Topic: Do you think Bitcoin will crash again as ASIC equipment start to ship? (Read 2040 times)
February 23, 2013, 10:11:56 AM
Good time to flip a few BTC to LTC ?
February 23, 2013, 06:18:41 AM
My assumption, prices will dip a few dollars as some miners may want to sell asap to cover the costs of the equipment. My expectation at worst case scenario,$15.
February 23, 2013, 06:14:45 AM
The recent price increase could be related to people purchasing coins to get ready for ASIC purchases. Some people want to wait until shipments start to make their order. When they do, it could trigger a downward trend.
Sounds very possible.
February 23, 2013, 01:01:50 AM
The recent price increase could be related to people purchasing coins to get ready for ASIC purchases. Some people want to wait until shipments start to make their order. When they do, it could trigger a downward trend.
February 23, 2013, 12:00:53 AM
The only argument I've ever heard for how ASICs could put downward pricing pressure on Bitcoins is that lots of miners who hold all the Bitcoins they mine will instead choose to sell some of them to get the money to upgrade to ASICs. I think this is a valid argument, but the big question is how significant this will be and whether it will be outweighed by other ways ASICs could put upward pricing pressure on Bitcoins. There, my crystal ball is not so clear.
February 22, 2013, 11:58:29 PM
The bitcoin price likes to crash every now and then just for the lolz.
TrollCoin:
"Bitcoin goes up, Bitcoin goes down.
You can't explain that."
February 22, 2013, 05:54:14 PM
Prices will crash when they ship or when the fuckup is accepted whatever happens sooner.
February 22, 2013, 05:22:27 PM
The bitcoin price likes to crash every now and then just for the lolz.
TrollCoin:
"Bitcoin goes up, Bitcoin goes down.
You can't explain that."
February 22, 2013, 01:49:31 PM
?? The price distinctly soared as soon as Avalon was proven to be real. 
February 22, 2013, 11:26:46 AM
some people who invested in asics might want to regain their fiat invested and thus sell their first coins.
At the same time there will be miners who purchased ASIC devices with their bitcoin with intentions of having even more bitcoin when it's all said and done.
that would be me. i've never sold any Bitcoin from my gpu mining either.
i mean, why would you when you know their value will go up?
February 22, 2013, 11:19:31 AM
February 22, 2013, 10:40:56 AM
I think it's likely, but it will just be a coincidence.
The bitcoin price likes to crash every now and then just for the lolz.
The bitcoin price likes to crash every now and then just for the lolz.
February 22, 2013, 10:37:16 AM
You compare the hashrate with the exchange rate ..
..
So if the hashrate is going up the price will be going up with a chance at about 70%.
1. You can not compare the hashrate from the past with what's coming online within the next couple of months, hashrate is more or less guaranteed to skyrocket into heights never seen before.
2. It's not the price following the hashrate, it's the hashrate following the price. When the price rises, mining becomes profitable to more people, more people start mining, hashrate rises too.
IMO your calculations don't make any sense.
welcome to my ignore...
Yay! \o/ February 22, 2013, 10:11:27 AM
You compare the hashrate with the exchange rate ..
..
So if the hashrate is going up the price will be going up with a chance at about 70%.
1. You can not compare the hashrate from the past with what's coming online within the next couple of months, hashrate is more or less guaranteed to skyrocket into heights never seen before.
2. It's not the price following the hashrate, it's the hashrate following the price. When the price rises, mining becomes profitable to more people, more people start mining, hashrate rises too.
IMO your calculations don't make any sense.
welcome to my ignore...
Yay! \o/ February 22, 2013, 09:55:56 AM
There is a way of predicting this.
You compare the hashrate with the exchange rate (in this case US$ / BTC) this can be done very easy with excels RSQ function. You will get the coefficient of determination or R². The last time I checked it it was about 0,7 or 70% more or less.
This actually tells you the hashrate is (corrolating) depending on the exchange rate at 70% and at 30% for some other unknown reasons.
So if the hashrate is going up the price will be going up with a chance at about 70%.
You compare the hashrate with the exchange rate (in this case US$ / BTC) this can be done very easy with excels RSQ function. You will get the coefficient of determination or R². The last time I checked it it was about 0,7 or 70% more or less.
This actually tells you the hashrate is (corrolating) depending on the exchange rate at 70% and at 30% for some other unknown reasons.
So if the hashrate is going up the price will be going up with a chance at about 70%.
February 22, 2013, 06:43:17 AM
What exactly is the relationship between ASICs being shipped and the price?
Just asking, cuz I see none.
3600BTC per day (or a couple of hundred more) don't have that much of an impact on the market.
Just asking, cuz I see none.
3600BTC per day (or a couple of hundred more) don't have that much of an impact on the market.
some people who invested in asics might want to regain their fiat invested and thus sell their first coins.
So?
Even if ALL coins generated per day are sold immediately that's only 3600 (+ a couple due to rising hashrate),
daily market volume on the other hand is 80k-100k, so the total market-impact is only 4-5%, pretty unlikely to cause a crash if you ask me.
That's nice to know. Nice simple way to explain it. 4-5% seems like a small variable, so not much change then.
February 22, 2013, 06:39:55 AM
What exactly is the relationship between ASICs being shipped and the price?
Just asking, cuz I see none.
3600BTC per day (or a couple of hundred more) don't have that much of an impact on the market.
Just asking, cuz I see none.
3600BTC per day (or a couple of hundred more) don't have that much of an impact on the market.
some people who invested in asics might want to regain their fiat invested and thus sell their first coins.
So?
Even if ALL coins generated per day are sold immediately that's only 3600 (+ a couple due to rising hashrate),
daily market volume on the other hand is 80k-100k, so the total market-impact is only 4-5%, pretty unlikely to cause a crash if you ask me.
February 22, 2013, 06:24:43 AM
What exactly is the relationship between ASICs being shipped and the price?
Just asking, cuz I see none.
3600BTC per day (or a couple of hundred more) don't have that much of an impact on the market.
Just asking, cuz I see none.
3600BTC per day (or a couple of hundred more) don't have that much of an impact on the market.
February 22, 2013, 06:20:32 AM
The supply of BTC will be constant since the difficulty will adjust for it so no. The network will be more secure if any.
February 22, 2013, 06:19:50 AM
why would it?
at most 3600 btc are created a day
24 hour volume on mtgox (just one of many exchanges...not even counting otc trade here)
Volume:53246 BTC
even if every one of those 3600 were dumped what damage could it do?
at most 3600 btc are created a day
24 hour volume on mtgox (just one of many exchanges...not even counting otc trade here)
Volume:53246 BTC
even if every one of those 3600 were dumped what damage could it do?
Jump to: