 10% from the last adjustment. Using the figure from bitcoinwisdom of 5,072,782 TH at the last change, the network would need to add 507,278 TH for a 10% increase. That's a lot of S9 hardware, or BitFury containers to deploy. You would think the logistics alone would be pretty daunting. My guess is that this is actually stuff that's been purchased as the price was rising and has taken a while to actually made active. Maybe Bitmain has been "sand bagging" for a while.......
July 06, 2017, 04:26:22 PM
The spike has gone down a bit. Maybe we'll see a price increase soon. higher diff, means higher price, or is it the opposite 
Price has nothing to do with diff.
PROFITABILITY however is largely a function of price and diff (and electric cost).
I could picture a 20% jump happen, if a combination of
(1) Bitmain ships a new batch of S9/T9/R4 units
(2) Bitfury ships a couple of their big mining containers, or a large batch of chips that quickly get turned into miners by major farms
(3) some of the smaller folks ship new batches of miners
all happened at the same time.
Upon reflection though, wasn't Bitmain supposed to ship out a batch of S9s on or before the 10'th?
if prices go up diff chases the jumps.
It is a language barrier I need to write a few hundred words and most readers just scan.
So I sound bite it.
But if price 2x to 4500-5200 diff will rise faster then if price stays flat = fairly true in simple words.
July 06, 2017, 04:07:00 PM
The spike has gone down a bit. Maybe we'll see a price increase soon. higher diff, means higher price, or is it the opposite
Price has nothing to do with diff.
PROFITABILITY however is largely a function of price and diff (and electric cost).
I could picture a 20% jump happen, if a combination of
(1) Bitmain ships a new batch of S9/T9/R4 units
(2) Bitfury ships a couple of their big mining containers, or a large batch of chips that quickly get turned into miners by major farms
(3) some of the smaller folks ship new batches of miners
all happened at the same time.
Upon reflection though, wasn't Bitmain supposed to ship out a batch of S9s on or before the 10'th?
July 05, 2017, 05:52:06 PM
the numbers on this new "guess the difficulty" thread are soooo different from the old contest. lotsa double digit increases at the old thread vs the low single digit ones here.
times be changing? the asic makers just dribbling miners out this time and that limits the difficulty growth?
times be changing? the asic makers just dribbling miners out this time and that limits the difficulty growth?
it is hard to jump diff a lot there is a shit ton of gear mining and as far as anyone know there is no .05 watt a gh miner around.
when the s-9 came out it could do .10 watts it has been tweaked and the new one do .12 watts and do not break that easy.
the only way to rip 2 or 3 20% jumps would be a new miner with .05 watts that works.
or price jumps to 4500 . Don't we wish that.
Bitcoin Difficulty: 708,659,466,230
Estimated Next Difficulty: 782,936,712,108 (+10.48%)
Adjust time: After 1378 Blocks, About 8.5 days >>>> 1116 is starting point
Hashrate(?): 5,627,512,620 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 8.9 minutes
3 blocks: 26.7 minutes
6 blocks: 53.4 minutes
Updated: 17:50 (1.6 minutes ago)
July 05, 2017, 01:05:43 PM
the numbers on this new "guess the difficulty" thread are soooo different from the old contest. lotsa double digit increases at the old thread vs the low single digit ones here.
times be changing? the asic makers just dribbling miners out this time and that limits the difficulty growth?
times be changing? the asic makers just dribbling miners out this time and that limits the difficulty growth?
July 05, 2017, 10:35:34 AM
The spike has gone down a bit. Maybe we'll see a price increase soon. higher diff, means higher price, or is it the opposite
July 03, 2017, 10:35:33 PM
Could also be Bitfury finally starting to ship some serious chips/miners, or a combination of several of the smaller fry shipping some gear.
I don't see any reason for a farm to swap out S7 units unless they're at the limit of power availability (the things are more profitable NOW than they were when the S9 was introduced, I think - close if not).
I don't see any reason for a farm to swap out S7 units unless they're at the limit of power availability (the things are more profitable NOW than they were when the S9 was introduced, I think - close if not).
July 03, 2017, 07:43:53 PM
This new spike is scary. It's almost vertical.
Bitmain & friends turned a few miners off so difficulty increase was marginal last difficulty period and turned on the miners previously off and then some. If you disregard that then the growth seems pretty normal, i have a feeling it's going to be in the teens in terms of growth this time.chart clearly shows 1000ph popped on in a day or two
that is 77 s-9's for each ph
or 77,000 s-9's
July 03, 2017, 07:02:13 PM
This new spike is scary. It's almost vertical.
