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Topic: Difficulty post ASIC? - page 2. (Read 11607 times)

legendary
Activity: 980
Merit: 1004
Firstbits: Compromised. Thanks, Android!
July 02, 2012, 02:00:49 AM
#52
You don't seem to be able to read the above comments and actually address what they are saying.  I am not trying to troll you, but some very valid points have been made and its like everyone seems to ignore it and then say, "ASIC's are available to EVERYONE,just like a video card you need a few bucks,BUT,you don't need to know how to "build" anything(like a PC).Just buy it,setup the mining software & GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!".   To make it clear, the argument against ASIC is that is will centralize the network over time because people will quit when it is not profitable AND an agency (gov) could easily come in and purchase enough capacity to pull off the 51% attack (their pockets are much deeper and it would be just a trickle in the bucket for them). 

I don't see how anyone is thinking the release of ASICs is in any way going to centralize Bitcoin mining.

For example, I personally could already be mining, but the reason I haven't done it isn't hardware cost. A cheap graphics card isn't exactly extravagant. It's because of (1) the hassle (mainly heat output, but also other problems if scaling up) and (2) the electrical costs. That's just not convenient for casual mining.

Now, I can pre-order a $150 device that draws less power than a fluorescent light bulb and has nearly-negligible hassle, and keep it turned on for the heck of it. I'm helping secure the network, and making a little in the process... it's about like CPU mining before the GPU days, but with a small(ish) upfront cost. And the fact that I have pre-ordered one, but had no intention of GPU (or FPGA) mining just proves that the market of potential miners has expanded, not contracted.

Seriously, I don't understand the fuss.

(Even the 51% attack is less feasible... with more people mining, and a higher hash rate per miner, it's win/win. And it's not as if some agency couldn't just make their own ASICs if no one else did, although eventually someone was bound to.)
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1002
RUM AND CARROTS: A PIRATE LIFE FOR ME
June 27, 2012, 02:01:09 AM
#51
OK.. so I have kind of a different take on where difficulty post-asic will wind up....

I have no idea in hard numbers / actual terms... but in relative terms, it will wind up wherever it needs to be for the break-even running costs point to be around 10 cents per Kw/hr..   (this will of course vary based upon the USD/BTC exchange rate)

So.. if your electric costs more than 10 cents, don't even bother getting on the waiting list.. you'll never get your money back.

If you pay between 5 and 10 cents.. your break even (initial purchase + running costs) will be 1 to several years...   Up to your individual confidince in bitcoin if you wanna play.....

If you pay less than 5 cents.. Time to beg/borrow/mortgage-the-farm and buy as many ASICs as you can.  You will be in the select few who will still be able to mint money mining. 

If you happen to live in the arctic circle, and heat with electric.. well then you might wanna consider robbing a few banks....  Just buy the company outright.

And one last thought...  just like the gold rush, ultimately the ones who make the most money will be those that provide the picks & shovels (errr ASICs).. not the miners. 

Sigg

like some others have said,

people will simply lose interest in bitcoins. 

so a couple dozen people spend lots of $$ on ASICs, it's not worth mining for anyone else.  now why do we care about bitcoins?   so hobbyists can try to recoup their investments?

myself + a handful of friends became interested initially because we could generate a quarter of a bitcoin a day or w/e.  we could have some actual involvement.   

nobody i know spends bitcoins to buy drugs.  i'm not particularly concerned with using USD on anything I buy.

it just won't matter anymore

If you already have GPU mining rigs, I assume you (and most people) will switch to Litecoin. In the past few days it's actually been a bit more profitable to mine LTC and sell for BTC then to mine BTC directly. And there are also a lot more Litecoins that can be mined. We just have to keep the interest of people like you a bit longer so that more services can be developed.
zvs
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1000
https://web.archive.org/web/*/nogleg.com
June 26, 2012, 06:27:00 PM
#50
OK.. so I have kind of a different take on where difficulty post-asic will wind up....

I have no idea in hard numbers / actual terms... but in relative terms, it will wind up wherever it needs to be for the break-even running costs point to be around 10 cents per Kw/hr..   (this will of course vary based upon the USD/BTC exchange rate)

So.. if your electric costs more than 10 cents, don't even bother getting on the waiting list.. you'll never get your money back.

If you pay between 5 and 10 cents.. your break even (initial purchase + running costs) will be 1 to several years...   Up to your individual confidince in bitcoin if you wanna play.....

