DO NOT BUY GPUs to mine! You will not get your money back! - page 3.

favelle75

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Quote from: mgio on May 15, 2013, 05:18:21 PM

Because when GPU mining becomes unproftable, everyone will dump their used GPUs and you are not going to get 80% of what you paid for them.

Yes....I will. I have been building and selling gaming and office computers for about 6 years now. I will EASILY make 100% of my money back on each and every GPU. And my electricity is 6.7 cents/KWh. My GPU miners are VERY pofitable...thanks.

mgio

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Quote from: favelle75 on May 14, 2013, 01:52:04 AM

Quote from: FloridaBear on May 13, 2013, 10:30:08 PM

Quote from: favelle75 on May 13, 2013, 10:15:51 PM

LOL at OP. I guess we are now assuming that these video cards are going to be worth $0 in 3 months? And the 2-4 games they come with CERTAINLY can't be sold for ~$20 each. /rolleyes.

I acknowledged early on in this thread (I know, TL;DR) that they have resale value. I would argue that you still may not make a profit. You keep laughing and buying them GPUs, but don't say I didn't warn you. Do you seriously expect the hash rate to flatten out going forward after averaging a 17% increase every two weeks over the last 3 months? Roll Eyes

My turn around time for profit, not including selling the free games that come with the cards, and not including the resale of the cards themselves for 80% of their value, AND not including Bitcoin going up in price, is 2.5 months. How can I possibly NOT profit?

Because when GPU mining becomes unproftable, everyone will dump their used GPUs and you are not going to get 80% of what you paid for them.

Second, you don't have 2.5 months. Difficulty will double in the next month or so. Even if you take a very conservative approach and figure it only continues to go up 15% every 2 weeks as it has been, you still won't realize a ROI in anywhere near 2.5 months.

The only chance you can break even is if you sell your GPU now, buy bitcoins instead, and pray for them to go up in value.

With 1200 65GH/s Avalon machines on their way, not including ASICMiner and BFL machines, you are going to be in trouble.

mgio

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Quote from: Schrankwand on May 15, 2013, 04:21:53 AM

Quote from: mgio on May 15, 2013, 01:43:47 AM

Quote from: traderman on May 14, 2013, 01:01:35 PM

Look at all the fortune tellers battling it out. IF you asked someone a few years ago if Bitcoin will go to $250 almost everyone would have said NO. LOL Just keep mining fellas and stop arguing.

Bitcoin isn't at $250 right now. It's not even half that. It wasn't even at 250 for a couple of hours.

Don't mine because you expect bitcoins to go up. Just buy bitcoins instead.

Lets say I buy a 7970 for 400$ now.

It mines at 700mh/s. We have a price of 110 and in one year, Bitcoin goes to 200. Profitability declines by 60% or more.
You have 727 dollars when investing, ~ 1500 after one year of mining and not selling bitcoins.

Your problem is your profitability is going to decline by waaaay more that 60%. More like 98% or so.
You need to take into account:
- The 600 65GH/s Avalon machines that will be shipping in batch 2 any day now
- The 600 65GH/s machines from Avalon batch 3.
- The 200 TH/s that ASICMiner says they will add in the next 2-3 months
- The 60,000 plus Butterfly Labs pre-orders, which should add another 200-300 TH.
- The hundreds of thousands of Avalon discrete 282 MH/s chips that are being sold.

Difficulty will easily be in the hundreds of millions in the next 6 months.

mgio

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Quote from: Schrankwand on May 13, 2013, 08:03:17 PM

Quote from: mgio on May 13, 2013, 06:25:54 PM

I 100% agree with the original poster.

But people seem to want to buy GPUs anyways, so good luck.

I think there is kind of a gold rush mentality presently.

Like the people who are spending $30k+ on pre-order Avalon ASICs. Or block eruptor USBs.

They will never make their money back. Yet they still buy.

Even if you add 400TH/s to the network right now and keep the price like right now, these people WILL make their money back. Unless you decide to enter a huge number of 500GH/s miners, they will.

Do the damn calculations, guys.

Put 50 million, which is adding 4 times the whole network strength, put the timeframe in and see what happens.

