For a 30% increase in diff, network needs a minimum of 50T of new hashing power. Not very likely in next 10 days.
Anyway, nice effort on your part. How are you calculating the data? Is there some webpage with calculations, or are you pulling data from blockchain?
Topic: Difficulty speculation for the round started on 29/6/13 - page 2. (Read 2590 times)
I'll track the estimated difficulty increase over 126 block periods. The increase shown is the increase in difficulty from the last round, not an increase between blocks. I missed the first 2 periods but I'll try not to miss any more. Just in case though, feel free to post the right value if I haven't updated the post and nobody else has posted the value.
From the initial values, 3.16% increase 1/8 into the round, it's looking to be a 24% increase for this round. I suspect that the rate of increase will itself be increasing though, so my initial estimate for this round is about a 30% increase.
1,720 blocks remaining (just over 1/8 into the round) = 3.16 % increase
1,638 (3/16) = 4.72%
1,512 (4/16) = 5.12%
1,386 (5/16) = 6.76%
1,260 (6/16) = 7.4%
1,134 (7/16) = 7.95%
1,008 (8/16) = 8.94%
882 881 (9/16) = 9.99%
756 (10/16) = 12.95%
630 629 (11/16) = 15.48%
504 503 (12/16) = 15.52%
378 (13/16) = 18.33%
252 (14/16) = 19.98%
126 (15/16) = 20.21%
0 (new round) = 22.63%
So, we're half way through now and here's a quick summary. The difficulty round was seeing impressive increases between periods of about 1.5%. That fell to 0.4% and has steadily increase backup to 0.99%. Based on the initial results, the difficulty increase for the next round should be at least 18% based on doubling what it's at now. Taking into account the accelerating rate of increase, it should be a bit higher, so say at least 20%.
3/4 into the round and we're at 15.5%. We've seen some big 3% gains in a couple of periods, yet over the 11th, the increase was only 0.04%, the smallest so far. Was is just an extremely unlucky period or did it correspond to the lack of shipping on previous weekends?
So, at the end of the round, my initial estimate of 24% based on the first 252 blocks turned out to be pretty close. The difficulty increases varied wildly, from 0.04% to 2.96%.
From the initial values, 3.16% increase 1/8 into the round, it's looking to be a 24% increase for this round. I suspect that the rate of increase will itself be increasing though, so my initial estimate for this round is about a 30% increase.
1,720 blocks remaining (just over 1/8 into the round) = 3.16 % increase
1,638 (3/16) = 4.72%
1,512 (4/16) = 5.12%
1,386 (5/16) = 6.76%
1,260 (6/16) = 7.4%
1,134 (7/16) = 7.95%
1,008 (8/16) = 8.94%
756 (10/16) = 12.95%
378 (13/16) = 18.33%
252 (14/16) = 19.98%
126 (15/16) = 20.21%
0 (new round) = 22.63%
So, we're half way through now and here's a quick summary. The difficulty round was seeing impressive increases between periods of about 1.5%. That fell to 0.4% and has steadily increase backup to 0.99%. Based on the initial results, the difficulty increase for the next round should be at least 18% based on doubling what it's at now. Taking into account the accelerating rate of increase, it should be a bit higher, so say at least 20%.
3/4 into the round and we're at 15.5%. We've seen some big 3% gains in a couple of periods, yet over the 11th, the increase was only 0.04%, the smallest so far. Was is just an extremely unlucky period or did it correspond to the lack of shipping on previous weekends?
So, at the end of the round, my initial estimate of 24% based on the first 252 blocks turned out to be pretty close. The difficulty increases varied wildly, from 0.04% to 2.96%.
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