If you pay less than 5 cents.. Time to beg/borrow/mortgage-the-farm and buy as many ASICs as you can.  You will be in the select few who will still be able to mint money mining. 

If you happen to live in the arctic circle, and heat with electric.. well then you might wanna consider robbing a few banks....  Just buy the company outright.

And one last thought...  just like the gold rush, ultimately the ones who make the most money will be those that provide the picks & shovels (errr ASICs).. not the miners. 

Sigg

like some others have said,

people will simply lose interest in bitcoins. 

so a couple dozen people spend lots of $$ on ASICs, it's not worth mining for anyone else.  now why do we care about bitcoins?   so hobbyists can try to recoup their investments?

myself + a handful of friends became interested initially because we could generate a quarter of a bitcoin a day or w/e.  we could have some actual involvement.   

nobody i know spends bitcoins to buy drugs.  i'm not particularly concerned with using USD on anything I buy.

it just won't matter anymore
legendary
Activity: 1400
Merit: 1005
June 26, 2012, 06:15:32 PM
#49
I just think it's silly to highlight the fact that there is risk involved, when that should be common sense for just about anyone entering any sort of investment to start with.

This sounds like saying that people shouldn't be informed, which contradicts your first sentence.

Have you been paying attention to all the new posters in this forum every single week asking if the "Unknown" mining pool is a threat?

Hundreds of new miners appear to have entered into what could be better called an "nonrefundable three-month layaway". There is no real-world precedence for this in the world of retail, so it is NOT common sense.

Due to the nature of Bitcoin, what if BFL can't raise enough funds to do an ASIC run and Bitcoin increases in value 100%? They can't deliver the goods and they can't return the coin, the best they can do is return a dollar investment in coin, and let's sure hope they are backing up their order info in the process!

How could you possibly be opposed to someone bringing these sorts of issues to bear?
I suppose I am just expecting too much common sense out of people then.  To me, all of the things you just wrote about are simply stating the obvious.

I have found that common sense is not all that common, that phrase is a misnomer.
Likewise, I have found that particular phrase commenting on a phrase to be cliche.  But still, it may be true nonetheless.  Wink
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
June 26, 2012, 06:13:45 PM
#48
I just think it's silly to highlight the fact that there is risk involved, when that should be common sense for just about anyone entering any sort of investment to start with.

This sounds like saying that people shouldn't be informed, which contradicts your first sentence.

Have you been paying attention to all the new posters in this forum every single week asking if the "Unknown" mining pool is a threat?

Hundreds of new miners appear to have entered into what could be better called an "nonrefundable three-month layaway". There is no real-world precedence for this in the world of retail, so it is NOT common sense.

Due to the nature of Bitcoin, what if BFL can't raise enough funds to do an ASIC run and Bitcoin increases in value 100%? They can't deliver the goods and they can't return the coin, the best they can do is return a dollar investment in coin, and let's sure hope they are backing up their order info in the process!

How could you possibly be opposed to someone bringing these sorts of issues to bear?
I suppose I am just expecting too much common sense out of people then.  To me, all of the things you just wrote about are simply stating the obvious.

I have found that common sense is not all that common, that phrase is a misnomer.
sr. member
Activity: 467
Merit: 250
June 26, 2012, 06:10:16 PM
#47
Let's just hope, don't hold breath, that bitcoin adoption and tx fees start to represent a decent incentive.

^^ This ^^

Together they could make processing transactions based on fees alone possible, and potentially profitable.

legendary
Activity: 1400
Merit: 1005
June 26, 2012, 06:03:59 PM
#46
I just think it's silly to highlight the fact that there is risk involved, when that should be common sense for just about anyone entering any sort of investment to start with.

This sounds like saying that people shouldn't be informed, which contradicts your first sentence.

Have you been paying attention to all the new posters in this forum every single week asking if the "Unknown" mining pool is a threat?

Hundreds of new miners appear to have entered into what could be better called an "nonrefundable three-month layaway". There is no real-world precedence for this in the world of retail, so it is NOT common sense.

Due to the nature of Bitcoin, what if BFL can't raise enough funds to do an ASIC run and Bitcoin increases in value 100%? They can't deliver the goods and they can't return the coin, the best they can do is return a dollar investment in coin, and let's sure hope they are backing up their order info in the process!

How could you possibly be opposed to someone bringing these sorts of issues to bear?
I suppose I am just expecting too much common sense out of people then.  To me, all of the things you just wrote about are simply stating the obvious.
donator
Activity: 1419
Merit: 1015
June 26, 2012, 06:01:42 PM
#45
I just think it's silly to highlight the fact that there is risk involved, when that should be common sense for just about anyone entering any sort of investment to start with.

