Do you rely on the odds when placing bets? - page 3.

hulla

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Quote from: Wexnident on February 22, 2021, 01:36:36 AM

Quote from: hulla on February 17, 2021, 06:51:01 AM

The odd can be manipulative sometimes but it not primarily happens by the bookmaker cause some bookmaker buys or emulate the odds provided by some site. However, odds usually depend on the hype of the sporting event and the previous winning stance of each opponent.

Well I mean, odds are in the end manipulated based on the results and past histories of the teams, so it isn't exactly right to say it is "biased". Yes, hype is also a factor to take into account, but most hype is actually a result of the results of the past matches that the said team has. The sample is Team X had an insane run last year, most people would start rooting for them for the next year right? It isn't biased, but rather just the result of the teams showing results based on their past matches.

I like your point but if the odds are honestly provided footing the histories of the team cant say it biased and in most situations, they are not honestly provided.

Quote from: Fredomago on February 21, 2021, 11:55:15 AM

Quote from: XZERO1 on February 21, 2021, 09:33:12 AM

Quote from: hulla on February 17, 2021, 06:51:01 AM

The odd can be manipulative sometimes but it not primarily happens by the bookmaker cause some bookmaker buys or emulate the odds provided by some site. However, odds usually depend on the hype of the sporting event and the previous winning stance of each opponent.

Yep, sometimes, but it certainly can not be too much of a change in odds by the bookmakers, simply because it would be too obvious, but the problem starts when the odd differences between winning of one team and the other team it's just too close to each other, for example odds of winning Manchester United is 2.16 and odds of Arsenal winning the match is 2.35, that's when those numbers provided by them could get manipulative to the gamblers on sports and it wouldn't surprise me if they modify these numbers in their benefit on a daily basis.

Bookmakers are capable of changing odds they are after with potential gains from those gamblers who are seeking for good value from any sports events. They also keep checking things to adjust odds, some good gamblers are tracking this out and assess if why odds are being changed and what will be the impact of such changes to sports event that they are eyeing for.

This also part of those factors to look upon, changes have reason both positive and negative as gambler, you have to assess
what benefits to take and how you'll take any opportunities.

Like I said earlier, odds can be manipulative and when bookmakers change odds it definitely for their own positive reason which will be negative for gamblers and that's why it good for a gambler to always check and compare the odds before making a single bet. But when it comes to the game result it not good to rely on the odds.

panganib999

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Quote from: Wexnident on February 22, 2021, 01:36:36 AM

Quote from: hulla on February 17, 2021, 06:51:01 AM

The odd can be manipulative sometimes but it not primarily happens by the bookmaker cause some bookmaker buys or emulate the odds provided by some site. However, odds usually depend on the hype of the sporting event and the previous winning stance of each opponent.

Well I mean, odds are in the end manipulated based on the results and past histories of the teams, so it isn't exactly right to say it is "biased". Yes, hype is also a factor to take into account, but most hype is actually a result of the results of the past matches that the said team has. The sample is Team X had an insane run last year, most people would start rooting for them for the next year right? It isn't biased, but rather just the result of the teams showing results based on their past matches.

Yes. I definitely agree to this user. The idea of the person is always survey the situation, the last results and past matches. They will always pick who are in the top right? Humain instinct. We always believe that team or simply bets that is won in the past results are likely to wpn again because it will be a good image. I think it is not biased since it is always depend on the players instinct and decision where he would place his bets. But for me, also odds are one to look at. Because people always believe in their instincts I guess. Odds are a big factor.

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Quote from: hulla on February 17, 2021, 06:51:01 AM

The odd can be manipulative sometimes but it not primarily happens by the bookmaker cause some bookmaker buys or emulate the odds provided by some site. However, odds usually depend on the hype of the sporting event and the previous winning stance of each opponent.

Well I mean, odds are in the end manipulated based on the results and past histories of the teams, so it isn't exactly right to say it is "biased". Yes, hype is also a factor to take into account, but most hype is actually a result of the results of the past matches that the said team has. The sample is Team X had an insane run last year, most people would start rooting for them for the next year right? It isn't biased, but rather just the result of the teams showing results based on their past matches.

