Do you want to be a technical analyst yourself?

exstasie

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Quote from: Poker Player on December 15, 2020, 03:21:41 PM

That's why I just invest long term.

I follow traders out of curiosity and entertainment, but no matter how complicated their analysis, or their candlestick charts, fail constantly.

They should fail constantly. Good traders have win rates in the 60% range. With proper risk management, a win rate of 40% or 50% can be profitable.

Laymen, as well as lots of misguided traders, have a misconception that markets can be predicted. That if you see a pattern and trade it, it guarantees a result you can profit from. Unfortunately, that's not how markets work. There are no guarantees, only probabilities and estimated guesses. The key to trading profitably is to manage risk so that losses are small (by using stop losses) and wins are large. When you're taking at least 3 units of reward for every 1 unit of risk and you have a positive win rate, you have the capacity to make a lot of money trading.

And that's what you don't see when a trader posts a chart that fails. A good trader will quickly stop loss and move onto the next trade setup. Rinse and repeat.

Most people don't realize that trading is really all about remaining rigorous and unemotional in spite of the fact that you're constantly losing trades. It's all about long term performance.

Hamphser

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Quote from: Poker Player on December 15, 2020, 03:21:41 PM

Quote from: Coin_trader on December 05, 2020, 08:58:47 AM

I stop reading books after I finished to study the basic of trading such as using of Indicators and reading patterns. This tons of knowledge in trading is useless if you don't a good strategy no matter how many books you read. The more you read, the more complicated your trading it will get especially when you apply it in crypto trading.

It's hard to apply the traditional trading principle to a market that can be easily manipulated by news and hype.

That's why I just invest long term.

I follow traders out of curiosity and entertainment, but no matter how complicated their analysis, or their candlestick charts, fail constantly.

I am sure that many of the most famous ones earn more selling books and courses than they do from trading.

You are particularly pertaining to those ebook sellers or mentors in forex and stocks where they do offer out those services and trying to claim that they were profitable
but in real talks they are still struggling on dealing with the market.People should really be attentive and be careful on joining these things in the first place.
This had been always the case were technicals arent always precise from time to time but studying this and trying to familiarize would really be a great
help into your trading career.It is much better if you do have something like this rather than on doing nothing at all.

Poker Player

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Quote from: Coin_trader on December 05, 2020, 08:58:47 AM

I stop reading books after I finished to study the basic of trading such as using of Indicators and reading patterns. This tons of knowledge in trading is useless if you don't a good strategy no matter how many books you read. The more you read, the more complicated your trading it will get especially when you apply it in crypto trading.

It's hard to apply the traditional trading principle to a market that can be easily manipulated by news and hype.

That's why I just invest long term.

I follow traders out of curiosity and entertainment, but no matter how complicated their analysis, or their candlestick charts, fail constantly.

I am sure that many of the most famous ones earn more selling books and courses than they do from trading.

hatshepsut93

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Quote from: exstasie on December 14, 2020, 03:47:59 PM

I know a couple people who program their own bots. For pure price action traders, that route is way easier because the logic is so easy. Mostly just stop buys, stop sells and take profits, based on pivot or candlestick breakouts or failures.

A friend once advised me never to run a bot unless you program it yourself. He strongly believes customers of generic turnkey bots like Gunbot are just cannibalizing each other for extremely low margins.

I also think most people running bots like that don't even know how to trade, and that's the biggest pitfall. You need to constantly tweak your parameters in reaction to the market trend and volatility to be a successful bot trader. That requires an intimate understanding of markets and technical analysis.

In other words, I believe you need to be a successful trader before you can be a successful bot trader. There are no bots where you can press a button and print money. That's just not how it works.

Employing neural networks sounds interesting, but the level of complexity involved makes my brain hurt.

Well, the point of neural network is that it doesn't know anything about the details of what it processes, so the programmer doesn't need to know anything about it either. But making a neural network is indeed challenging, I tried it myself in other fields and got no results, and it takes a lot of studying, and some good math background also helps.

djgtr

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Quote from: sayaya17 on December 13, 2020, 04:48:55 PM

This is a good recommendation, especially for those who still do not really understand about analysis techniques,
and no exception for anyone who feels like having it. It doesn’t harm to collect guidebooks like this. Although
actually on the internet also we can get this kind of knowledge. In fact, I have also found threads that discuss
technical analysis in this forum. But everything is going to be very good and be skilled when we practice it a lot on the field.
Because experience is the best teacher. For that one must dare to enter the trading exchange. But by the way,
how much price for a book like this?

