Topic: Difficulty Should Be Falling Faster (Read 4117 times)
I mine 90% for the fun of it. So if the prices decrease, it is a minus factor but not much, I enjoy bitcoin as a hobby. Maybe those who are doing it for the money may be dropping off. But it depends as long as variable costs is still lower than the bitcoin prices miners will continue.
imo we are pretty much done in terms of difficulty drop -> the next adjustment will go up again.
Reason being those who dropped out because of price did already.
We are not in no matter what territory yet but for a significant outflow of miners there would have to happen more than a price stagnation within the trendline. If there were another scandal (if the recent mtgox hack turns out to be severe, another bruce wanger incident or something) people would loose confidence.
Reason being those who dropped out because of price did already.
We are not in no matter what territory yet but for a significant outflow of miners there would have to happen more than a price stagnation within the trendline. If there were another scandal (if the recent mtgox hack turns out to be severe, another bruce wanger incident or something) people would loose confidence.
Do you have any data to back up your conclusion?
Can you type up some numbers and post here to show this?
Do you have any data to back up your conclusion?
I'm getting sick of your unscientifically unrobust non-arguements up in here!
Please people, if you are going to be unscientific, do it robustly!
LOL
Do you have any data to back up your conclusion?
I'm getting sick of your unscientifically unrobust non-arguements up in here!
Please people, if you are going to be unscientific, do it robustly!
Do you have any data to back up your conclusion?
I'm getting sick of your unscientifically unrobust non-arguements up in here! imo we are pretty much done in terms of difficulty drop -> the next adjustment will go up again.
Reason being those who dropped out because of price did already.
We are not in no matter what territory yet but for a significant outflow of miners there would have to happen more than a price stagnation within the trendline. If there were another scandal (if the recent mtgox hack turns out to be severe, another bruce wanger incident or something) people would loose confidence.
Reason being those who dropped out because of price did already.
We are not in no matter what territory yet but for a significant outflow of miners there would have to happen more than a price stagnation within the trendline. If there were another scandal (if the recent mtgox hack turns out to be severe, another bruce wanger incident or something) people would loose confidence.
Do you have any data to back up your conclusion?
Can you type up some numbers and post here to show this?
Do you have any data to back up your conclusion?
I'm getting sick of your unscientifically unrobust non-arguements up in here!
Yep,
Quote
And a notable mention for purchased electricity that is "free" because it would have gone to heating.
The weather is a changin' in the good ol' USA! Cold fronts, rain, soon snow, and me warming by the ice-blue glow of my miners. Ahhh, a little slice of heaven right there. Really, what else could anybody want?Except that I believe most homes in the US are heated by natural gas because it costs about 1/3 as much for the same amount of heat. So it'll work for some people, but won't be cost effective for others if they have to compete with miners for whom cost is no concern. At least however the electricity is cheaper in many places in the winter compared to the summer. All my miners are off, by the way... BTC much easier for me to acquire just by buying it.
Yep,
Quote
And a notable mention for purchased electricity that is "free" because it would have gone to heating.
The weather is a changin' in the good ol' USA! Cold fronts, rain, soon snow, and me warming by the ice-blue glow of my miners. Ahhh, a little slice of heaven right there. Really, what else could anybody want?
I think difficulty will continue to increase for the following reason: mining will shift off people doing it deliberately, on to somebody else's dime. That includes miners mining in places where electricity is included in the rent, or where the mining is done on somebody else's computer without their knowledge (including botnets and "browser mining"). And a notable mention for purchased electricity that is "free" because it would have gone to heating.
Didn't I just see a posting in here from a game author wondering how he could embed a Bitcoin miner into his GPU-intensive game without taking away from graphics performance?
Didn't I just see a posting in here from a game author wondering how he could embed a Bitcoin miner into his GPU-intensive game without taking away from graphics performance?
imo we are pretty much done in terms of difficulty drop -> the next adjustment will go up again.
Reason being those who dropped out because of price did already.
We are not in no matter what territory yet but for a significant outflow of miners there would have to happen more than a price stagnation within the trendline. If there were another scandal (if the recent mtgox hack turns out to be severe, another bruce wanger incident or something) people would loose confidence.
