Topic: Ding Dong! The Bubble-burst is done! $90-95 is the new normal - page 4. (Read 8017 times)

Hopefully it is not that linear.  I would prefer the stable low to be the 80's and 90's we have been in.  I am totally find with the rally being between 1850 and 3870 though! 

This is very interesting. Thank you for bringing this up, semaforo.

  In the case of 1,3,5,7 the pattern is always adding 2. The next in the sequence would logically be 9,11,13,15. Or with 1,3,7,15,31 the next would be 63, 127, 255 and so on, because the number being added is doubling each time. First was 1 added to 2, then 4 added to 3, then 8 added to 7, then 16 added to 15 and so on. So you can determine a pattern of what will come next based on the available data, the basis of all speculation.

  In the case of bitcoin, if you were to apply linear reasoning to the chart you see two price spikes. First, there is stability at around 1 dollar, suddenly spiking to 30 dollars, then crashing and stabilizing at roughly 5 dollars for about 10 months, before beginning the gradual run up that culminated in the rally to 260. So the pattern is stability at 1, rally to 30, profit taking to 5, rally to 260, profit taking to...
  30 is 30 times 1. 260 is 52 times 5. There are two ways you could see this- the next rally will be either 22 times higher than the previous, or 73% larger. In other words, either 74 or 90 times higher than the bottom of this downtrend.
    To determine the downtrend, we see 5 is 1/6th of 30, and 5 times 1. 1/6th of 260 would be 43, and 5 time 5 would be 25. This would mean if this were a logical, linear process, the next rally off of a stable low between 25 and 43 will be to somewhere between 1850 and 3870, with profit taking then crashing the price to a long term low between 125 and 645.


   But this is not a linear or logical process.

I don't understand the (mathematical) pattern, plz teach. The rest I understand and in complete agreement with, I've been arguing the same points for awhile.

Listen to semaforo. He knows his stuff. Re-read his whole posting. I came to the same conclusion too.

11M bitcoins

You'd be quite right in this assumption. I started looking at BTC when they were 4-5 USD......I was in disbelief as it rose from 12-50. Go back further and people would have been in disbelief as it passed $1

In other words, don't believe any bold predictions on what the price of BTC will do. No one can predict something as complex as the long term relationship between USD and BTC...

How many of the long term Bitcoin holders/miners ever thought $90 would be the norm?  I am relatively new so I would assume that people would have laughed at the thought a year ago.

+1

Many years, probably. If you invest that much money, you're probably quite rich to start with.

In retrospect it is always easy to identify trend reversals...

I think we have yet to see true capitulation. Still too much optimism for my taste.


ya.ya.yo!

Lol all the whales are still holding on to their 100$+ bitcoins

They're waiting along time for those promised profits... losing against inflation and other opportunities...

how long will they be able to take it?

Perhaps the capitulation did happen immediately by the whales.  Now they are buying and will let it go as low as the selling pressure can push it.

What an odd assumption. Curious as to what possible argument you could make in favor of this. I mean, is your argument basically that we won't see high volume again, until we do? And when we do, it won't be capitulation? Why? I don't see it.

If we saw capitulation, as you say, why the downtrend after the wave up from 50? Looks a lot more like a dead cat bounce then, doesn't it? If you cater to the theory that capitulation = bottom (only buyers left), then it's pretty unlikely that capitulation happened over 7 days, followed by an 8-day bounce, followed by a 3-month downtrend which has not ended.
Yep.  

Experience tells us that a bubble has only collapsed completely when nobody is calling it.

Therefore the decline will continue for a while...


ya.ya.yo!

im witnessing a spike in price and buys. will it continue is the question. IMO it will be 120  in a few weeks. 3-4 but who am I to say, just a speculation. if we keep seeing these negative things and problems ie- SD sell then ya it could not get that high.  If things get left alone and the markets just goes on its natural course I do believe that 120 is very probable.

but im just a loan wolf 

Google trend for "buy bitcoins" looks like it hit the bottom:
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%22buy%20bitcoins%22&date=11%2F2012%2010m&cmpt=q

Note how the influx of people interested in buying Bitcoin kept relatively high even after the bubble.

Gee, someone else who's noticed that even if you have a valid prescription, the Silk Road price is the same as Wal-Mart, and no sane person actually wants to go to Wal-Mart.

LOL, there will be many false calls that the 'new bottom' is in on the long journey to the real long term bottom.

I'll believe it when it hits 120.

At 100 it was so shaky that all it took was news of the Satoshi Dice sale to drop it by a sawbuck. It's still recovering from that.

When It's galloping up as it was in March, even a fork in the blockchain only caused a dip that lasted a few hours.

It's a little early to declare victory, but it's certainly looking better.