This sounds like saying that people shouldn't be informed, which contradicts your first sentence.

Have you been paying attention to all the new posters in this forum every single week asking if the "Unknown" mining pool is a threat?

Hundreds of new miners appear to have entered into what could be better called an "nonrefundable three-month layaway". There is no real-world precedence for this in the world of retail, so it is NOT common sense.

Due to the nature of Bitcoin, what if BFL can't raise enough funds to do an ASIC run and Bitcoin increases in value 100% after they've been selling them for USD? They now can't deliver the goods and they can't return the coin, the best they can do is return a dollar investment in coin, and let's sure hope they are backing up their order info in the process!

How could you possibly be opposed to someone bringing these sorts of issues to bear?
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
Inactive
June 26, 2012, 05:49:30 PM
#44
http://www.sfgate.com/business/prweb/article/BitPay-Shatters-Record-for-Bitcoin-Payment-3663354.php

According to that article, Butterfly took >$250,000 in prepayments for ASIC's. I suspect we're looking at difficulty D-day assuming they deliver. Assuming they sold mostly "singles", that's  192 of them. 192 x 40Ghash = 7,680 Ghash... I can't guess for removal of old hardware, but that's a 50% increase in network wide-hash rate.

And I would guess there's at least that much waiting in the wings to see if BFL actually ships... So at least 2x the difficulty well before the reward drop doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility.




I actually assume they sold the 1,000USD version the most. I'm small time and it didn't even cross my mind to go for the single, and why would you go for a single? As far as I can tell, this could be the last opportunity to mine bitcoin. I doubt ASIC will get much cheaper- or faster. As we get closer and closer to the end of mining, buying rigs will make less and less sense, thus no manufacturer of ASIC has any incentive to sell in volume with price discounts. AS for getting faster- I doubt it, unless some engineer really thinks they can squeeze a large chunk of extra performance by redesigning a new chip why bother?

IMHO. :-)



Let's just hope, don't hold breath, that bitcoin adoption and tx fees start to represent a decent incentive.

Tongue

On the bright side, if you are a bitcoin believer, appropriately priced ASICs (eventually nearer to production cost - com'on competition) will allow one to support bitcoin transactions at a very reasonable cost.
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1002
RUM AND CARROTS: A PIRATE LIFE FOR ME
June 26, 2012, 04:49:35 PM
#43
http://www.sfgate.com/business/prweb/article/BitPay-Shatters-Record-for-Bitcoin-Payment-3663354.php

According to that article, Butterfly took >$250,000 in prepayments for ASIC's. I suspect we're looking at difficulty D-day assuming they deliver. Assuming they sold mostly "singles", that's  192 of them. 192 x 40Ghash = 7,680 Ghash... I can't guess for removal of old hardware, but that's a 50% increase in network wide-hash rate.

And I would guess there's at least that much waiting in the wings to see if BFL actually ships... So at least 2x the difficulty well before the reward drop doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility.




I actually assume they sold the 1,000USD version the most. I'm small time and it didn't even cross my mind to go for the single, and why would you go for a single? As far as I can tell, this could be the last opportunity to mine bitcoin. I doubt ASIC will get much cheaper- or faster. As we get closer and closer to the end of mining, buying rigs will make less and less sense, thus no manufacturer of ASIC has any incentive to sell in volume with price discounts. AS for getting faster- I doubt it, unless some engineer really thinks they can squeeze a large chunk of extra performance by redesigning a new chip why bother?

IMHO. :-)


hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
June 26, 2012, 04:35:00 PM
#42
http://www.sfgate.com/business/prweb/article/BitPay-Shatters-Record-for-Bitcoin-Payment-3663354.php

According to that article, Butterfly took >$250,000 in prepayments for ASIC's. I suspect we're looking at difficulty D-day assuming they deliver. Assuming they sold mostly "singles", that's  192 of them. 192 x 40Ghash = 7,680 Ghash... I can't guess for removal of old hardware, but that's a 50% increase in network wide-hash rate.

And I would guess there's at least that much waiting in the wings to see if BFL actually ships... So at least 2x the difficulty well before the reward drop doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility.



That announcement is only first 24 hours sales. By the time they, Bit-Pay, came to the forums to announce it, they were up to 46k BTC. That does not account for orders after that in BTC up until now. It also does not account for bank-wire orders.