Bitmain & friends turned a few miners off so difficulty increase was marginal last difficulty period and turned on the miners previously off and then some. If you disregard that then the growth seems pretty normal, i have a feeling it's going to be in the teens in terms of growth this time.chart clearly shows 1000ph popped on in a day or two
that is 77 s-9's for each ph
or 77,000 s-9's
July 03, 2017, 05:16:20 PM
This new spike is scary. It's almost vertical.
Bitmain & friends turned a few miners off so difficulty increase was marginal last difficulty period and turned on the miners previously off and then some. If you disregard that then the growth seems pretty normal, i have a feeling it's going to be in the teens in terms of growth this time. 
July 03, 2017, 03:41:12 PM
This new spike is scary. It's almost vertical.
July 03, 2017, 07:35:38 AM
Rules
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.14964950
I am checking this list of rules from older thread
1)you must have been on this site since April 1st 2017 you must have at least 30 posts. --
2)I will check you out if you are new and decide if you can play.
3)you get one play per adjustment. which must be yours alone, in proper format and can not be changed.
4)Do not pick someone else's number If you do I will assign a number and that will not be changed
5) picks start at:
Bitcoin Difficulty:
Estimated Next Difficulty:
Adjust time: Block 1116
Hashrate(?):
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block:
3 blocks:
6 blocks:
Updated:
6) picks end at
Bitcoin Difficulty:
Estimated Next Difficulty:
Adjust time: 516
Hashrate(?):
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block:
3 blocks:
6 blocks:
Updated:
7) since this is a free contest I make all decisions if there are any issues or problems.
8 ) note the change picks start later and end late in the hope of helping a person to pick a winner.
9) format is below and this is the contest picks from 2016 in code
as low as you want
-1.0
-0.9
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
+0.1
+0.2
+0.3
+0.4
+0.5
+0.6
+0.7
+0.8
+0.9
+1.0
to as high as you want
10) Finally If I missed anything I will be the sole decider as to what is fair.
And we are looking at +5%
Bitcoin Difficulty: 708,659,466,230
Estimated Next Difficulty: 744,264,819,589 (+5.02%)
Adjust time: After 1751 Blocks, About 11.3 days > picks start at 1116
Hashrate(?): 6,227,194,523 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.3 minutes
3 blocks: 27.9 minutes
6 blocks: 55.9 minutes
Updated:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.14964950
I am checking this list of rules from older thread
1)you must have been on this site since April 1st 2017 you must have at least 30 posts. --
2)I will check you out if you are new and decide if you can play.
3)you get one play per adjustment. which must be yours alone, in proper format and can not be changed.
4)Do not pick someone else's number If you do I will assign a number and that will not be changed
5) picks start at:
Bitcoin Difficulty:
Estimated Next Difficulty:
Adjust time: Block 1116
Hashrate(?):
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block:
3 blocks:
6 blocks:
Updated:
6) picks end at
Bitcoin Difficulty:
Estimated Next Difficulty:
Adjust time: 516
Hashrate(?):
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block:
3 blocks:
6 blocks:
Updated:
7) since this is a free contest I make all decisions if there are any issues or problems.
8 ) note the change picks start later and end late in the hope of helping a person to pick a winner.
9) format is below and this is the contest picks from 2016 in code
as low as you want
-1.0
-0.9
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
+0.1
+0.2
+0.3
+0.4
+0.5
+0.6
+0.7
+0.8
+0.9
+1.0
to as high as you want
Code:
-1.2 = philipma1957 >>>> I always pick this number
-0.5 = Erumara
0.0 = adaseb
+0.7 = adib
+0.8 = ingiltere
+0.9 = usenet
+1.0 = NeuroticFish
+1.4 = ahmedjamal1998
+1.5 = lolxxxx
+1.7 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+2.3 = fr4nkthetank
+2.7 = blindminer
+3.0 = topiOleg
+3.1 = tlhIlwI
+3.2 = Psi
+3.3 = HagssFIN
+3.4 = HerbPean
+3.5 = Veves1
+3.6 = Cuidler
+3.7 ! Thank you! @ Roadstress Pleaz try to do it right > +3.7 = Roadstress
+3.9 = flikflak
+4.0 = pusttiu
+4.1 = Amph
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.5 = redhack
+4.6 = talks_cheep
+4.7 = Ankara
+4.8 = indiemax
+4.9 = ATguy
+5.0 = alh
+5.1 = FruitsBasket
+5.2 = VRobb
+5.3 = Dexter770221
+5.4 = gnaoui
+5.5 = vapourminer
+5.6 = mavericklm I changed your pick to +5.6 as vapourminer had +5.5
+5.7 = wlefever
+5.8 = Notlist3d
+5.9 = Chris!
