Topic: [Discussion] Bitcoin Spot ETFs (Read 729 times)

Interesting events today.

SEC tweeted that Bitcoin Sport ETFs had been approved



There was a Bitcoin price shake up after the announcement, only for them to announce a few moments later that the account had been compromised  
I smell a rat. I think this was a pre-planned market manipulation tactic that they are just going to blame on a “hack”.

And now they will self investigate that “hack”  

I don't think anything has changed from the position we were some months ago, the majority of people still believe that a spot etf approval is just a matter of when and not if, so except a final decision is given against that, the believe remains that an approval is on its way. But i have also read a few different opinions lately, people who think it would be rejected like it has happened in the past and that all these optimism of an approval is just manipulation, soon we will find out which is true.

Everything is pointing towards positivity. If it was going to be the other way round, the evidence would have been enormous as well. Even other countries of the world are giving bitcoin a chance by eliminating some barriers on bitcoin before now. This is the long awaited time, and the timing is perfect with the bull run on sight. We should just prepare for the massive regulations that will accompany this development.

Giving this one last bump before sharing the SEC's decision which should come in 2-3 days from now. Everyone seems to be very optimistic about multiple approvals, and I understand why with all of the amendments to the filings we've been seeing the last few days, ETF commercials, etc.. but I'm still a bit skeptical. Thoughts on this? and do you think this is just going to be another "buy the rumor, sell the news event" (short term)?

I cannot really predict what is going to happen, but soon enough we'll experience it, because according to the op the final deadline for the applications are coming fast, and in the first three months of 2024, we would know if one or more of these applications will be accepted or if all of them would be rejected. The SEC met with Fidelity to discuss their spot etf proposal, and last month they also met with Grayscale and BlackRock, and i know that this has added to the speculations but there is nothing definitive yet.

It been some time since I last updated this, so here is everything that happened last week:

- VanEck updated its ETF filing and is now using HODL as its ticker.
- Both BlackRock and Bitwise have filed for an update
- SEC Issues “Crypto Investing” Caution, Positive Bitcoin ETF Signal Ahead?
- Fidelity has met with the SEC to discuss their Spot ETF.

As we're approaching the next deadline (Mid-January) do you think any of this is a sign that a Spot ETF will be approved soon?

Some new updates in the last 24 hours:

- Grayscale files for an S-3[1]
- Fidelity files an amendment[2] to its Spot ETF
- Blackrock also updated its ETF filing[3]

[1] https://cointelegraph.com/news/grayscale-new-spot-bitcoin-etf-nyse
[2] https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2023/10/18/bitcoin-nears-29k-as-fidelity-etf-amendment-bumps-bullish-sentiment/
[3] https://decrypt.co/202385/blackrock-amends-bitcoin-etf-acknowledges-fierce-competition

You're right. I deleted the post now. Apparently, that was false and some journalist from Fox has confirmed that with BlackRock[1].

We can already see how the price is starting to go back to what it was. It's crazy how many crypto sites have already written about it without confirming anything.

[1] https://twitter.com/EleanorTerrett/status/1713913109272809602

Seems early and unexpected. No other sources confirming this though other than Cointelegraph tweet https://twitter.com/Cointelegraph/status/1713908025520538079. This is probably a wrong/fake news.

So it looks like the SEC has decided[1] to not appeal the court's decision regarding Grayscale's conversion of the Futures ETF to a Spot ETF[2]. So now, there is a lot of speculation that we might get to see the first bitcoin ETF approved (Ark Invest) by the 10th of January. Thoughts?

[1] https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-sec-does-not-plan-appeal-court-decision-grayscale-bitcoin-etf-source-2023-10-13/
[2] https://blockworks.co/news/grayscale-sec-spot-bitcoin-etf

They have also delayed[1][2] the decision for the rest of ETFs listed on the OP: BlackRock, Invesco, Valkyrie, Bitwise, WisdomTree, Fidelity, and VanEck.

Also, Franklin Templeton has filed a 19b-4 for its spot Bitcoin ETF[3].

[1] https://decrypt.co/199305/sec-punts-four-spot-bitcoin-etf-filing-ahead-government-shutdown
[2] https://www.cryptowisser.com/news/us-sec-delays-its-decision-on-fidelity-vaneck-and-wisdomtree-bitcoin-etf-applications/
[3] https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/breaking-franklin-templeton-files-a-19b-4-for-its-spot-bitcoin-etf-application-202309261945

The SEC has also extended its decision time for another Bitcoin ETF that is not mentioned in the table in OP. It's from Global X. They had until 7 October 2023 to either accept or reject it, but they extended their decision for another 45 days.

That does not seem to be a problem. In my opinion, the current situation in the US economy needs to improve and the IRS should start lowering the interest rate before a spot ETF can provide a large volume of institutional liquidity to the crypto market. Until then, spot ETFs are definitely not a game changer.

Update: ARKs spot ETF has been delayed[1] by the SEC until January next year (the deadline was previously set to November 11th).