If there's a book for this, maybe I'll only buy it in times of difficulties encountered during hardships of trading. That probably help me with several things related to cryptocurrency and other business guidance. Development of yourself must start within your experience, so don't stop on just one failure bur rather make it as an inspiration to push forward in order to be successful. You can't do it all alone, we need to listen to different people who had also a good insights, that could give further analysis in order attain perfect conclusions.

exstasie

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on December 13, 2020, 03:59:35 PM

Wouldn't a neural network be better suited to be a technical analyst than any human? Technical analysis tells us that the market is full of patterns and it's only a matter of recognizing them, and neural networks are exceptionally good at recognizing patterns if you just feed them the data. How well do the trading bots actually perform compared to humans? Is it worth trying to train a bot yourself, or is it too complicated for someone without a strong background in neural networks?

I know a couple people who program their own bots. For pure price action traders, that route is way easier because the logic is so easy. Mostly just stop buys, stop sells and take profits, based on pivot or candlestick breakouts or failures.

A friend once advised me never to run a bot unless you program it yourself. He strongly believes customers of generic turnkey bots like Gunbot are just cannibalizing each other for extremely low margins.

I also think most people running bots like that don't even know how to trade, and that's the biggest pitfall. You need to constantly tweak your parameters in reaction to the market trend and volatility to be a successful bot trader. That requires an intimate understanding of markets and technical analysis.

In other words, I believe you need to be a successful trader before you can be a successful bot trader. There are no bots where you can press a button and print money. That's just not how it works.

Employing neural networks sounds interesting, but the level of complexity involved makes my brain hurt.

sana54210

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Merit: 1128

I would like to interest people with another book, which is related to investment but not trading or not technical analyst at all. Intelligent investor, that books is by Benjamin Graham and it is literally "intelligent investor" and it is about value investing and it would help you out a lot.

Maybe not so much in crypto considering we do not have a "value" like stock prices do, they are based on companies and if you read that companies books and basically do a small audit of it and you check the price of that company's stock you can decide if it is undervalued or overvalued and make your moves based on that. However it will not be too huge for crypto investment, you could still decide on some things there but it will not be that much worth for your time if you only care about crypto.

KTChampions

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on December 13, 2020, 03:59:35 PM

Wouldn't a neural network be better suited to be a technical analyst than any human? Technical analysis tells us that the market is full of patterns and it's only a matter of recognizing them, and neural networks are exceptionally good at recognizing patterns if you just feed them the data. How well do the trading bots actually perform compared to humans? Is it worth trying to train a bot yourself, or is it too complicated for someone without a strong background in neural networks?

Of course, neural networks would be the best analysts compared to the coolest professionals among humans. The problem is that the original problem has no solution - you cannot "find a pattern and know the future." Therefore, neural networks will not help here like any other tool.

sayaya17

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This is a good recommendation, especially for those who still do not really understand about analysis techniques,
and no exception for anyone who feels like having it. It doesn’t harm to collect guidebooks like this. Although
actually on the internet also we can get this kind of knowledge. In fact, I have also found threads that discuss
technical analysis in this forum. But everything is going to be very good and be skilled when we practice it a lot on the field.
Because experience is the best teacher. For that one must dare to enter the trading exchange. But by the way,
how much price for a book like this?

hatshepsut93

legendary

Activity: 3024

Merit: 2148

Wouldn't a neural network be better suited to be a technical analyst than any human? Technical analysis tells us that the market is full of patterns and it's only a matter of recognizing them, and neural networks are exceptionally good at recognizing patterns if you just feed them the data. How well do the trading bots actually perform compared to humans? Is it worth trying to train a bot yourself, or is it too complicated for someone without a strong background in neural networks?

virasog

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Quote from: CODE200 on December 07, 2020, 12:16:57 PM

Textbooks I think, won't be that much of a help especially with market analysis. Why? the market is inconsistent and that is enough to tell that there won't be patterns or indicators that will contribute to the outcome. But I'm not saying things are totally nonsense, it is just that fate has a factor in this industry and probably might have a larger 'weight' towards how the market prices will behave. Tho it is not a prohibition but just a subjective claim of the audiences.

Do you know that the knowledge you can get from text books and reading is not comparable to anything including visual videos. Maybe you will start slow by reading the TA books but soon you will become a much better trader. I will prefer reading and learning from the books as we did it in our childhood.

CODE200

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Textbooks I think, won't be that much of a help especially with market analysis. Why? the market is inconsistent and that is enough to tell that there won't be patterns or indicators that will contribute to the outcome. But I'm not saying things are totally nonsense, it is just that fate has a factor in this industry and probably might have a larger 'weight' towards how the market prices will behave. Tho it is not a prohibition but just a subjective claim of the audiences.

