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Topic: Disadvantages of Bitcoin why price might drop. (Read 6738 times)

sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
Seems things are rallying too fast.   Here are some reason why bitcoin could crash. 

1. If you trade in bitcoins you still have to find a buyer of them if you want a pizza.  Thus you will have to use a service to exchange your money to dollars on their terms.  If you drive to a bitcoin meet-up you are still wasting gas to do the exchange.  You will have a middleman more often.

2. There is a risk of lost, stolen, or disk failure wallets.  Yes you can lose your wallet in real life, but you usually find it under the bed. 

3. Shops are slow in adjusting prices, if the price rises and their store might have prices that are 2 months old and they seem expensive.   What if prices crash 90% will the shop honor the price?  I doubt it they buy all their materials in USD, CAD, RUB, or EUD.

4. There is no record of exchange.  What if you buy a car and you go to pick it up and there is no car or address?  You are out 10,000 BTC.  If you buy something over the internet even for 1 BTC, if they don't send it you are out of luck.

5. The churning of your hard-drive is already annoying to run the bitcoin client.  If the economy gets 10x bigger that churning is going to be 10x bigger.  Are there any stats to Mb per day you waste on hard disk space?  What about bandwidth?

6. In the end you might have to end up using a bitcoin bank anyways where you store your bitcoins to take the risk out of lost wallets.  Then you run the risk that the goldsmiths, take your money and spend it loans and blow.

7. There is always the risk of someone destroying the network or finding a flaw and taking the system down.  Since BTC could be used for money laundering, it might be a big goal of the governments of the world to take it down.

8. What if people stopped mining BTC, or the euphoria of a deflationary currency would people lose interest in it?

I suppose you say all these are already factored into the price of BTC.   


"But guys! You can't live in that house! It doesn't even have a roof! How can you ever expect that to succeed! This is not going to work, guys! Stop working on it, you can't even live in it!"
full member
Activity: 184
Merit: 100
now there is immediate android application that can be integrated easily with any  POS (Point of Sale) Wink
full member
Activity: 156
Merit: 100
wat if we all die? nobody will trade bitcoins anymoar!!!111  omg! *panic*
legendary
Activity: 2408
Merit: 1121
11. What if someone who doesn't understand anything keeps posting threads, will the forum server EXPLODE???

Guess we'll see...
full member
Activity: 184
Merit: 100
1. You can't buy a pizza with gold either.

2. Wallet encrypted and stored in three places including a cloud storage account is safer than any physical wallet can be.  It's not rocket science - it's only a matter of educating people.

3. Stores can hedge if that is a big problem for them.  Or they can just hang on to them until Bitcoin goes mainstream.

4. Nothing stopping the two parties from using an escrow service or web of trust. Except unlike Paypal and CCs,  it's not mandatory.

5. Regular users who switch off the client don't compromise network integrity. The network can easily do its job with miners alone.

6. Or you just sit down for a few days and educate yourself. See (2). It's a worthwile investment considering what's at stake, don't you think?

7. Yes, it's still a beta technology. There are risks and failure scenarios. Don't invest in Bitcoin if you can't affort to lose it.

8. Bitcoin fulfils some real, practical needs that no other technology fulfils at the moment. Even if the euphoria dies down, there will be a core of users who buy Bitcoin for sober reasons.


Yes, all of these are factored into the price, as well as future expectations of all of these.

Good shooting Smiley
hero member
Activity: 717
Merit: 501
I just thought of a horrible reason for bitcoin.  I think I read about it somewhere else already.  It is a waste of electricity.  There is no reason someone can't make a centralized currency with 21,000,000 of the currency outstanding and use only 1 KW for the entire safe secure system.

BTC is approaching 1000 Gh/s.  At 2Mh per watt.  That means 500 KW to run the current system, enough for a 100 homes.

No Termites. 5% of the crust is iron. Wont burn. Wont rot.
full member
Activity: 182
Merit: 101
Seems things are rallying too fast.   Here are some reason why bitcoin could crash. 

1. If you trade in bitcoins you still have to find a buyer of them if you want a pizza.  Thus you will have to use a service to exchange your money to dollars on their terms.  If you drive to a bitcoin meet-up you are still wasting gas to do the exchange.  You will have a middleman more often.

2. There is a risk of lost, stolen, or disk failure wallets.  Yes you can lose your wallet in real life, but you usually find it under the bed. 

3. Shops are slow in adjusting prices, if the price rises and their store might have prices that are 2 months old and they seem expensive.   What if prices crash 90% will the shop honor the price?  I doubt it they buy all their materials in USD, CAD, RUB, or EUD.