Reason being those who dropped out because of price did already.
We are not in no matter what territory yet but for a significant outflow of miners there would have to happen more than a price stagnation within the trendline. If there were another scandal (if the recent mtgox hack turns out to be severe, another bruce wanger incident or something) people would loose confidence.
Do you have any data to back up your conclusion?
imo we are pretty much done in terms of difficulty drop -> the next adjustment will go up again.
Reason being those who dropped out because of price did already.
We are not in no matter what territory yet but for a significant outflow of miners there would have to happen more than a price stagnation within the trendline. If there were another scandal (if the recent mtgox hack turns out to be severe, another bruce wanger incident or something) people would loose confidence.
Reason being those who dropped out because of price did already.
We are not in no matter what territory yet but for a significant outflow of miners there would have to happen more than a price stagnation within the trendline. If there were another scandal (if the recent mtgox hack turns out to be severe, another bruce wanger incident or something) people would loose confidence.
Do you have any data to back up your conclusion?
imo we are pretty much done in terms of difficulty drop -> the next adjustment will go up again.
Reason being those who dropped out because of price did already.
We are not in no matter what territory yet but for a significant outflow of miners there would have to happen more than a price stagnation within the trendline. If there were another scandal (if the recent mtgox hack turns out to be severe, another bruce wanger incident or something) people would loose confidence.
Reason being those who dropped out because of price did already.
We are not in no matter what territory yet but for a significant outflow of miners there would have to happen more than a price stagnation within the trendline. If there were another scandal (if the recent mtgox hack turns out to be severe, another bruce wanger incident or something) people would loose confidence.
also, if the difficulty was to drop much faster, then you would also end up with an increase just as fast. presumably from all those who would get right back in with lower difficulty.
It seems likely that there is less chance that people will stop mining in the high difficulty periods and start in the low periods if the changes comes frequently. If the difficulty starts fluctuating like it does with namecoins the cycle will be self reinforcing. A noticable drop in difficulty will make people add more than the current amount of mining power. When the difficulty change comes it will increase to more than the current amount, making it even less profitable than it is now. That makes the next difficulty drop even larger, and the next increase larger than the first. With many days between the changes instead of hours it is much easier to adapt to this cycle of turning miners on and off. in the end, you'd have a net gain of what?
zero
the algorithm is designed to "smooth" things out in the long run. time is key here.
this is by design.
also, if the difficulty was to drop much faster, then you would also end up with an increase just as fast. presumably from all those who would get right back in with lower difficulty.
so then difficulty would jump alot quickly.
in the end, you'd have a net gain of what?
this is by design.
also, if the difficulty was to drop much faster, then you would also end up with an increase just as fast. presumably from all those who would get right back in with lower difficulty.
so then difficulty would jump alot quickly.
in the end, you'd have a net gain of what?
ermmm dude... block production has been well below 6 per hour for over 24 hours now.... 2 difficulty re-targets per day like SC seems like a good idea right now.
good luck convincing any of them that
Difficulty has only an indirect relationship with price since it's filtered through miner psychology.
ermmm dude... block production has been well below 6 per hour for over 24 hours now.... 2 difficulty re-targets per day like SC seems like a good idea right now.
good luck convincing any of them that
^Exactly.
If difficulty is linked to price, then difficulty should be falling faster. Some developer must have coded things wrong
because price is collapsing and difficulty is flatlining. We want sub-million difficulty!.
because price is collapsing and difficulty is flatlining. We want sub-million difficulty!.
For the difficulty to go down you need a drop in the number of miners thus decreasing the hashrate thus decreasing the number of coins being mined.
The code has nothing to do with it, other than to make the correct call based on the number of coins being generated. And only a decrease in the required number of coins will result in a decrease in difficulty.
In theory, in this mining world, if the price drops then people would be expected to leave, thus coin generation decreases, thus difficulty decreases. But in reality people are stubborn and unwilling to give up or step back and reassess the situation.
Jeez, I think I just talked a load of b£&*^ks
I'm confused, lol
Jump to: