Topic: Do you think Bitcoin will start a new rally? - page 2. (Read 4087 times)

It is rallying already.

You realize that makes you an exceptional expert, if the numbers were indeed correct?

A few reasons.  

The history of bubbles is certainly one worth considering, and not to be discounted: lots of us first noticed BTC because of a bubble - it popped up in news, we read about it, either bought in then (high) or waited and watched, bought some on the way down, thinking that it could do it again.  Even though it's quite common (and true) to hear or say "past performance doesn't guarantee future performance," there is a definite psychological effect that says "well shit, BTC's spiked multiple times before, and it's going up again - I should put a little/jump in this time"

Another reason is what I mentioned in the post above.  The price has been depressed quite a bit over the last few months, as people that had held BTC were gradually selling it off to either cut their losses or take some kind of a profit.  I would venture a guess, though, that quite a few people made some hefty gains on the way up and the way down, and are now sitting largely on the sidelines while we are testing the lows, and have possibly gotten to the bottom.  If this isn't the bottom, then the market will keep trying to find it.  Once we do, however, these same people that have been sitting and waiting are also the same folks that were waiting for their buy-in point.  If a large amount of that same money comes back into BTC, there's only one direction it can go - and it will get there quickly because it's already been there before.  So the incremental jumps from 400-500, 500-600, 600-700 could very well be something that you can sit and watch in the course of a few hours or day on Bitcoin tickers.

It's definitely not so much of a case of demand increasing dramatically as it is a case of investors saying: "I have a chance of increasing my investment by hundreds or thousands of percents in a few days or weeks.  I want to invest/re-invest and don't want to get left behind"


There's a ton of herd mentality in it as well, but that should be obvious.  To call buying at the beginning of Bitcoin's bubbles madness though, seems like shortsighted marginalization - there are some of us on this board who have made tremendous gains by paying attention to them and riding that geyser upwards.

Keep in mind, I'm not saying we are at the bottom now, or were, and are currently in the precursor phase of that event.  I'm only describing two major factors that I think have contributed to prior bubbles, and will contribute to the next one.

History does tend to repeat itself if you look at almost any other commodity, there's no logical  reason to think btc will be any different

Expect a rollercoaster because its not going to be smooth sailing on calm seas all the way

Read madness and the delusion of crowds. You are right.

What's the reasoning behind this? Other than it's the history of bubbles. Why does it explode as opposed to steady increase?  All of a sudden demand increases 1000x and everyone buys at the same time, seems kind of remote? Is it just crazed excitement?

The chances of sky high like last year or higher are far greater than 0.0000001%.  There are plenty of people who closed their positions while it's been going down who would also be more than happy to get back in if it was going back up.  Also, keep in mind there's more people that are exposed to BTC with each one, and a year's worth of improved infrastructure since last year.

As drawn out as the fallouts post-bubbles can be in BTC's history, the actual rise of the bubble happens in a markedly opposite manner: quick and violent.

Imo possibly when Second Market announces a date for when their Bitcoin exchange will open or when/if the Winklevoss's ETF gets approved we could see at least a mini rally

i think yes
we will see price bumping same like last year

I don't believe you, FEW coins

The new rally has started... 400 will be a deciding point and 420 will be possible

Exactly.  The factors that influence bitcoin's price are very uncertain atm

If someone is hoping that it will go sky high as last year in November , even though I'm not an expert but the chances of that happening is 0.0000001% but I'm glad we are moving up a lil 400$ by the end of the year is not too bad either.

I ... just don't know.

I don't have the money, the balls and the crystal ball to help me get rich, so I guess I'll die trying. But... good luck to all of us!


BTC and actually all the altcoin's price are driven by something else, not only their innovation and the cost to mine them. They are not backed by something like gold. People will buy for different reasons (support, hope to get rich, ways to make business, ways to hide wealth, ...) and it's not clear what makes them at one point make the money flow in or out BTC. I would say that Silk road 2's problems would make the money flow out from BTC and go into anonymous cryptos. But hmm.. I may be very wrong.

  

One reason it can be difficult to provide exact targets is because trend lines aren't flat. Today, breaking above the bear market trend line might require ~$460, but by the end of November, it might only require ~$440. So, there are past values that may remain constant for psychological reasons, and linear (and nonlinear) projections that don't. And then there are numbers that people just pull out of the air.

I can't argue with your first point, I only said I was guessing, but we were asked to share thoughts, not prove we are right. The arbitrary points are simply the previous peaks because reactionary people will probably see them as meaningful, and the price is mostly reflective of psychology after all.

just some advice butboy

November will be a bull month, I'm pretty sure about that and possibly December too. I don't think there will be a crazy rally like last year though

Sell drugs , buy bitcoin
Jail time would be fun watching charts.
Win-win situation.