Topic: Discussing Bitcoin's future, and increasing its total supply (Read 2313 times)

Note that this also means that even if at some point in the future ALL bitcoins (I mean truly 100%) are destroyed, it is STILL not a problem cause new bitcoins are always being mined. Even if it's only fractions of bitcoins, that's still enough by definition, as explained above (i.e. by simply using yoctocoins).

not sure if trolling...

There probably will be too many people to physically fit on the surface of the planet before the decimal places become an issue.

If we ever get to that "singularity" I guess people will have to sell 2 hoverboards for 1 hepto-zepto-hemi-demi-BTC instead of just one hoverboard and just take the hit... I'm sure their hoverboard business will stay afloat (aloft?) though...

Do you read any of that.  It is just numbers.  You act like 0.0000004 BTC (0.4 uBTC) is a small amount.  0.4 uBTC (micro Bitcoin) is 400,000,000,000 aBTC (atto Bitcoins) or 400,000,000,000,000,000 yBTC (yoctoBitcoin).  Look at all those zeros.  Using 128 bit numbers for value it is possible to go way beyond that, 32 decimal places which means that same 0.4 uBTC can be used for 40,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 discrete, assignable, tradable units.  Who will I trade them with?  How about every single human on the planet even assuming the population increases from 8 billion to 80 billion.

Of course that even assumes the asininely improbable scenario where 20,999,999.99999996 BTC are lost will ever happen.  BTW that is 99.999999999999809523809523809524% of the coins being lost).  Somehow in 6,000 or so years we have managed NOT to lose 99.999999999999809523809523809524% of the available gold or 99.999999999999809523809523809524% of the available silver or 99.999999999999809523809523809524% of pretty much ANYTHING.  Hell we haven't even burnt up 99.999999999999809523809523809524% of the available oil, coal, natural gas, or uranium.  Unlike currency which merely trades hands being consumed (potentially an infinite number of times) those materials are are actually consumed in use and we still haven't "lost/used" that high of a percentage of it.

Still if it happens to Bitcoin ... it STILL isn't a problem.  There may be a lot of potential issues with Bitcoin but running out is not one of them.

You're asking who I'll pay and accept payment from when the total bitcoins in circulation are 400,000,000,000 attobitcoins (or 200,000,000,000 attobitcoins)?

Obviously with all the people who are holding attobitcoins.  How is this even a question?

That's just silly. It doesn't even make sense.  Why don't I have you on ignore yet?

I have considered and modeled all of these factors. It does not matter how long it takes, it is a certainty with the current Bitcoin model.

Other factors include population growth vs total number of coins, hold vs spend, a realistic percentage of accidental wallet loss or theft, rarity vs scarcity, supply vs demand etc.

When there are say 0.0000004 and 0.0000002 Bitcoins left who are you going to trade them with exactly ?

You seem to forget that Bitcoin's unlike your foolish oil analogy aren't used up and money unlike oil or other commodities is merely an accounting system.  Bitcoin works equally well with 21M active Bitcoins, 2.1M active Bitcoins, or 2 active Bitcoins.

The protocol allows perfect divisibility (something not possible with commodity money).  Currently that is limited to 8 decimal place providing 2.1 quadrillion discrete assignable units.  BTW that is roughly 4x as much as the global currency supply (~$5T) when counted in pennies (500T units).   

If that ever is not enough increased divisibility is possible.  The ptotocol stores values in a uint64 field which can handle integers up 18,446 quadrillion.
Just updating how the protocol records values without increasing the size of the field would allow us to increase divisibility to the 12th decimal place (a 10,000x fold increase).

If that isn't enough a more significant change would be moving to 128 bit integers which would allow divisibility to the 31st decimal place. If there was only 1 Bitcoin left with 31 decimal places it would provide for 16,203,922,234,330,403 quadrillion discrete units.  Enough for every man, woman and child on the planet to have more than 2 million a piece.

It is a complete and utter non-issue.

Indeed. Thank you.

Yes and No. Bitcoins do become more valuable over time (in theory), until all 21 Million Bitcoins are in cirulation. Then rarity will cause them to become even more valuable, until scarcity causes inevitable decline.

You can't trade in diminishing intangibility. Fact. Which is currently inevitable and certain.