+6.5 = wpt1wpt1
+6.6 = edonkey
+6.7 = zebedee
+6.8 = AM4Bitcoin
+6.9% = Mikestang
+7.6 = RichBC
Code:
Difficulty History
Date _______Difficulty_____________ Change___ Hash Rate
Jun 17 2017 711,697,198,174 .......... 4.85%..... 5,094,526,985 GH/s
May 24 2016 199,312,067,531 2.60% 1,426,731,353 GH/s
May 11 2016 194,254,820,283 8.73% 1,390,530,167 GH/s
Apr 28 2016 178,659,257,773 -0.01% 1,278,892,782 GH/s
Apr 14 2016 178,678,307,672 7.09% 1,279,029,147 GH/s
Apr 01 2016 166,851,513,283 0.82% 1,194,369,655 GH/s
Mar 18 2016 165,496,835,118 4.46% 1,184,672,491 GH/s
Mar 04 2016 158,427,203,767 -3.10% 1,134,066,098 GH/s
Feb 19 2016 163,491,654,909 13.44% 1,170,318,852 GH/s
Feb 07 2016 144,116,447,847 20.06% 1,031,625,717 GH/s
Jan 26 2016 120,033,340,651 5.89% 859,232,121 GH/s
Jan 13 2016 113,354,299,801 9.12% 811,421,684 GH/s
Dec 31 2015 103,880,340,815 11.16% 743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015 93,448,670,796 18.14% 668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015 79,102,380,900 8.77% 566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015 72,722,780,643 10.44% 520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015 65,848,255,180 5.77% 471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015 62,253,982,450 2.25% 445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015 60,883,825,480 0.12% 435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015 60,813,224,039 2.49% 435,318,014 GH/s
Sep 17 2015 59,335,351,234 4.17% 424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015 56,957,648,455 4.98% 407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015 54,256,630,328 2.95% 388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015 52,699,842,409 0.81% 377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015 52,278,304,846 2.35% 374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015 51,076,366,303 3.39% 365,618,871 GH/s
Jun 28 2015 49,402,014,931 -0.58% 353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015 49,692,386,355 4.42% 355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015 47,589,591,154 -2.50% 340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015 48,807,487,245 2.44% 349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015 47,643,398,018 0.07% 341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015 47,610,564,513 -3.71% 340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015 49,446,390,688 5.84% 353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015 46,717,549,645 -1.50% 334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015 47,427,554,951 1.59% 339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015 46,684,376,317 5.01% 334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015 44,455,415,962 7.71% 318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015 41,272,873,895 -6.14% 295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015 43,971,662,056 8.20% 314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014 40,640,955,017 3.00% 290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014 39,457,671,307 -1.37% 282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014 40,007,470,271 -0.73% 286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014 40,300,030,328 1.76% 288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014 39,603,666,252 10.05% 283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014 35,985,640,265 2.81% 257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014 35,002,482,026 0.98% 250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014 34,661,425,924 16.20% 248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014 29,829,733,124 8.75% 213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014 27,428,630,902 15.03% 196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014 23,844,670,039 20.86% 170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014 19,729,645,941 5.30% 141,230,307 GH/s
© 2013-2014 BitcoinWisdom.com
10) Finally If I missed anything I will be the sole decider as to what is fair.
Experimental Image Contribution:
Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.
Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.
And we are looking at +5%
Bitcoin Difficulty: 708,659,466,230
Estimated Next Difficulty: 744,264,819,589 (+5.02%)
Adjust time: After 1751 Blocks, About 11.3 days > picks start at 1116
Hashrate(?): 6,227,194,523 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.3 minutes
3 blocks: 27.9 minutes
6 blocks: 55.9 minutes
Updated:
July 03, 2017, 07:33:27 AM
Okay no one hit this. So prize is raise to 2.0 ltc and a sidehack 1 chip usb compac.