I'm guaging more like 10.5TH to 35TH. The other catch is we have absolutly zero way to know what exactly BFL will actually deliver and when. COuld be only Jalepenos. Could be only SC's. COuld be only 500 of each and a few 1TH minis. We have no clue unfortunatly. :/

What we can guage is that unless the miners actually buy like 90TH worth and it is actually delivered all at once. Is that everyone who does get an asic will be very profitable until either BFL lower the prices or find a way to get more sales. Unlike the gpu/gaming market there is only so many people who actually want to mine.

cheers
sr. member
Activity: 467
Merit: 250
June 26, 2012, 04:01:12 PM
#41
http://www.sfgate.com/business/prweb/article/BitPay-Shatters-Record-for-Bitcoin-Payment-3663354.php

According to that article, Butterfly took >$250,000 in prepayments for ASIC's. I suspect we're looking at difficulty D-day assuming they deliver. Assuming they sold mostly "singles", that's  192 of them. 192 x 40Ghash = 7,680 Ghash... I can't guess for removal of old hardware, but that's a 50% increase in network wide-hash rate.

And I would guess there's at least that much waiting in the wings to see if BFL actually ships... So at least 2x the difficulty well before the reward drop doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility.






legendary
Activity: 1400
Merit: 1005
June 26, 2012, 03:52:30 PM
#40
And? If either one of them didn't account for that possibility, they only have themselves to blame.

So you admit that wasn't, in fact, my only point. No purchaser of BFL products today knows which ASIC is going to be run first, that's pretty imperative for preordering without the chance for a refund.

A cursory glance at the forums seems to show that they clearly don't think they are the only ones to blame.

Let me ask you this question to show how silly your argument is: Why was the allinvain hack bad for Bitcoin?

After all, it wasn't an underlying security issue with the blockchain. Plus, if he should have stored most of his Bitcoin in an offline wallet or multiple offline wallets, right? Duh, everyone should know that by now and should have known by then, too.

If you think new Bitcoin miners "screwing themselves" over because of a lack of understanding on difficulty adjustment isn't a big deal for Bitcoin, I guess you're just an ass. I'm all for survival of the fittest here, but to not see even a need to educate people on this? That's asinine.
I never said there wasn't a need to educate people about the potential for long-term ROI's on these ASIC investments.  I just think it's silly to highlight the fact that there is risk involved, when that should be common sense for just about anyone entering any sort of investment to start with.
donator
Activity: 1419
Merit: 1015
June 26, 2012, 03:48:28 PM
#39
And? If either one of them didn't account for that possibility, they only have themselves to blame.

So you admit that wasn't, in fact, my only point. No purchaser of BFL products today knows which ASIC is going to be run first, that's pretty imperative for preordering without the chance for a refund.

A cursory glance at the forums seems to show that they clearly don't think they are the only ones to blame.

Let me ask you this question to show how silly your argument is: Why was the allinvain hack bad for Bitcoin?

After all, it wasn't an underlying security issue with the blockchain. Plus, if he should have stored most of his Bitcoin in an offline wallet or multiple offline wallets, right? Duh, everyone should know that by now and should have known by then, too.

If you think new Bitcoin miners "screwing themselves" over because of a lack of understanding on difficulty adjustment isn't a big deal for Bitcoin, I guess you're just an ass. I'm all for survival of the fittest here, but to not see even a need to educate people on this? That's asinine.
legendary
Activity: 1400
Merit: 1005
June 26, 2012, 03:24:07 PM
#38
So your ONLY point is that people who buy later than the first adopters will get a lower return?

One person bought a SC Jalepeno, one person bought an SC Bitforce Single, both yesterday. What is your bet that both receive product on the same date? That's not an "early adopter advantage" that's a vast difference in ROI.
And? If either one of them didn't account for that possibility, they only have themselves to blame.
donator
Activity: 1419
Merit: 1015
June 26, 2012, 03:05:25 PM
#37
So your ONLY point is that people who buy later than the first adopters will get a lower return?

One person bought a SC Jalepeno, one person bought an SC Bitforce Single, both yesterday. What is your bet that both receive product on the same date? That's not an "early adopter advantage" that's a vast difference in ROI.
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
Inactive
June 26, 2012, 02:02:09 PM
#36
So again, I ask the question, why is a years-long ROI a bad thing?  And I'll make it more specific:  Why is it bad to Bitcoin?

I think you're missing the point of concern here.