LUCKMCFLY

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This thread seems very interesting to me, however when I saw Probability and Statistics in college, I was struck by applying probabilities to the game, at that time I was going with a friend in the afternoons to a traditional casino where we bet on roulette.

But there is a factor that does not predict the probabilities and it is "Random", you can get the best probability, even the winner, but in Casinos it does not apply to 100% because it is a percentage more for the house, which does not happen with sports and with lotteries. In sports, factors such as the performance of the players have to be taken into account, if there are injured players, how many stars the team has, even how the players take it within a team, all this is difficult to determine, but it is a work that has to do with news, see statistics and do a daily follow-up.

I say this because I also have as an expert appraiser profession, and they are key points to take into account.

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Quote from: ?? on ??

I always look at the teams I bet on. Their lineups, the history of the games. Also look at whether they play in the Champions League and how many games they play per week. I also don't bet on teams I support. I also never bet on Napoli and Chelsea and I don't bet against them either, because I have no luck with bets related to these teams.

Sometimes there are teams that we really are not winning betting on them, it's better to stay away from them if we want to focus on winning. What you are doing is good, looking at the line up and other necessary factors is very important, then you'll look at the betting odds, it's the process that everyone should do, not placing bet base on the attractive odds, that's too risky as it's like putting bet based on your instinct without a complete basis based on your analysis.

boltz

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The bets are only statistics and nothing concrete so you should analyze your games with your own eyes in order to draw a conclusion about that certain game. The odds are there just to give you a clue about who is the favorite in the game but the odd doesn't give you 100% certain winning rate as I think most of us who bet lost a ticket with an odd of 1.12 at least once in his life.

Lately, I like to go with the underdogs in Esports and in football to take small team to score goal against strong teams ...I lost too many tickets on odds under 1.50 so I'm not taking this risk anymore.

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Quote from: XZERO1 on February 21, 2021, 09:33:12 AM

Quote from: hulla on February 17, 2021, 06:51:01 AM

The odd can be manipulative sometimes but it not primarily happens by the bookmaker cause some bookmaker buys or emulate the odds provided by some site. However, odds usually depend on the hype of the sporting event and the previous winning stance of each opponent.

Yep, sometimes, but it certainly can not be too much of a change in odds by the bookmakers, simply because it would be too obvious, but the problem starts when the odd differences between winning of one team and the other team it's just too close to each other, for example odds of winning Manchester United is 2.16 and odds of Arsenal winning the match is 2.35, that's when those numbers provided by them could get manipulative to the gamblers on sports and it wouldn't surprise me if they modify these numbers in their benefit on a daily basis.

Bookmakers are capable of changing odds they are after with potential gains from those gamblers who are seeking for good value from any sports events. They also keep checking things to adjust odds, some good gamblers are tracking this out and assess if why odds are being changed and what will be the impact of such changes to sports event that they are eyeing for.

This also part of those factors to look upon, changes have reason both positive and negative as gambler, you have to assess
what benefits to take and how you'll take any opportunities.

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Quote from: kryptqnick on December 13, 2020, 10:54:22 AM

I've recently created a discussion about the odds of various outcomes and the gaps between the likely winner and other options, but some replies raised another questions that I believe is worthy of being discussed. When placing bets on sports, I rely heavily on the odds, especially if someone has a very high probability of winning, like here:

I placed a small bet on this match on Sportsbet.io:

But of course when the odds are close to one another (2.5, 3.1 and similar), I try to rely on the history of matches between the teams and recent wins/losses of the teams.
What do you follow when you are betting on sports: is it the odds or your knowledge and experience? Or maybe you're one of those people who bet on the favorite team or perhaps follows a gut? Do odds even matter to you? If yes, how important are they for your final decision?

I definately use odds. I have a number in my head of what I think will happen, then use the odds to bet one way or another. And if I am off by a real lot from the odds, I usually just lay off the game as I dont believe I have all the knowledge needed to bet on that game since I am way off. Its not an end all be all tool, just another tool to help along with betting one way or the other.

