Who, how and why defines (and guards) the consensus rules?
It is the community built around the currency, on the assumption that the community is mostly united.
The best solution to irreconcilable differences is to hard-fork and then have 2 currencies. The problem is that everyone wants their side to be "Bitcoin".
Bitcoin core (clearly) feels that hard forking does not represent the community consensus and they are acting accordingly.
On a purely technical basis, the change is reasonable. Given that the hard fork counts as a creating a different chain, they need to protect their userbase.
If they didn't make the change, then until the forking date, the 2 networks would be mixed.
Segwit2X clients and Core clients would connect to each and be completely compatible with each other.
When the fork happens, they are suddenly incompatible.
Assuming 50% for each chain, then a Core node which has 8 connections has a 1 in 256 chance of only connecting to SW2X nodes. Even if it does have a connection to a non-SW2X node, they might be an isolated "island" of nodes and have no connection to miners.
If that happens, it will suddenly be isolated and won't be able to get updates from the non-hard fork chain.
It won't even know that its peers have a problem instantly. It has to wait until they start sending SW2X transactions ... but those are actually compatible with core.
So, it actually has to wait until it gets forwarded a big block. When that happens, it will ban that one peer and then go searching for a new connection. That has a 50% chance of connecting to a SW2X node, and so it is still disconnected from the non-forking chain.
By having 0.15.0 refuse to connect to SW2 nodes, it creates a core of nodes that follow the non-hard fork rules. This gives at least a "backbone" of connectivity that keeps the network together.
It also gives slots for people who lose all their 8 connections to connect to.
The recommendation will probably be that non-forking miners all run 0.15.0 (or at least update their nodes to reject SW2X nodes).
So what this system is supposed to do when there is a disagreement between miners, and non-miners?
The miners ONLY decide transaction ordering. If 95% of the miners go on one chain but 95% of users go on the other, then the users "win".
The normal term for this is "economic majority", but getting users to coordinate is hard. You might be able to get all the exchanges and payment processors to coordinate if the miners went crazy.
Miners would have to be stupid to go into a hard fork, just to change the block size, only to earn less money at the end.
Plus: very likely depressing the price of bitcoin by hard forking...
Well that is the $50 billion question. A bigger block means more transactions. If the transactions double but the fees drop by 25%, then you are still better off. If the fees drop by 90% when the transactions double, then you end up with less.