People buy a product like a BFL device and expect it to:
1. Be delivered by X date,
2. Pay itself off within Y months, and
3. Hash at Z rate.

BFL has over-delivered on point #3, but their horrible performance on #1 and #2 means people are setting up for disaster.

Case in point: which is shipping first, the SC Jalepenos or SC Singles? How are two different ASIC devices going to ship simultaneously?

So why is a "years-long" ROI bad? Well, because the first people to get them aren't going to have that "years-long" ROI, they are going to pay off their BFL device within weeks. It's all the other fools that get their devices last that are going to have "years-long" ROI, and if you think that isn't going to be bad to see that kind of divergence, you're just being silly.

However on the very narrow point you mention, is it bad for Bitcoin? Absolutely not. Now's the time to buy, IMHO, time to take advantage of all the suckers that just wrapped up a quarter of a million USD in non-refundable deposits!


Yes,  BFL needs to up their game on point 1.  I want them to answer the specific question of how many staff will be operating each assembly line.

I don't believe their assurances that they can get these units out the door quickly.  And with the ridiculous amount of cash they will be pulling in BFL can certainly afford cheap final assembly labor.

I'm optimistic on ASIC chip production.  The chips are produced at a small fraction of the cost of FPGA and it's not like BFL will have any sourcing problems.  They alone are the customer.

So, if BFL doesn't up their delivery game it makes them look much, much worse.  I hope people get this.
legendary
Activity: 1400
Merit: 1005
June 26, 2012, 01:58:56 PM
#35
So again, I ask the question, why is a years-long ROI a bad thing?  And I'll make it more specific:  Why is it bad to Bitcoin?

I think you're missing the point of concern here.

People buy a product like a BFL device and expect it to:
1. Be delivered by X date,
2. Pay itself off within Y months, and
3. Hash at Z rate.

BFL has over-delivered on point #3, but their horrible performance on #1 and #2 means people are setting up for disaster.

Case in point: which is shipping first, the SC Jalepenos or SC Singles? How are two different ASIC devices going to ship simultaneously?

So why is a "years-long" ROI bad? Well, because the first people to get them aren't going to have that "years-long" ROI, they are going to pay off their BFL device within weeks. It's all the other fools that get their devices last that are going to have "years-long" ROI, and if you think that isn't going to be bad to see that kind of divergence, you're just being silly.

However on the very narrow point you mention, is it bad for Bitcoin? Absolutely not. Now's the time to buy, IMHO, time to take advantage of all the suckers that just wrapped up a quarter of a million USD in non-refundable deposits!
...

So your ONLY point is that people who buy later than the first adopters will get a lower return?  Well, duh, they're coming to the party later!  And anyone who doesn't do the math before buying DESERVES to have a lower/longer ROI than they expected.

People are making a huge deal out of nothing, IMO.  It's the end of the world because some people might make bad investments that take a while to recoup?  Big freaking deal...
donator
Activity: 1419
Merit: 1015
June 26, 2012, 01:50:46 PM
#34
So again, I ask the question, why is a years-long ROI a bad thing?  And I'll make it more specific:  Why is it bad to Bitcoin?

I think you're missing the point of concern here.

People buy a product like a BFL device and expect it to:
1. Be delivered by X date,
2. Pay itself off within Y months, and
3. Hash at Z rate.

BFL has over-delivered on point #3, but their horrible performance on #1 and #2 means people are setting up for disaster.

Case in point: which is shipping first, the SC Jalepenos or SC Singles? How are two different ASIC devices going to ship simultaneously?

So why is a "years-long" ROI bad? Well, because the first people to get them aren't going to have that "years-long" ROI, they are going to pay off their BFL device within weeks. It's all the other fools that get their devices last that are going to have "years-long" ROI, and if you think that isn't going to be bad to see that kind of divergence, you're just being silly.

However on the very narrow point you mention, is it bad for Bitcoin? Absolutely not. Now's the time to buy, IMHO, time to take advantage of all the suckers that just wrapped up a quarter of a million USD in non-refundable deposits!
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
June 26, 2012, 01:12:46 PM
#33
Well we know that at *Least* a quarter million dollars of ASIC was bought yesterday with Bitcoin.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitpay-shatters-record-for-bitcoin-payment-processing-2012-06-26

So that means a minimum of about 8.3TeraHashes is coming down the pipe in October. Anyone care to crunch the numbers about what that represents for difficulty adjustment?



5 posts up from yours, contains about all the math crunching one can hope for at this point.
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