How do you figure this?

I'm putting in 50 million for the difficulty, and assuming a GPU that does 750MH/s and costs $300. I put 250W power consumption and the default of 0.15 cents/KWh. I used $115 for the btc rate. Let's see that device will break even... NEVER according to the calculator. You lose money just running it.
Even if your electricity is free, it will still take a year to pay for itself, and in a year the difficulty will be more like 500 million, not 50 million.

philips

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Come on guys, this is the same old story over and over, don't do this, don't do that...for how many threads now since last year?

Take the risk, don't take the risk, whatever.

Better wait until GPU mining IS dead and open a I've told you so thread.

GodHatesFigs

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Quote from: SlyFoxy12 on May 15, 2013, 06:13:40 AM

Quote from: GodHatesFigs on May 15, 2013, 12:59:35 AM

The OP is completely right. Buying GPUs is far too risky now for the vast majority of miners hoping to break even, let alone profit.

All economy is risk, if money was a sure thing we'd all be raking it in, OP makes assumptions and the ASIC market isn't really proven, there's so many uncertainties as the like of BFL haven't got many of their units out so far and people are still gambling on them being stable units, part of me things when it comes to BFL they are serious issues in the stability due to overheating of their products hence the case changes for the smaller models let alone their higher end products.

Of course; it's just that the rewards aren't worth the risk anymore for GPUs.

eroxors

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Think. Positive. Thoughts.

Quote from: roflplatypus on May 14, 2013, 07:47:34 PM

http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/ my two cents

TL/DR but ^this. Also cards have resale value and game codes....

SlyFoxy12

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Quote from: GodHatesFigs on May 15, 2013, 12:59:35 AM

The OP is completely right. Buying GPUs is far too risky now for the vast majority of miners hoping to break even, let alone profit.

All economy is risk, if money was a sure thing we'd all be raking it in, OP makes assumptions and the ASIC market isn't really proven, there's so many uncertainties as the like of BFL haven't got many of their units out so far and people are still gambling on them being stable units, part of me things when it comes to BFL they are serious issues in the stability due to overheating of their products hence the case changes for the smaller models let alone their higher end products.

Schrankwand

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Quote from: mgio on May 15, 2013, 01:43:47 AM

Quote from: traderman on May 14, 2013, 01:01:35 PM

Look at all the fortune tellers battling it out. IF you asked someone a few years ago if Bitcoin will go to $250 almost everyone would have said NO. LOL Just keep mining fellas and stop arguing.

Bitcoin isn't at $250 right now. It's not even half that. It wasn't even at 250 for a couple of hours.

Don't mine because you expect bitcoins to go up. Just buy bitcoins instead.

Lets say I buy a 7970 for 400$ now.

It mines at 700mh/s. We have a price of 110 and in one year, Bitcoin goes to 200. Profitability declines by 60% or more.
You have 727 dollars when investing, ~ 1500 after one year of mining and not selling bitcoins.

mgio

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Quote from: traderman on May 14, 2013, 01:01:35 PM

Look at all the fortune tellers battling it out. IF you asked someone a few years ago if Bitcoin will go to $250 almost everyone would have said NO. LOL Just keep mining fellas and stop arguing.

Bitcoin isn't at $250 right now. It's not even half that. It wasn't even at 250 for a couple of hours.

Don't mine because you expect bitcoins to go up. Just buy bitcoins instead.

GodHatesFigs

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The OP is completely right. Buying GPUs is far too risky now for the vast majority of miners hoping to break even, let alone profit.

philips

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Quote from: MinerLT on May 14, 2013, 03:10:50 PM

Quote from: traderman on May 14, 2013, 01:01:35 PM

Look at all the fortune tellers battling it out. IF you asked someone a few years ago if Bitcoin will go to $250 almost everyone would have said NO. LOL Just keep mining fellas and stop arguing.

When btc price per block was 50BTC, remember ? Last days to 25BTC per block and everyone was in panic that mining will be unprofitable. My biggest mistake was that i don't buy cards then..
Just keep mining.