XZERO1

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Quote from: hulla on February 17, 2021, 06:51:01 AM

The odd can be manipulative sometimes but it not primarily happens by the bookmaker cause some bookmaker buys or emulate the odds provided by some site. However, odds usually depend on the hype of the sporting event and the previous winning stance of each opponent.

Yep, sometimes, but it certainly can not be too much of a change in odds by the bookmakers, simply because it would be too obvious, but the problem starts when the odd differences between winning of one team and the other team it's just too close to each other, for example odds of winning Manchester United is 2.16 and odds of Arsenal winning the match is 2.35, that's when those numbers provided by them could get manipulative to the gamblers on sports and it wouldn't surprise me if they modify these numbers in their benefit on a daily basis.

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Quote from: yazher on February 17, 2021, 07:25:59 AM

Quote from: nitrobetting on February 16, 2021, 06:55:12 PM

I think ignoring stats is digging your own grave when placing bets and odds are somewhat a part of stats. Not considering to play the odds might work once or twice, and may give you initial profit.

But eventually the only way to earn money is playing the odds. Remember that playing the odds doesn't necessarily mean you are always betting on the underdog.

Yeah, it means you are considering getting a higher chance to lose as well. This is how the gambling industry made so much money because they know lots of people will put their money on the underdog that's why they are competing who will have the highest winning odds if the underdog might win. As you can see, there are only a few cases where the underdog actually wins so it means, they can get the money they paid from those guys who lose again from betting their favorite underdogs.

Human emotion will also take part in taking the odds, and industries might already know that beginners and most betters always roots for the underdog as Humans tend to love the underdogs based on scientific researches and studies.

So if you are considering odds, you should always factor out your emotions for your own good. Always look for the better sides and how the plays works. Especially in sports bet, you must always take news on how the players you will support play.

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Quote from: Fundamentals Of on February 17, 2021, 07:37:33 AM

Quote from: yazher on February 17, 2021, 07:25:59 AM

Quote from: nitrobetting on February 16, 2021, 06:55:12 PM

I think ignoring stats is digging your own grave when placing bets and odds are somewhat a part of stats. Not considering to play the odds might work once or twice, and may give you initial profit.

But eventually the only way to earn money is playing the odds. Remember that playing the odds doesn't necessarily mean you are always betting on the underdog.

Yeah, it means you are considering getting a higher chance to lose as well. This is how the gambling industry made so much money because they know lots of people will put their money on the underdog that's why they are competing who will have the highest winning odds if the underdog might win. As you can see, there are only a few cases where the underdog actually wins so it means, they can get the money they paid from those guys who lose again from betting their favorite underdogs.

No, the betting industry does not make more money if underdog bettors win over favorite bettors. It does not actually matter to them. The betting industry makes money every time a bet is settled. They take away a certain amount from the money bet on their platforms. Somebody wins and somebody loses. The loser will pay the winner and the betting platform will always receive its portion.

The portion is not directly taken, it's based on the betting odds they displayed.

For a fair game, one will get an odds from 1.85 to 1.95 so that's 2- the odds and that's the commission.

Based on articles I read, 10% is the standard commission of the bookies, and they make constant money because they know how to balance the bets in every side. Major volume of bets are on standard point spread and ML bets.

Fundamentals Of

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Quote from: yazher on February 17, 2021, 07:25:59 AM

Quote from: nitrobetting on February 16, 2021, 06:55:12 PM

I think ignoring stats is digging your own grave when placing bets and odds are somewhat a part of stats. Not considering to play the odds might work once or twice, and may give you initial profit.

But eventually the only way to earn money is playing the odds. Remember that playing the odds doesn't necessarily mean you are always betting on the underdog.

Yeah, it means you are considering getting a higher chance to lose as well. This is how the gambling industry made so much money because they know lots of people will put their money on the underdog that's why they are competing who will have the highest winning odds if the underdog might win. As you can see, there are only a few cases where the underdog actually wins so it means, they can get the money they paid from those guys who lose again from betting their favorite underdogs.