4. There is no record of exchange.  What if you buy a car and you go to pick it up and there is no car or address?  You are out 10,000 BTC.  If you buy something over the internet even for 1 BTC, if they don't send it you are out of luck.

5. The churning of your hard-drive is already annoying to run the bitcoin client.  If the economy gets 10x bigger that churning is going to be 10x bigger.  Are there any stats to Mb per day you waste on hard disk space?  What about bandwidth?

6. In the end you might have to end up using a bitcoin bank anyways where you store your bitcoins to take the risk out of lost wallets.  Then you run the risk that the goldsmiths, take your money and spend it loans and blow.

7. There is always the risk of someone destroying the network or finding a flaw and taking the system down.  Since BTC could be used for money laundering, it might be a big goal of the governments of the world to take it down.

8. What if people stopped mining BTC, or the euphoria of a deflationary currency would people lose interest in it?

I suppose you say all these are already factored into the price of BTC.   

newbie
Activity: 17
Merit: 0
Also in the relatively distant future quantum computers might be a threat (though I am not sure about it).
hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 1022
No Maps for These Territories
I'm not so sure! Yeah, my mining rigs can mine bitcoins, but I can barely open firefox on one. (1.6Ghz single core CPU with 1 Gig of RAM - so slow)
And, did you ever find a block? That'd be like mining gold and diamonds with a toothpick.
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But I think individuals will still rely on in for micro transactions and trading, as it is a great tool, being decentralized and sort of anonymous. 
Exactly. IMO, the only thing that would completely destroy bitcoin would be if an unfixable, retroactively exploitable, mathematical flaw was found in the block hashing/verification algorithm.
newbie
Activity: 7
Merit: 0
+1 to sending wallets into space, lol

If there is some sort of crash (as in value goes down alot and no shops are willing to accept btc anymore) at least all the hardcore miners could host massive FPS LAN parties with their rigs !
But I think individuals will still rely on in for micro transactions and trading, as it is a great tool, being decentralized and sort of anonymous. 
hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 1022
No Maps for These Territories
WHAT IF THE WORLD BLOWS UP!!!! Sad
BITCOIN WOULD CRASH!!! We must send the contents of our wallets into space immediately, in the hope an alien civilization will continue mining!



 
hero member
Activity: 590
Merit: 500
I agree, this can be annoying. There are two types of clients that exist in theory but not practice. The first is the light weight client, which only downloads block headers. This would be a big improvement over the standard clients, which has to store full blocks. There is also the ultra-lightweight client which would need to store even less information, but would require some method of receiving data outside the normal Bitcoin channels.

Aren't full blocks required to assure the system of bitcoin stays up. How much disk space does a block take up now?

technically, the full block chain is only needed for someone who is mining.  for simply doing transactions, the headers-only version of the block chain is perfectly adequate.

at this time, the average block size since the start is about 1.2KB.  the most recent 20 blocks average to 6.5KB
hero member
Activity: 1036
Merit: 502
1. You can't buy a pizza with gold either.

2. Wallet encrypted and stored in three places including a cloud storage account is safer than any physical wallet can be.  It's not rocket science - it's only a matter of educating people.

3. Stores can hedge if that is a big problem for them.  Or they can just hang on to them until Bitcoin goes mainstream.

4. Nothing stopping the two parties from using an escrow service or web of trust. Except unlike Paypal and CCs,  it's not mandatory.

5. Regular users who switch off the client don't compromise network integrity. The network can easily do its job with miners alone.

6. Or you just sit down for a few days and educate yourself. See (2). It's a worthwile investment considering what's at stake, don't you think?

7. Yes, it's still a beta technology. There are risks and failure scenarios. Don't invest in Bitcoin if you can't affort to lose it.

8. Bitcoin fulfils some real, practical needs that no other technology fulfils at the moment. Even if the euphoria dies down, there will be a core of users who buy Bitcoin for sober reasons.


Yes, all of these are factored into the price, as well as future expectations of all of these.
newbie
Activity: 9
Merit: 0
9. Intel releases a quantum CPU in Q4 2011.
hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 500
WHAT IF THE WORLD BLOWS UP!!!! Sad

+1.   Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
WHAT IF THE WORLD BLOWS UP!!!! Sad
hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 500
1. If you trade in bitcoins you still have to find a buyer of them if you want a pizza.  Thus you will have to use a service to exchange your money to dollars on their terms.  If you drive to a bitcoin meet-up you are still wasting gas to do the exchange.  You will have a middleman more often.
As BitterTea mentioned, this is just a problem for the early adopters. The problem goes away the more vendors start accepting bitcoins directly. I don't think the bitcoin system was ever meant to operate with a middleman forever!

