Do you think the value of bitcoins will ever stabalize?

ptshamrock

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Quote from: ?? on ??

I've said this all over the forum. I'll say it again. It will take three things for a stable price.

A much higher exchange rate.

A much larger group of people buying and selling bitcoins.

A wider distribution of bitcoins.

When these three things happen, one person (with either a ton of fiat money or a ton of bitcoins) won't be able to move the market several percent with one purchase or sell.

These things take time. As long as the network doesn't fail, they will eventually happen.

Until then, don't expect a stable bitcoin.

AMEN !

asdf

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Quote from: bb113 on January 22, 2012, 02:00:35 AM

It's fractals all the way down.

Yeah, I totally get this!

rjk

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1ngldh

Quote from: Zoomer on January 23, 2012, 12:53:15 AM

Or a banker to step up and start selling options or futures. Hell it might even stabilize he currency a little.

Kind of complicated to use, but here is an options market: http://polimedia.us/bitcoin/options.php

Also, I have heard rumors of a soon-to-open derivatives trading market.

Zoomer

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: niko on January 22, 2012, 01:07:00 PM

2. Buy BTC on Cavirtex, withdraw to MtGox, sell - an hour (this is where the fluctuation in price might ruin or sweeten the deal)

Right, I missed the hour part. That sucks.

Hmm... if there is money available on the other side (before doing the transfer), you could buy on Cavirtex, and sell on Gox at the same exact time and reduce the risk even more. Of course, that requires money on the other side which makes it less convenient.

Or a banker to step up and start selling options or futures. Hell it might even stabilize he currency a little.

Zoomer

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Quote from: cunicula on January 22, 2012, 05:07:35 AM

Quote from: zer0 on January 22, 2012, 01:40:22 AM

The PM of Malaysia in the 90s insulated his country from foreign speculation which saved them from the economic crisis of the late 90s which destabilized every country around them. When he first suggested it at Davos economic conference they nearly laughed him out of the building then after his country survived the worst regional recession they hailed him as a hero.

Lol @ #bitcoin-cabal clearly the btc secret society

This is hardly the line I would take if I wanted to ingratiate myself with the leadership.

Plus, it's not even true.

gurg2.o

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lol!

Mjbmonetarymetals

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gurg2.o

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let's do it haha

nmat

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Hmm... if there is money available on the other side (before doing the transfer), you could buy on Cavirtex, and sell on Gox at the same exact time and reduce the risk even more. Of course, that requires money on the other side which makes it less convenient.

Feel free to open a business that does currency conversion through bitcoin Wink

niko

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There is more to Bitcoin than bitcoins.

Quote from: punningclan on January 22, 2012, 01:11:15 AM

Quote from: niko on January 22, 2012, 12:55:30 AM

Not sure if it will ever stabilize, but I am sure I can't reliably use Bitcoin for international money transfers until it does. This way it's more of a gamble than money transfer.

How long does a transfer take?

Overall, going from CAD cash, to the USD in a US bank or credit union:
1. Deposit CAD into Cavirtex account - few hours
2. Buy BTC on Cavirtex, withdraw to MtGox, sell - an hour (this is where the fluctuation in price might ruin or sweeten the deal)
3. Withdraw USD to Dwolla - a day
4. Withdraw from Dwolla to the US account - three days

When the price is stable, the cost is much lower than exchanging currencies at the bank and paying international wire transfer fees. It's also faster (~4 days total) and safer then mailing a USD draft/certified check to avoid wire transfer fees.

cbeast

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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

Quote from: ?? on ??

If your hypothesis is that there are repeating patterns in the time series then you can use Pearson to test it. My point about the PPMCC being scale agnostic is that you can successfully compare samples that have different scaling.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearson_product-moment_correlation_coefficient

This would be useful if we understood the correlations between seemingly unrelated events. The patterns may not yet be recognizable until greater scale is measurable. Even so, such patterns are useless until they can make accurate predictions. We are a long way from that. OTOH, maybe there is some Manipulator that has it all figured out and is getting rich.

gurg2.o

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So confused yet intrigued haha.

cbeast

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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

Quote from: bb113 on January 22, 2012, 02:00:35 AM

It's fractals all the way down.

Heh

gurg2.o

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yeah

bb113

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Apples vs oranges = different sets of confounds

bb113

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I think the problem arises due to comparing apples vs oranges. If you care to clarify I'd appreciate it, my original comment about fractals was actually pretty vague and flippant. My bad.

cunicula

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Quote from: zer0 on January 22, 2012, 01:40:22 AM

The PM of Malaysia in the 90s insulated his country from foreign speculation which saved them from the economic crisis of the late 90s which destabilized every country around them. When he first suggested it at Davos economic conference they nearly laughed him out of the building then after his country survived the worst regional recession they hailed him as a hero.

Lol @ #bitcoin-cabal clearly the btc secret society

This is hardly the line I would take if I wanted to ingratiate myself with the leadership.

bb113

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I just mean the same patterns seem to repeat themselves at every order of magnitude.

bb113

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It's fractals all the way down.

bb113

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In contrast to what I said earlier, there is a model of evolution that proposes that most change occurs suddenly rather than gradually. It is termed punk-eek (punctuated equilibrium). I am not sure if anyone has tried to apply this to social/economic systems, but it seems like it could work.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punctuated_equilibrium

Topic: Do you think the value of bitcoins will ever stabalize? (Read 3658 times)