No, the betting industry does not make more money if underdog bettors win over favorite bettors. It does not actually matter to them. The betting industry makes money every time a bet is settled. They take away a certain amount from the money bet on their platforms. Somebody wins and somebody loses. The loser will pay the winner and the betting platform will always receive its portion.

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Quote from: nitrobetting on February 16, 2021, 06:55:12 PM

I think ignoring stats is digging your own grave when placing bets and odds are somewhat a part of stats. Not considering to play the odds might work once or twice, and may give you initial profit.

But eventually the only way to earn money is playing the odds. Remember that playing the odds doesn't necessarily mean you are always betting on the underdog.

Yeah, it means you are considering getting a higher chance to lose as well. This is how the gambling industry made so much money because they know lots of people will put their money on the underdog that's why they are competing who will have the highest winning odds if the underdog might win. As you can see, there are only a few cases where the underdog actually wins so it means, they can get the money they paid from those guys who lose again from betting their favorite underdogs.

hulla

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Quote from: tyz on February 17, 2021, 05:44:55 AM

Quote from: 3meek on February 07, 2021, 03:46:29 AM

Quote from: iamsheikhadil on February 07, 2021, 03:30:07 AM

I view odds as nothing but representation of majority view towards a certain event. And that makes odds very very manipulative. In 2016, people's opinion of Donald Trump winning was so low, and it's like a cycle, people thought Trump won't win, the odds adjusted themselves, and people after seeing the odds believed it more. In sports, odds become much more dangerous to trust, because there is a huge luck factor as well, even the strongest player can get injured!

In sports it is also the result of the latest events of this or that team... For example, if an outsider suddenly wins several games in a row by chance, then his odds will increase in the following games...

But that doesn't happen because of the bookmakers, but because more bettors predict a victory for the outsider. The bookmaker always tries to adjust the odds so that it makes profits. Depending on how many bettors bet on a certain outcome, the odds change accordingly. I think sometimes that is not so clear to everyone.

The odd can be manipulative sometimes but it not primarily happens by the bookmaker cause some bookmaker buys or emulate the odds provided by some site. However, odds usually depend on the hype of the sporting event and the previous winning stance of each opponent.

tyz

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Quote from: 3meek on February 07, 2021, 03:46:29 AM

Quote from: iamsheikhadil on February 07, 2021, 03:30:07 AM

I view odds as nothing but representation of majority view towards a certain event. And that makes odds very very manipulative. In 2016, people's opinion of Donald Trump winning was so low, and it's like a cycle, people thought Trump won't win, the odds adjusted themselves, and people after seeing the odds believed it more. In sports, odds become much more dangerous to trust, because there is a huge luck factor as well, even the strongest player can get injured!

In sports it is also the result of the latest events of this or that team... For example, if an outsider suddenly wins several games in a row by chance, then his odds will increase in the following games...

But that doesn't happen because of the bookmakers, but because more bettors predict a victory for the outsider. The bookmaker always tries to adjust the odds so that it makes profits. Depending on how many bettors bet on a certain outcome, the odds change accordingly. I think sometimes that is not so clear to everyone.

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Quote from: ethereumhunter on February 07, 2021, 08:03:24 AM

Quote from: 3meek on February 07, 2021, 03:46:29 AM

Quote from: iamsheikhadil on February 07, 2021, 03:30:07 AM

I view odds as nothing but representation of majority view towards a certain event. And that makes odds very very manipulative. In 2016, people's opinion of Donald Trump winning was so low, and it's like a cycle, people thought Trump won't win, the odds adjusted themselves, and people after seeing the odds believed it more. In sports, odds become much more dangerous to trust, because there is a huge luck factor as well, even the strongest player can get injured!

In sports it is also the result of the latest events of this or that team... For example, if an outsider suddenly wins several games in a row by chance, then his odds will increase in the following games...

