Topic: Disappearing solo miners - page 2. (Read 4289 times)
i think tukotih refers to the security issues that a pool with >50% capacity could have to BTC, not that he doesn't agree with bitcoin spirit
If a pool grows over 50% we should DDoS the shit out of it.
It's basically our only weapon...
It's basically our only weapon...
That's against the spirit of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is a capitalist market.
He who holds the most riches has the best chance at profit.
He who has the most power has the best chance at profit.
If a pool grows over 50% we should DDoS the shit out of it.
It's basically our only weapon...
It's basically our only weapon...
Raulo very often posts great analytics. This is just another example. Thanks.
It's too bad this post is mostly buried. You're exactly right. It's starting to look like the entire network is going to be mining pools before too long and there is currently a VERY high incentive to be in the biggest mining pool, but also a VERY high incentive to not let that pool pass 50% hashrate. Which means we've basically got a PRECARIOUS PRECIPICE problem.
We don't have an incentive to leave the best mining pool unless it is over 50% of the hashrate, and the best ones start off free or nearly free. If someone who owned both a significant amount (tens of thousands in $X) of BTC and a large enough mining pool that was misreporting its hash rate had the inclination, they could offer to pay us more BTC out than the other mining pools, even going so far as to intentionally inflate the network then use double-spends to pay out to those of us mining with them more than they could have legitimately mined, and they could do this for $X/50 blocks worth of time. I kind of doubt the people who did the mining are going to accept that they have to willingly lose BTC.
We don't have an incentive to leave the best mining pool unless it is over 50% of the hashrate, and the best ones start off free or nearly free. If someone who owned both a significant amount (tens of thousands in $X) of BTC and a large enough mining pool that was misreporting its hash rate had the inclination, they could offer to pay us more BTC out than the other mining pools, even going so far as to intentionally inflate the network then use double-spends to pay out to those of us mining with them more than they could have legitimately mined, and they could do this for $X/50 blocks worth of time. I kind of doubt the people who did the mining are going to accept that they have to willingly lose BTC.
If one looks at the bitcoinwatch pie chart, the "other" part of the pie shrank significantly. Since this calculation from reported hashes and global hashrate is rather inaccurate (e.g., due to changing speed between pools and a "luck factor"), I counted blocks solved by pools during 24 h starting 30 May 20:00 UT.
The whole Bitcoin network found 142 blocks. Individual pools:
deepbit: 55 blocks
slush: 22 blocks
btcmine: 18 blocks
btcguild: 12 blocks
eligius: 5 blocks
swepool: 2 blocks
bitcoins.lc: 0 blocks (unlucky day apparently)
total: 114
other miners and smaller pools: 28 blocks = 20%
I do not have some hard data but I think this is an all time low.
What we can guess from this statistics? Well, apparently with current difficulty the variance with mining solo is rather brutal for small miners. Even a few high-end rigs may be not enough to find a block in a week. And it seems people are rather risk averse. I find it interesting that a lot of people spend quite a lot of money on gambling and unfair lotteries (unfair=with payoff to winners less than ticket revenue). Yet Bitcoin, which is a fair lottery (and better than fair, with extra fees in the blocks), has so few players that want to take the risk.
Also, it seems that a notion that mining is rather concentrated is not true. Large miners prefer mining solo (we do not have stats for all pools but for those that publish statistics, largest miners are in teens GH/s max). Those big solo miners are apparently at best 20% of the global hashrate and likely less since there are definitely some hard-core solo miners with small hash rates. Therefore, mining income is rather widely distributed. I think it is rather good for wide adaption of Bitcoin. It is also good for safety and robustness of the network (even though it is concentrated in pools). Recent dynamics is for concentration of mining in pools. If it reverses, this may be a signal of a start of mining concentration.
The whole Bitcoin network found 142 blocks. Individual pools:
deepbit: 55 blocks
slush: 22 blocks
btcmine: 18 blocks
btcguild: 12 blocks
eligius: 5 blocks
swepool: 2 blocks
bitcoins.lc: 0 blocks (unlucky day apparently)
total: 114
other miners and smaller pools: 28 blocks = 20%
I do not have some hard data but I think this is an all time low.
What we can guess from this statistics? Well, apparently with current difficulty the variance with mining solo is rather brutal for small miners. Even a few high-end rigs may be not enough to find a block in a week. And it seems people are rather risk averse. I find it interesting that a lot of people spend quite a lot of money on gambling and unfair lotteries (unfair=with payoff to winners less than ticket revenue). Yet Bitcoin, which is a fair lottery (and better than fair, with extra fees in the blocks), has so few players that want to take the risk.
Also, it seems that a notion that mining is rather concentrated is not true. Large miners prefer mining solo (we do not have stats for all pools but for those that publish statistics, largest miners are in teens GH/s max). Those big solo miners are apparently at best 20% of the global hashrate and likely less since there are definitely some hard-core solo miners with small hash rates. Therefore, mining income is rather widely distributed. I think it is rather good for wide adaption of Bitcoin. It is also good for safety and robustness of the network (even though it is concentrated in pools). Recent dynamics is for concentration of mining in pools. If it reverses, this may be a signal of a start of mining concentration.
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