what is this evidence of? i've never seen anyone using a bitcoin ATM. and hardly anyone spends bitcoins at merchants, especially brick-and-mortar merchants. bitcoin is clearly a speculative asset first and foremost. i know chinese traders and they don't give a fuck about bitcoin ATMs lol.
I've never seen anyone buying a diamond, thus there are no people buying diamonds.
Then can you explain why the hell do we have 6000 atms? It's businesses wasting money?
how does that prove that ATMs have a significant effect on the market? show us the numbers.
the existence of ATMs in europe or the USA doesn't change the fact that they
never mattered in china.
btw, the chinese government just closed down 173 of crypto exchanges/platforms. so you can give up this charade that bitcoin completely disappeared from china when the government banned exchanges in 2017.
Where have I said that bitcoin disappeared from China?
Don't go that way, don't put words in my mouth, I like strawberries:P
China has as much influence in crypto right now as Nepal.
China means zero, there are no more exchanges there, there are no shops, no ATMs, no real usage, there is only mining and that also slowly dings down.
And furthermore, how can you even claim they have a big influence when they've already banned it?
you did say "there are no more exchanges there". actually there were hundreds before the government shut them down a few days ago. and comparing china to nepal is just ridiculous. i dunno if you just have an incredibly western-centric worldview or what, but that's just
insane.
if you actually knew your history, you'd know the fake volume wars began in 2015. look at any okcoin chart; its clear as day. yet china was the primary driver of the late 2013 bubble. any old school traders here will attest to that.
If you would know your history you would know that the fake volume war started in
2013:
Chinese Bitcoin Exchange OKCoin Accused of Faking Trading DataDec 21, 2013 at 20:10 UTC
pffff, give me a break. at that time, okcoin was doing the same volume as bitstamp. in 2016, they were doing 10 million BTC volume per day. there is no comparison.
one article citing one source who looked at one 2-hour period is also not a basis to suggest (as you are) that all chinese volume in 2013 was fake. some of the top "western" exchanges like bitfinex and binance
have been accused of faking volume too, but that's not a basis to say they have no effect on the market.
anecdotally, i knew dozens of traders in late 2013. nobody even followed gox anymore because we all knew china ran the market. all the moves triggered there (and later on the chinese futures market). by 2015-16 most of us were trading on huobi and okcoin because of the superior liquidity. sure we all joked about the "chopper" and the "volumizer" but at the end of the day, slippage at bitstamp fucked you 10x worse than okcoin. there was undoubtedly lots of real liquidity, more so than any western exchanges.
nothing you're saying proves that chinese speculation isn't a huge part of the market.
Right back at ya!
you're the one claiming china has zero effect on the market. the burden is on you......
i'm trusting tether's blockchain issuance.
Seriously?
that's not an actual argument......
are you suggesting that >4 billion USDT hasn't been issued? that it hasn't grown by 4000% in the last 1.5 years, during a time when chinese traders left mainland exchanges en masse? that 99% of spot trades in china are not using tether?
what
exactly are you rolling your eyes at?
the circulating supply says nothing about their dollar reserves. i'm not commenting on that. but it does corroborate chainalysis' report that USDT has completely replaced the yuan for chinese speculators---which you are conveniently ignoring.
the week before okcoin, btcc, and huobi froze withdrawals, there was 218 BTC in localbitcoins volume. a few weeks later, there was 7300 BTC in localbitcoins volume. more than a 3200% increase, and obviously a direct response to the situation at centralized chinese exchanges.
So, from 25k bitcoin an hour, the amount huobi was claiming to have on the day before.....the response was 1000 Btc a day!
It sounds pretty realistic to me.
i think we've established that the volume numbers were completely inflated by early 2017. (but again, that does nothing to prove your claim that china has zero effect on the market.....)
this is also just localbitcoins, a western site. it offers a
glimpse of the p2p market in china. i've been told that wechat and alipay are much more common venues for p2p trading in china but we have no data for that.