Topic: Do you still believe in predictions of "experts" about the bitcoin price? - page 15. (Read 3410 times)

the important thing to know is that these are not "predictions" since people can not see the future. these are guesses. sometimes they are pure guess based on their gut, sometimes they are educated guesses based on some experience and signals. the second one is the one worth looking into and it is not about believing in them or  following them blindly, it is just to see what others think  and seeing how things work with speculation.
there is another type of "prediction" which should be confused with "prediction" at all and that is the kind where someone doesn't even believe in it but hopes it would happen. for instance nowadays there are many who hope for the price to reach a very high level by the end of the year and there are some others who wish price falls to a very low level so they both come up with something they call "prediction" and then try to reason for it.

I used to always use bitcoin price predictions by experts and from my friends, I also got a prediction of bitcoin prices from trading signals on telegram channels, even I saw a telegram channel that was paid, but now I stopped because I thought it was just useless.

they cannot predict the news or current market situation, and usually experts can only predict the short term with a normal market, speculation people can only be for reference, do not believe 100% of such predictions.
The only predictions of course will not be 100% accurate, experts speculate using data, graphics and market history,

If some one is really expert in predicting the market, I will trust him/her. But no one is expert in this market. No one can predict the market. There are some people that are just famous and people think they are expert. But they aren't.

Well, these days everyone calls himself "expert". I'm still very careful to all these experts claiming to predict BTC price, because it's not possible to predict any price, even the trend is very difficult to predict and maybe it's better to dice it, who knows...

Never have. Never will. It's just pissing in the wind, especially the short term stuff they appear to be addicted to.

Check that review of predictions made at the start of 2014 - https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-predictions-2014-pundits-fared/

If they had half a brain they'd stick to longer term predictions but I guess that gets them on less TV shows.

There are no experts in this market. Bitcoin has been around for less than a decade. Most of the commentators you see on TV don't understand the technology nor its built-in economic incentives. I don't take their predictions seriously at all.

I do remember sensible people warning of the upcoming crash once the price went vertical and into 5 figures. After all, a crash is only natural after the kind of rise we saw in 2017. If you hadn't been through a Bitcoin "bubble" before, now you know.

Who’s expert in prediction, btw?
How can I trust that prediction where in fact this market is unpredictable. I only listen to those news/predictions, I still read it buy I don’t believe on it 100%. The only way to win in this market to have your own strategies, and to have more research about the market.

Yes, I agree with you that we do not trust them 100% because what the master says even though they are currently unable to prove or show how bitcoin in the future they only exist when bitcoin rises.
really fooling if anyone believes in people who can predict the price of bitcoin.
we don't need to believe in them. I think self-understanding is better than believing in the results of others and that is not necessarily the truth.

Predict something is impossible. All this stuff depends on political and social events relating to bitcoin.

when i see people who only use a chart. and they then draw lines using past price data. i call them trend ANALS (TA) not technical analysts(TA)

you cannot predict a future price by only looking at a past price. it doesnt work that way.
what ends up actually happening is bots stupidly get programmed to repeat the past. thus its not predicting the future. its just created a repeat.

proper technical analysts look at the causes of the past. such as knowing that october 2013 was due to ASICS raising the "acquisition cost" of bitcoin due to hashrate rise asics caused and the higher price of equipment/electric to hash that increase.
ofcourse the HYPE (emotion/speculation) quadrupled the price above the acquisition cost. but then when bad news hit. it corrected down

the reason 2014 bottomed out at no lower than $250 but was higher than 2013'a low of $100. was that the $250 of 2014 was the underlying bottom value of acquisition costs that no one is foolish to sell below.

the 2017 spike was not about hash power. because november2017-march2018 had no change in ASIC tech. the 2017 spike was PURE HYPE of the "segwitx1 locked, segwitx2 rekt" which is what the big bankers were waiting for and contracted paid devs to push through so the devs can release their tranch of funds for meeting their contractual duty. the bankers then went on a big buying round and speculators got all warm and fuzzy that some drama event and code finally got to its november2017 deadline.

ofcourse because "acquisition costs" didnt go up as fast as the speculation. that spike too was corrected down.
which then resulted with prices staying low and near the acquisition costs. which fluctuated above $5.8k due to a few different reasons.
..
in short if you see someone say "price will move because of X prior date did this" they are trend anals
if you see someone talk about the acquisition costs of mining and they actually explain when a spike happens there is nothing backing its cost so expect it to pop and correct. then they are more of the technical analysts.

however even technical analysts that actually look for causes in reality.. cannot predict the precise time. or how high it will go. they can only suggest if a large movement is backed by real costs that people will refuse to sell below. which will hold a price at a new bottom.. or if the acquisitions costs have not increased. then expect it to correct back down to the per hype value(but cant predict when)

   Predictions is not trustworthy even it came from some experts because market is difficult to predict and even the price of all digital coins. It always rely on the number of demands and supply in the market if it will increase or not. But sometimes prediction could help someone to stay strong and continue to believe that someday bitcoin price and other cons will increase more.

Its only prediction of course it wont be 100% accurate, the expert are speculating using data, chart and and market history, they cant predict the news or the market situation nowadays, and usually the expert onlyn can predict a short term with a normal market, people's speculation can only for reference, don't 100% believe it

There’s no need to believe in any of the feel good and don’t miss out future Bitcoin price prediction, the Bitcoin price and all the Altcoins prices are already so high now, that guessing on a  even higher future price are clearly speculations.

I've stopped paying attention to price predictions after my first few months in crypto - most of the times they just react to sudden price movements. When the price moves up 5-10%, "experts" start talking how we enter bull market and that the price will go to the moon soon, and then it's the same with price drops - 5-10% crash or more, and everyone talk about bear markets and doom. Also, the interesting thing is that most of the times predictions are either overblown or too humble, I don't remember a prediction that was somewhat accurate - no one predicted the $20k ATH, the $6k floor and so on.

Most predictions are based on past history which may not be repeated, there are as such no guarantees, also the market seem to do its own thing these days as there is so much manipulation that will always mess up the best of technical analysis , you can't tell when whales will dump on the market. I don't trust in predictions

It is very difficult to predict what bitcoin will reach in the short and medium term. Many experts still maintain their predictions that bitcoin will hit their ATH this year and I hope they are right but as a long-term investor I try not to worry so much about the short term

Not all, but I believe in some.They are usually speculation. But there are comments that I find really logical. Actually, if you follow the market, you'll know who's actually making the right guess.

Probably not. I do not believe to anyone here they are experts in cryptocurrency. Because we all know that noone can ever predict what will be the price of bitcoin.

Realistically how can anyone predict anything other than a generalisation
about the future of Bitcoin? Everyone knows that bitcoin will grow in
adoption, utilisation and value but putting a number on it is impossible
so I dont pay too much attention to what "experts" say other than maybe
Charlie Lee.