Oilacris

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Quote from: Coin_trader on December 05, 2020, 08:58:47 AM

On the bright side, Reading books as a foundation for trading is a good idea. It's just a bit complicated to understand once you are literally new on trading. Enrolling in online class is more efficient way to learn.

This is actually true and i have experienced wayback when i do just start up on doing forex where someone do give out some books for me to read but those things do only messes up
with my mind yet when it comes to terms and technicalities then you would really have a hard time to understand when someone wont really be guiding you.

I do much prefer on things to be seen online or a youtube video course rather than reading a book but of course you should look for online mentors which
are really worth for you time.

You can make yourself to be a better technical analyst but this would still takes time.

Ryker1

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Well, reading the books can definitely give us knowledge about trading and technical analysis though not everything written in the books can be applicable in every trading situation. For some reason when I was still new I felt that I am craving deeper knowledge and ideas in this industry which made me decided to do read books and enroll through online classes. Technical analysis can be learned in several ways, books, online classes, -- and experience. Books and online classes for me are all theoretical for you can't conclude that it is true unless you have proven it yourself through experience. I would opt to read those books for it may still provide me additional knowledge which could be applicable to some situation that I haven't been to yet besides reading books can bring no harm in fact I find it as a good pastime just for me

Roidz

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Being an analyst is not quite an easy thing to do even though it doesn't seem to require hard work but believe me if not all traders are able to read price movements in the market because there are many things that need to be considered by an analyst before making a decision to trade so those traders who have the ability to analyze charts can certainly find out the direction of trends, market sentiment, and key levels that are the limits of important price movements in the market.

militiariko

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I believe that becoming a technical analyst by oneself helps alot; apart from the facts that it boosts a traders confidence; it definitely helps you to take responsibility for every of your trades that wins or trade which you take losses. We must also understand that perfecting the chart analysis does not liberate us from doing proper additional researches. I appreciate the write up and will try to get the book too.

masterzino

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Quote from: adaseb on December 05, 2020, 11:28:50 PM

Quote from: masterzino on December 05, 2020, 11:16:01 AM

Both books are decent. I read them many years ago when I was in the Forex/Stocks trading.

But I think technical analyst is not applicable about crypto as here are much more speculations than 'technical' part. Just follow the trends and be very cautious.

I don't think crypto is any different. Pretty much any markets out there whether its stocks, stock indicies, energy, metals, forex, soybeans, etc. They all pretty much trade the same. Technical analysis works pretty much for all of them and the hit rate might be higher or lower in certain assets but its more or less the same. No method provides 100% accuracy however.

I think the most important is pretty much trends. If there is a trend is fairly easy to trade as long as you follow it. Basically as long as you bought BTC after March crash it would of been very difficult not to make a profit. The stock market is no different. As long as you were long from April/May 2020 you would of made money in the markets and it would of been pretty difficult to lose money unless you did something such as buy Hertz which went bankrupt or trade stock options.

I find the markets to be very very different. Let's look, for example, at Bitcoin and Forex. The leading players are distinct as hell, the news "moves" are entirely different and the speculation is on a completely different level for cryptos.

Yet, I agree with you about the trading and trends - following it is the easiest way.

Fortify

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They say day trading is a fools game now and so few people will ever be successful at it across a wide enough time range that it is pointless to even try. You are up against super computers with mega fast connections directly to the exchanges who are trying to scalp the profit out of every trade that they can. Your best bet is to look at trading with a 3 month plan if you can come up with enough good ideas backed by solid evidence. Ultimately you will do best if you stop day trading and invest in companies to become a long term share holder - reaping the rewards of successful businesses through dividends or reinvested capital.

el kaka22

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I would rather not honestly. Technical analysis is not bad, in fact it is a good skill to have in the crypto world we live in, however it comes with one problem and that problem washes away all the good it could provide; hubris.

People get to egotistical about their own technical analysis that sometimes they can't see any way they could be wrong, they do everything right and claim they can see where the money is directed and make a move accordingly without realizing that their analysis could be wrong, or it could be ignored anyway and turn wrong when it shouldn't. That is why when you have technical analysis skill the idea that "it should do this but there is no guarantee for it" never crosses a veteran TA person, it always feels like "it will do this" and that "will" in there hurts them.

FIFA worldcup

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Instead of learning TA from the books, i will prefer to learn it online. These days there are many good tutorials available on youtube which teaches you the technical Analysis. Also its easy to learn online visually and these videos tutorials are free of cost too.

Topic: Do you want to be a technical analyst yourself? (Read 413 times)