[1] https://www.sec.gov/files/rules/sro/cboebzx/2023/34-98530.pdf
[2] https://cointelegraph.com/news/sec-pushes-deadline-ark-21shares-spot-bitcoin-etf

What I meant by "ignoring," he'll delay things and file appeals, just like he did in the case against Ripple. The SEC lost in court, but did not agree with the verdict and planned to file an appeal.
After losing the Grayscale case on Aug 29,  the SEC still did not approve any ETFs in September. They also have 45 days to file an appeal so that would make something like Oct 14 the deadline for that and that's almost exactly the date of their second ETF deadline.
Coindesk cited Gabriel Shapiro from Delphi Labs who said: "Every time they lose in court they just shamelessly say the judge got it wrong and pursue more shenanigans."

I predict that Gensler will file an appeal in the Grayscale case and if he loses that, he'll attack the futures to buy time because the whole case is based on the fact that the SEC allowed futures and doesn't want to allow spot citing market manipulation, but it's the same spot price that decides the price of both futures and spot ETFs. I don't think that after so many years he'll be able to cancel futures ETF, as this would open the SEC to a lot of civil cases, but if Gensler finds out he'll be forced to vacate the chair in a few months, he could make that last suicidal attempt and cancel futures for a while and delay spot ETF this way.

Why is Gensler doing this if there are no arguments?
You can answer this by watching the latest interview with him (I think it was by Bloomberg).
He doesn't even directly answer the question when asked about ETFs. He talks about crypto and how many people were hurt by altcoin scams and how they want to protect people, but the question was about bitcoin. The same bitcoin the SEC called a commodity.

There's an interview with Mike Belshe from BitGo who said the SEC's decisions about bitcoin are political and have nothing to do with existing laws. They interpret the laws however they want and he mentions senator Elizabeth Warren who is probably pulling the strings.
You could say she's attacking bitcoin because it's used for giving bribes and laundering money, but you don't need bitcoin for that and her colleague from the same party can tell us a thing or two about that.
https://decrypt.co/198398/bitcoin-critic-senator-menendez-corruption-bribery

"I don't like crypto because it's dirty money, but if you want something done, I'll gladly take some cash." -Robert Menendez

I would not agree that anyone (not even Gensler) can ignore the decisions of the courts, because the courts exist so that people can fight for their rights if they feel that they are threatened or violated.

However, I agree that the man behaves a bit strangely considering the interest he is opposing, and we know that money in that country is something that gives power, and all those companies that want something from him have more than $15 trillion under management, and if he doesn't come to his senses, I have no doubt that they will find a way to remove him from the position he is in now.

As for the election, I think that everything is possible, although I think that Biden simply should not be in that position due to his health condition, and if Trump were to be re-elected, I don't think that the SEC policy would change much considering that Trump is nearing the end of his mandate had some very aggressive ideas when it came to cryptocurrencies. Considering the views of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. when it comes to Bitcoin, it seems that he would be the best choice, although we all know that politicians talk one thing before the election, and when they are elected, they do something completely different.

^
Gensler doesn't care much about court rulings and he even said it in his recent bloomberg interview. He isn't going to respect court decisions when it comes to crypto!

I hope that you're right about this and ETFs pass this year, or in Spring of next year, but the way I see it, Gensler is going to fight it until they remove it from the chair and that opportunity will come next year if Biden loses. In such case whoever comes next will remove Gensler, which is why I said that ETFs are going to get approved by the end of 2024.

It's going to be a miracle if he approves anything next month. You'd have to threaten him or otherwise put his back against the wall to achieve such outcome.

He can be stubborn as much as he wants, but he still has to admit that some things have changed, and that is first of all the fact that the biggest of the biggest got involved in the race (BlackRock), and that Grayscale managed to win in court and that any further delay than what is allowed by law will not end well for the SEC.

Therefore, I believe that the preconditions have been created for such an ETF to finally be approved, and for it to be in March of next year at the latest - which again perfectly coincides with the next halving and could result in a big bull run in the months after that.

Because of the final deadlines that are in March 2024.

The SEC is known for delaying things and I feel like Gensler is a stubborn donkey that's going to stand on the ramparts until he gets wounded and taken away or gets relieved by a superior officer.
He wants to show the world he doesn't agree with the idea of a bitcoin ETF by voting against it for as long as he can.

I'm saying this because it's literally the same market it was a year ago and the applicants want the same thing. Gensler had enough time to get to know this market and he was against in 2021, 2022 and again delayed things in September of this year (first deadline).

Why do you think that we will have to wait until the end of next year when there is enough time for the SEC to make a positive decision, perhaps even before the end of this year? Except for Ark, which has a deadline of January 10, 2024, all other companies will receive an answer no later than March 16, 2024, and if even then the answer is negative, all these companies in question should submit new requests very quickly, because the SEC can make its decision to be extended to a maximum of 240 days, which would mean that the ETF would not be possible even next year.