Definition of SCARCE. 1: deficient in quantity or number compared with the demand : not plentiful or abundant.

https://wikipedia.org/wiki/Scarcity

https://wikipedia.org/wiki/Intangibility

We have a long way to go. If Bitcoin is like a roller coaster, the we only just dropped of the first incline!   Maybe a loop-the-loop is approaching ?  

Wow, dude that is one profound statement. So Bitcoins can basically only get indefinitely more valuable over time. Great point. Changing my poll answer. I didn't realize that indefinite inflation was something Bitcoin was made to actually avoid. Very good discussion.

Please understand that I'm looking very far into the future. I'm a big crypto-currency supporter and I love Bitcoin! Here is my post...

How, Why and When the Bitcoin Model will Fail - https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/how-why-and-when-the-bitcoin-model-will-fail-172664

The current Bitcoin model is a fixed and finite commodity and someday their will be no Bitcoins left.

As I've stated elsewhere, when the oil eventually runs out are you still going to be putting gasoline into your car ?

They will mine for the transaction fees.  Long before the end of the block subsidy, the transaction fees will become the main source of income for miners.


They won't "run out".  The existing bitcoins will remain in circulation and will be used for products, services, and transaction fees.


Unknown, but unlikely to have any significant value.


No.


You are attempting to predict miners incentive based off of today's transaction volume.  If bitcoin doesn't fail in the next few decades, the transaction volume will increase and the income from transaction fees will therefore increase as well.  Eventually the revenue from fees will exceed the revenue from the subsidy.  There will likely be third-party transaction processors that will exist eventually as well.  These payment processors will be able to spread out the blockchain transaction costs across many smaller off-chain transactions.


No thanks.


Confirmations don't typically take an hour.  Most people will find that it is sufficient to wait for just one or two confirmations for high-risk transactions.  Low rick transactions will be accepted with 0 confirmations.  Third-party transaction processors will be able to guarantee payment with 0 confirmations as well.

It won't become more valuable at that stage, if it's the only type of money out there. It would get more valuable if you measured the value with a currency that was still inflating, and that's the assumption you're making. It brings into question what "valuable currency" actually means. It's difficult to put any kind of real, believable price on things using a money supply you know nothing about, even a money supply where you don't know the whole story (which is the situation the fiat currencies are in, we don't really know all the secret bank accounts out there, we just know that it's impossible to tell that there are no more than we are already aware of, because... they're secret to the extent that there can be zero evidence they exist until the money is used)

Nothing will happen because bitcoins won't "run out".

Bitcoins (unlike FIAT currrencies) are divisible to 8 decimal places.

In the future, as more people take up bitcoin, each one is worth more, and people will start trading in smaller units.

The whole point of bitcoin was that it was *not* inflationary i.e. unlike traditional FIAT currencies where governments just print more when they get in trouble.

Transaction fees will grow as transactions grow in volume.

Bitcoin is divisible into smaller and smaller units.

You bring up a very good point. Bitcoin's rarity is tied directly into value. And this discussion isnt exactly directed at changing Bitcoin now. It's geared to what we will end up doing around 2138 lol. But what will happen when all of the Bitcoins are out? Will we just move to a brand new currency or continue with the diminishing supply, making it more and more valuable?

There is currently only one correct answer to this question that was not included...

Supply Will Not Increase And It Will Be Beneficial and Damaging.

Beneficial

One of the reasons Bitcoins have any value whatsoever is because Bitcoins are a finite commodity.

Damaging

When all Bitcoins are in circulation (and no more can be created), eventually their won't be any left. This is further compounded by ones inability to trade in what I will call ever decreasing or diminishing intangibility.

Don't worry. The train has only just left the station! The bitcoin model has many many good years to run 'as is', well after the 2140 estimate and the value should sky rocket before and after that time, followed by theoretical and certain decline of the current model. Besides, something else will probably be in Bitcoins place within that time frame or the current model will adapt beyond recognition with code changes to accommodate these factors, if we get that far.

There is no reason whatsoever to increase the amount of coins, we have LTC, and maybe another successful alt will step up.

Why would anyone want to increase the supply and ruin the main feature of Bitcoin? People want Bitcoins because they are worth $100. Increase the supply and no one will want them.

Not sure what will happen then but Other coins like Litecoin and Feathercoin both have more total coins that can be mined.