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2. There is a risk of lost, stolen, or disk failure wallets.  Yes you can lose your wallet in real life, but you usually find it under the bed. 
Encryption, backing up, etc. Put a copy on a flash drive, then you can find it under your bed right next to your leather one. There's also the option of using a bank, which I'm sure will become a much more attractive option the more time our current banks have to mature and new banks have to pop up. Heck, I've already begun the testing stages of a community bank of my own that bests MyBitcoin and Instant Wallet in certain regards (though, admittedly not others.)

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3. Shops are slow in adjusting prices, if the price rises and their store might have prices that are 2 months old and they seem expensive.   What if prices crash 90% will the shop honor the price?  I doubt it they buy all their materials in USD, CAD, RUB, or EUD.
Yeah. We sure could use a service that automatically adjusts a person's prices for them based on the Mt. Gox exchange rate. (I'm pretty sure MyBitcoin's shopping cart interface does exactly that.)

I feel like this would be more of a problem for places like Bidding Pond. On the other hand, Bidding Pond could act as a price stabilizer of sorts if it gets big enough. After all, if prices keep fluctuating too much either the fluctuation will have to go or those lengthy auctions will.

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4. There is no record of exchange.  What if you buy a car and you go to pick it up and there is no car or address?  You are out 10,000 BTC.  If you buy something over the internet even for 1 BTC, if they don't send it you are out of luck.
BitterTea covered this one pretty well.

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5. The churning of your hard-drive is already annoying to run the bitcoin client.  If the economy gets 10x bigger that churning is going to be 10x bigger.  Are there any stats to Mb per day you waste on hard disk space?  What about bandwidth?
Ultra-lightweight and light-weight clients. Also, banks. Your hard drive does absolutely no churning when there's a bank churning for you!

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6. In the end you might have to end up using a bitcoin bank anyways where you store your bitcoins to take the risk out of lost wallets.  Then you run the risk that the goldsmiths, take your money and spend it loans and blow.
Okay, what BitterTea said, plus: I'm starting a community run bank! It's called Bitcoin Pouch! Right now it's only running on testnet so people can play around with it using fake bitcoins and not have to worry about losing them, but once it's in production I intend to run it under a system of communal governance and accountability. Haven't decided on a model yet. Thinking about having audits every once in a while to prove all the bitcoins are still there. Maybe an annual Run on the Bank event, where everyone withdraws their bitcoins all at once? Seriously, if you insist on complete openness, there's no reason banksters ever need arise again. They'll try, but hey: vigilance and freedom are positively correlated. Wink

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7. There is always the risk of someone destroying the network or finding a flaw and taking the system down.  Since BTC could be used for money laundering, it might be a big goal of the governments of the world to take it down.
Yup. That might hurt the price. Then again it might help it. No telling what actions might be taken and what effect those actions might have. But one thing I do know: taking down the Bitcoin Network (the Bitnet?) will be about as hard as taking down the Internet or, if we're feeling a little less grandiose, BitTorrent.

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8. What if people stopped mining BTC, or the euphoria of a deflationary currency would people lose interest in it?
Yeah. If everyone in the Bitcoin Community were to give the currency a vote of no confidence and walk away for good, THAT would kill bitcoins dead. Okay, do you know what that means? We have created the first truly free and democratic system of currency ever. So... if you were to tell me you think every person in the community is capable of simply walking away from this, well, I'd kinda look at you funny and say I disagreed. Because really, it wouldn't just take the miners giving up. If the miners give up, then the difficulty plunges and we're back to where CPU mining is profitable. The folks who still believe in it will keep that going as best they can. Everyone would have to leave. Or perhaps everyone but two, since a currency needs three people using it to be useful.

This is not a very likely scenario. But hey, maybe that's just me and BitterTea.

full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
Aren't full blocks required to assure the system of bitcoin stays up. How much disk space does a block take up now?

See #7 in the bitcoin.pdf.
hero member
Activity: 717
Merit: 501
I agree, this can be annoying. There are two types of clients that exist in theory but not practice. The first is the light weight client, which only downloads block headers. This would be a big improvement over the standard clients, which has to store full blocks. There is also the ultra-lightweight client which would need to store even less information, but would require some method of receiving data outside the normal Bitcoin channels.

Aren't full blocks required to assure the system of bitcoin stays up. How much disk space does a block take up now?
sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 252

2. There is a risk of lost, stolen, or disk failure wallets.  Yes you can lose your wallet in real life, but you usually find it under the bed. 

Common practice if you have a large amount of coins should be having one wallet with most of your savings, while having a separate spending wallet, or similar setup. Encrypting and backing up would be just as safe as a bank account, especially if you put it in a safety deposit box. Is encrypting and backing up your wallet harder than the first time you learn about banking? I'd make an argument that it's even safer and easier than trying to teach a kid how to open a checking/savings account.
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