But that does not guarantee that team will win again because we know that the other team will not give up if they see their opponent have high odds. They will try to give the best performance in the field, and they will beat the opponent even if they do not have high odds. Maybe if we have the other info about the next match and know which team really has a chance to win, we do not have to confuse to select the team, even if that team is weak because the weak team can surprise the audience.

Interesting. I believe there will be very talented/skillful bettors who understand or see what the crowd doesn't see. The strong ones will end up betting oppsite of what the crowd believes has low/high chances. A true outcome will result to win for them on fair betting site.

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Quote from: nitrobetting on February 16, 2021, 06:55:12 PM

I think ignoring stats is digging your own grave when placing bets and odds are somewhat a part of stats. Not considering to play the odds might work once or twice, and may give you initial profit.

Not all the time because sometimes you are lucky and you will win even if you are just betting according to your instinct, but it will not work for long term as you need some consistency when we are talking of long term.

Quote from: nitrobetting on February 16, 2021, 06:55:12 PM

But eventually the only way to earn money is playing the odds. Remember that playing the odds doesn't necessarily mean you are always betting on the underdog.

Of course, you should know how to analyze the odds as bookmakers are very smart in luring the public to bet on losing odds.

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Quote from: Natsuu on February 07, 2021, 03:44:52 AM

Quote from: iamsheikhadil on February 07, 2021, 03:30:07 AM

Quote from: arifteguhr on January 23, 2021, 09:48:34 PM

Quote from: Crptomagma on January 16, 2021, 02:53:22 AM

When I’m placing bet the odds of the both team matters to me because the odds is in direct proportion to the outcome of the game. The odds of the game also determined the amount in which I’m going to stake in the game. The odds also will make the game more interesting for me to play.

The existence of odds does help to see opportunities where you can get profit. The average person, apart from doing analysis based on games, also looks at the odds which are used as a reference for betting on which team and what total bet. this is obviously very influential. but sometimes there are lots of traps at the odds which often change and change when my new game starts

I view odds as nothing but representation of majority view towards a certain event. And that makes odds very very manipulative. In 2016, people's opinion of Donald Trump winning was so low, and it's like a cycle, people thought Trump won't win, the odds adjusted themselves, and people after seeing the odds believed it more. In sports, odds become much more dangerous to trust, because there is a huge luck factor as well, even the strongest player can get injured!

ODDS are manipulative, only if the people who views this odds doesn't have information regarding the participants in the bet. People commonly lean towards the bet with better odds cause they don't have conclusive evidences/reason to pick, thats why they rely on other's picks thinking that those people has more knowledge and information that dictates who will they pick.

On which sportsbook are you gambling? Because on most sportsbooks odds are fixed by bookmakers and not by the bettors, it's only on parimutuel betting sportsbooks like the one on Freebitcoin where the odds are computed according to gamblers bets.

nitrobetting

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I think ignoring stats is digging your own grave when placing bets and odds are somewhat a part of stats. Not considering to play the odds might work once or twice, and may give you initial profit.

But eventually the only way to earn money is playing the odds. Remember that playing the odds doesn't necessarily mean you are always betting on the underdog.

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Quote from: 3meek on February 07, 2021, 03:46:29 AM

Quote from: iamsheikhadil on February 07, 2021, 03:30:07 AM

I view odds as nothing but representation of majority view towards a certain event. And that makes odds very very manipulative. In 2016, people's opinion of Donald Trump winning was so low, and it's like a cycle, people thought Trump won't win, the odds adjusted themselves, and people after seeing the odds believed it more. In sports, odds become much more dangerous to trust, because there is a huge luck factor as well, even the strongest player can get injured!

In sports it is also the result of the latest events of this or that team... For example, if an outsider suddenly wins several games in a row by chance, then his odds will increase in the following games...

But that does not guarantee that team will win again because we know that the other team will not give up if they see their opponent have high odds. They will try to give the best performance in the field, and they will beat the opponent even if they do not have high odds. Maybe if we have the other info about the next match and know which team really has a chance to win, we do not have to confuse to select the team, even if that team is weak because the weak team can surprise the audience.

Topic: Do you rely on the odds when placing bets? - page 3. (Read 12696 times)