Topic: Do you guys remember the poll about if bitcoin will be 10 000usd this year? (Read 2732 times)

Um, it's been at triple (and briefly quadruple) digit prices for a half a year now. Double digits are the unrealistic pipe dream.


I guess that depends on where you are.

There is absolutely no point for me that bitcoin have triple-digit value for a few weeks. Why? Because you can't do anything with the money, other than going back to banks (which I hate more than seeing everything I own going to 0).

On the other hand, if prices are stable, everybody's happy.

This is why I recommend a minimum hold time of 2 years.

Yes, it took over a year and a half to recover from June 2011's bubble, but that followed an extended rally that saw the price go from a penny to over $30 in 8 months, and it was followed by a pair of rallies that saw the price go from $10 over $1000 in less than a year.

Until Bitcoin's adoption curve goes vertical, expect it to generally follow the log scale.

^

lmao 

yea i dont doubt we gonna see atleast $5k in the end of 2014

Last June it was, "no more triple digits in 2013" and, "it has to capitulate down to at $30 before it goes up".

Autumn 2011 it was, "Bitcoin is dead".

Foolish bears.

I take it you haven't been here in 2011-2012.

And MY memory is long enough to remember that bitcoin has gone up 10x every year.  Almost 100x last year.  So despite the current doom and gloom, I still would not be surprised to see $10,000 by the end of the year.

1 to 10 is the exactly same as 1,000 to 10,000

We are still not to mainstream adoption. The next phase imo is institutional investors. Institutional investors will do their research and realize there is no problem with the protocol, what they will see is a floundering company (Mt. Gox) making excuses, and they will still invest. Once institutional investors are in, price skyrocketing and those same institutional investors pushing it to the populace will see us well past 10k/BTC.

Current long term logarithmic trend (from january 2013 to the minimum of SR (30/09/2013) if prolonged for another year bring 5.500 by Ocotber 2014.
This is the bottom of the barrel trend and it is parallel to the main long term trend from the bottom of november 2011 (2.22 $ on Bitstamp) to the current bottom of 510 on Bitstamp.

The main long term trend was a resistance trend before 2013 but was pierced  in April 2013.
The it came down, but settled to an higher (intermediate) trend line between the two.
Then the main trend line was pierced again and now it appear to be a support line and no more a resistance line.



The lower trend line point to 5.500 USD/BTC by October 2014
The higher trend line is something like 3 times higher (around 15-16K USD/BTC).

Apart for the technical analysis, there are more fundamentals analysis bullish for Bitcoin exchange rate:
1) The EU is full of rumors (substantiated) of bank bail-ins and bail-outs. Italy not-performing bank loans are at 25%
2) In the US there are movements to make bank withdraws more difficult (Argentina-light)
3) Interest rates of bank accounts are zero or negative (without including inflation)
4) The M1 inflation of USD, €, Yen, Renmimbi (nearly whatever) are higher than the M1 inflation of BTC of at least 3% (for €) or much more (for $).
5) As the adoption increase the price of BTC will be pushed up naturally and no one will be able to produce more BTC. The same is not true with fiat (no increase adoption and printer happy central bankers).

Point 3 and 4 make holding BTC at 0% interest rate as profitable as holding bonds at 3% (denominated in €) without the counterparty risk in the worst case scenario.
Point 5 make holding BTC much more interesting than holding fiat (that is printed in oblivion by CB).
Points 1 and 2 make holding BTC much more secure than holding fiat at the bank.

First or later some large institutional investors (the smaller of the group, probably) will decide to put some money in BTC to edge against system risks.
Someone will decide to buy BTC as investments instead of Rembrandt or Monet.
All they have? NO
A paltry 1% would make wonder to the bitcoin price.

A single large private actor could, at the current exchange rate, buy 1% of all existing BTC (around 120K BTC) for mere 100 M USD and just this would propel the exchange rate around 1500$.
The Federal Reserve print 2 Billions a day every day (QE). Just if a paltry billion get lost and end buying bitcoin instead of T-bills, it would propel the exchange rate to 5-10K USD.
Just the take-away food industry adoption in Germany alone is a multi-billions year industry. If they start converting from CC and cash to BTC (as appear they are doing) to save and to add security the added demand to hold for BTC would be in the hundred of millions $ range (at least).

I understand that % theory but from 1000 to 10,000 we have 9000 bucks to go. That's a lot, and people don't get raises in %.

Yahoo finance just posted an article about Mt. Gox claiming the bitcoin code had issues. I would think that should be enough to scare anyone away from bitcoins. 

I honestly wonder where the money is going to come from to push bitcoins even past $1000 at this point.

You have to realize that so many people are sitting on huge amounts of bitcoins that they paid close to nothing for. It is hard to imagine that enough buyers will come in to buy even a fraction of these bitcoins from them.

I think the holders will start to cheat a little more and sell some before the other holders sell theirs. This should keep pushing the price down. If I had bitcoins I wouldn't want to be the one left holding the bag.

even if it drops to 100$ this night it is not more or less unlikely than before

no one knows

my feeling is that more and more people get a view on the technology behind bitcoin and see its future potentials.

i know that people hate me for saying this but do you have any idea what a smart (!) regulation for bitcoin in the us will mean for the price of bitcoin 

just see what it is and who is responsible for this mess: mtgox is an entity you had/have to trust, bitcoin runs WITHOUT trust and so will a) the decentralized exchanges in the future or b) the new exchanges will be in a way regulated that their as trustful as possible in finance

It's not that much up to Gox anymore. Wait for their death.

The "bwhahaha i told u so" bear threads begin !

I'd been waiting a while for better odds. I got just under 2:1 this morning.

Let's hope the no side continues to fill up during this downturn, and that the time weighting has decreased plenty by the time the upswing happens

I got a single coin on that bet too. Can't wait to see how flooded the yes side gets when we get closer.

Remember the poll? not half...I got 5BTC on it

All you have to to to realize $5000-$10000 per btc is a very real possibility for this year is go to bitcoinwisdom.com, put the settings to show the log scale and look at the all time btc history.  BTC goes up in steps, or 'bubble phases'.  We've had 4 so far and they are all 7-9 months apart.  If the pattern continues the next one should happen in about 6 months and it's peak will likely be $5k-$10k.  Until then its mostly sideways and downward movement.

If mtgox fixes its withdrawals everyone will do it and crash the price down. gox will probably die out at that time, it will take a long time before it is recovered again