Yep, I remember. I even shutdown the rigs and refused an occasion I had to buy cheap two 7970. Arghhh...
There were similar threads back then, backed up with figures and assumptions, GPU mining is dead !

Well, it will be...probably...eventually...and most likely buying a bunch of 10 cards right now is not the smartest move.
But hey, I just bought another 7970

roflplatypus

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http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/ my two cents

buddrulez

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If you use your gpu's for gaming and make a bit of coin on the side then its ok. But buying them just for mining is kind of pointless at the moment!

MinerLT

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Quote from: traderman on May 14, 2013, 01:01:35 PM

Look at all the fortune tellers battling it out. IF you asked someone a few years ago if Bitcoin will go to $250 almost everyone would have said NO. LOL Just keep mining fellas and stop arguing.

When btc price per block was 50BTC, remember ? Last days to 25BTC per block and everyone was in panic that mining will be unprofitable. My biggest mistake was that i don't buy cards then..
Just keep mining.

coincepts

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Quote from: traderman on May 14, 2013, 01:01:35 PM

Look at all the fortune tellers battling it out. IF you asked someone a few years ago if Bitcoin will go to $250 almost everyone would have said NO. LOL Just keep mining fellas and stop arguing.

QFE +1

traderman

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Look at all the fortune tellers battling it out. IF you asked someone a few years ago if Bitcoin will go to $250 almost everyone would have said NO. LOL Just keep mining fellas and stop arguing.

abbyd

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Quote from: coincepts on May 14, 2013, 12:19:28 PM

Quote from: abbyd on May 14, 2013, 11:30:20 AM

Some strong opinions on this topic. Stay cool - ultimately this is just a math problem with lots of variables. The next step is to estimate the probabilities of changes in each variable, then write a grand formula...

OK people has anyone considered how much money the VIDEO CARD INDUSTRY is putting into buying cryptocoins?
I know that if 20% of my sales of high end OpenCL cards were to miners, I'd spend 20+% of my profits ensuring that their value didn't crash...

I'd like to see breakdown stats of video card utilization: gaming, cryptocoin, decryption, etc... anyone?

Interesting to think about AMD investing in crypto. Good point.

I think the OP just doesn't mine like the % of us who are ear to the ground, ready to pack up and move to the next big thing before its big, etc. Mining is about risk. We are all prospectors afterall are we not?

OP might be FUDing, but he seems somewhat earnest, also he cites an interesting report on pool mining yields.

Given how huge they are, I don't think AMD is giving that much thought to cryptocoins, but from a strictly business
perspective it would make sense to subsidize the sector. Of course, they just make the chipsets, and then a manufacturer
builds the actual cards. If these manufacturers are smart, they'll do stuff like incentivize bulk purchases, include better stock
cooling solutions, etc.

coincepts

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Quote from: abbyd on May 14, 2013, 11:30:20 AM

Some strong opinions on this topic. Stay cool - ultimately this is just a math problem with lots of variables. The next step is to estimate the probabilities of changes in each variable, then write a grand formula...

OK people has anyone considered how much money the VIDEO CARD INDUSTRY is putting into buying cryptocoins?
I know that if 20% of my sales of high end OpenCL cards were to miners, I'd spend 20+% of my profits ensuring that their value didn't crash...

I'd like to see breakdown stats of video card utilization: gaming, cryptocoin, decryption, etc... anyone?

Interesting to think about AMD investing in crypto. Good point.

I think the OP just doesn't mine like the % of us who are ear to the ground, ready to pack up and move to the next big thing before its big, etc. Mining is about risk. We are all prospectors afterall are we not?

abbyd

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Some strong opinions on this topic. Stay cool - ultimately this is just a math problem with lots of variables. The next step is to estimate the probabilities of changes in each variable, then write a grand formula...

OK people has anyone considered how much money the VIDEO CARD INDUSTRY is putting into buying cryptocoins?
I know that if 20% of my sales of high end OpenCL cards were to miners, I'd spend 20+% of my profits ensuring that their value didn't crash...

I'd like to see breakdown stats of video card utilization: gaming, cryptocoin, decryption, etc... anyone?

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