Locking for the time being will fill in the rules in about 12 hours
Link to last threads
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/a-diff-contest-picks-are-closed-15-ltc-prize-with-a-sidehack-compac-1972166
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.19189742
when it reaches 1116 picks will start
when it reaches 516-- picks will end---- Please note I erred and closed it early . Next round we will do 516
when it reaches 0 winner will be found or not
##################################
@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
**********************************************
Difficulty History
Date.......................Difficulty............Change......Hash Rate
Jul 02 2017 708,659,466,230 -0.43% 5,072,782,052 GH/s
Jun 17 2017 711,697,198,174....... 4.85% .... 5,094,526,985 GH/s
May 23 2017 595,921,917,085 6.42% 4,265,775,241 GH/s
May 10 2017 559,970,892,891 7.28% 4,008,427,786 GH/s
Apr 27 2017 521,974,519,554 0.22% 3,736,439,151 GH/s
Apr 13 2017 520,808,749,422 4.24% 3,728,094,244 GH/s
Mar 30 2017 499,635,929,817 5.03% 3,576,533,297 GH/s
Mar 17 2017 475,705,205,062 3.24% 3,405,230,497 GH/s
Mar 03 2017 460,769,358,091 4.54% 3,298,315,540 GH/s
Feb 18 2017 440,779,902,287 4.41% 3,155,225,442 GH/s
Feb 04 2017 422,170,566,884 7.43% 3,022,014,630 GH/s
Jan 22 2017 392,963,262,344 16.64% 2,812,940,600 GH/s
Jan 10 2017 336,899,932,796 6.05% 2,411,623,656 GH/s
Bitcoin Difficulty: 595,921,917,085
Estimated Next Difficulty: 643,997,221,046 (+8.07%)
Adjust time: After 1664 Blocks, About 10.9 days this is the spot to look for the start time next jump at 1116 not this jump
Hashrate(?): 4,637,688,482 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.4 minutes
3 blocks: 28.4 minutes
6 blocks: 56.7 minutes
Updated:
So 1 compac usb stick from sidehack
and 1 LTC coin from me. upped to 1.5 LTC 2 LTC
If you are overseas I will spring for the shipping of the compac stick. Note the compact stick is the 1 chip version but as always it is fun to play with it.
Locking for the time being will fill in the rules in about 12 hours
Link to last threads
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/a-diff-contest-picks-are-closed-15-ltc-prize-with-a-sidehack-compac-1972166
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.19189742
Experimental Image Contribution:
Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.
Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.
when it reaches 1116 picks will start
when it reaches 516-- picks will end---- Please note I erred and closed it early . Next round we will do 516
when it reaches 0 winner will be found or not
##################################
@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
**********************************************
Difficulty History
Date.......................Difficulty............Change......Hash Rate
Jul 02 2017 708,659,466,230 -0.43% 5,072,782,052 GH/s
Jun 17 2017 711,697,198,174....... 4.85% .... 5,094,526,985 GH/s
May 23 2017 595,921,917,085 6.42% 4,265,775,241 GH/s
May 10 2017 559,970,892,891 7.28% 4,008,427,786 GH/s
Apr 27 2017 521,974,519,554 0.22% 3,736,439,151 GH/s
Apr 13 2017 520,808,749,422 4.24% 3,728,094,244 GH/s
Mar 30 2017 499,635,929,817 5.03% 3,576,533,297 GH/s
Mar 17 2017 475,705,205,062 3.24% 3,405,230,497 GH/s
Mar 03 2017 460,769,358,091 4.54% 3,298,315,540 GH/s
Feb 18 2017 440,779,902,287 4.41% 3,155,225,442 GH/s
Feb 04 2017 422,170,566,884 7.43% 3,022,014,630 GH/s
Jan 22 2017 392,963,262,344 16.64% 2,812,940,600 GH/s
Jan 10 2017 336,899,932,796 6.05% 2,411,623,656 GH/s
Bitcoin Difficulty: 595,921,917,085
Estimated Next Difficulty: 643,997,221,046 (+8.07%)
Adjust time: After 1664 Blocks, About 10.9 days this is the spot to look for the start time next jump at 1116 not this jump
Hashrate(?): 4,637,688,482 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.4 minutes
3 blocks: 28.4 minutes
6 blocks: 56.7 minutes
Updated:
So 1 compac usb stick from sidehack
and 1 LTC coin from me. upped to 1.5 LTC 2 LTC
If you are overseas I will spring for the shipping of the compac stick. Note the compact stick is the 1 chip version but as always it is fun to play with it.
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