Does a trading strategy becomes obsolete? - page 4.

Kelvinid

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Quote from: Woodrose on December 19, 2022, 11:10:47 AM

I am trying to learn more about trading strategies specially in Technical Analysis. Upon trying different indicators, it comes to my mind that indicators might become an obsolete one day.

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I would say NO. Technical Analysis is still very important in trading, in fact, it is one of the most useful tools to use in trading. It can only be obsolete if everyone is not using it due to it being ineffective but as I see many traders are still using this (even me). Might see some upgrades on the trading strategies and new tools or TA can be upgraded into a more realistic one. But what really matters is how a trader uses TA or if they are really knowledgeable enough to use it. Otherwise, no matter how many trading tools and strategies are used, it is never profitable anymore if you can't do it in the right way.

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Dont know on why they do make use of the word obsolete which is that understandable that it wont really be that relevant.Why it has come to be obsolete consider these things arent that precise thing for us to
depend on?
Its true that things turns out to be obsolete is on the time that you cant already make out some analysis out of these indicators or tools which are freely to be used by someone.
It is really just depending on how you would gonna use it towards on guessing on what are the probabilities of next possible movement.

maybe just the wrong choice of words. strategies that have been used for several years will still be suitable because these strategies are already the best to implement. just make improvements to some indicators that can produce a better strategy. Those who cannot develop and cannot make a good strategy will feel that these indicators are no longer relevant, even though they are the only ones who have not been able to develop them.

Quote from: harizen on December 20, 2022, 06:35:42 PM

The market is unpredictable, therefore what indicators really indicates is obviously not 100% accurate will happened. Even if we know how to determine if it is overbought or oversold, do you think the majority will do the necessary actions to take advantage of that market scenario?

The majority of actions will never be the same, because trading using technical analysis is very complex, it will also be influenced by one's mentality in making decisions on trades. There's no point in knowing overbought or oversold if you can't take appropriate action.

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The market is unpredictable, therefore what indicators really indicates is obviously not 100% accurate will happened. Even if we know how to determine if it is overbought or oversold, do you think the majority will do the necessary actions to take advantage of that market scenario?

Our winning actions depend on our own approach to a given market situation.

It's useless that we know how to analyze something but in return no actions on our part.

kamvreto

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no trading strategy will become obsolete, unless you upgrade your own skills. Indicators are also always updated regarding functions and some necessary updates.
Trading strategies with technical analysis can be combined in such a way that many types of strategies can be generated.
But some professional traders usually use the same trading strategy to determine market conditions, and maybe only some of them upgrade. What becomes obsolete is not a trading strategy, but our ability to process indicators into a strategy that needs to be improved.

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Quote from: abel1337 on December 19, 2022, 05:15:03 PM

Quote from: boyptc on December 19, 2022, 03:25:08 PM

Nah, they won't become obsolete.

No matter what happens to the market, these strategies will remain and will still be applicable mostly to the markets where it's been mostly used. That's why even in other markets, these have been tried and seen to be a good indicator.

It's just so happen that there are too many of them and you've got to choose what's proven to be good and effective. They might not work for sometime and that's why there are other strategies you can work for.

I agree, The current strategies won't die even if the market scenario have change especially if we talk about TA and FA. New strategies is born from time to time and we have the privilege's to asses the situation and choose what kind of strategy would be more effective and accurate for the given situation. We all have a bias strategy for each market scenario and I believe that most of us follow that kind of strategy every time since the accuracy rate and results satisfies us.

Accuracy rate for most strategies lies on how good the trader is.

But yeah, these are just guides and they'll be there no matter how old or new a market will be. Someone can boast how good his accuracy are if he's able to make more wins.

And that's the bias that he can show to the other traders because he's just too good with his trades. Well, it won't be always on the winning side, so strategies do upgrade too.

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Quote from: Woodrose on December 19, 2022, 11:10:47 AM

-snip-

I think trading strategy becoming obsolete depends on what strategy you adopted. Because if you don't take the strategy where it needs to be taken, it will obsolete later. And I think it's best to depend on yourself for strategy. I don't really know much about technical analysis but I think read different articles instead of following all those gurujis.

Adbitco

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Is not obsolete and therefore you can't do without these indicators naturally these are mathematically analysis that checkmats the price movement, the volume and many more. So as a trader you definitely needs trading indicators to determine or to judge your entry and exit point while trading, most people aren't that good with this indicator.

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I guess so. I take it that if you keep using the same strategy over and over, it tends to wear out at the end af time. Especially, if you are going for the same strategy in front of the same players. That way, they will end up umderstanding your strategy and it wont pay off anymore. The same can be true for a specific casino. If you are constantly using the same strategy in the same casino, they'll end up knowing how to make it fail.

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Quote from: Woodrose on December 19, 2022, 11:10:47 AM

Now, many Trading Gurus are teaching the best strategy to use. Wherein fact, strategies are becoming obsolete as time goes by. If you are new in trading world, definitely you will be eaten by those traders who know a lot in trading.

What these trading gurus should be teaching should be how to identify and know when your strategy is becoming obsolete for you to know when to change it, not teaching one strategy that will fail in the nearest future. Strategies are based on current events, and because current events are not predictable and always changing, there is a need to always change your trading strategy. If you are losing money in trading, it is an indication that your strategy is already on the way to becoming obsolete, there is a need for you to change it.

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Quote from: Woodrose on December 19, 2022, 11:10:47 AM

I am trying to learn more about trading strategies specially in Technical Analysis. Upon trying different indicators, it comes to my mind that indicators might become an obsolete one day.

This is why you need study the market behavior to understand what kind of trading strategy that suits a particular market , therefore when you have only one trading strategy, this is the kind of things you can experience because no strategy works 100%, sometimes they begin to lag as market changes.

Quote from: Woodrose on December 19, 2022, 11:10:47 AM

Just imagine if all of us knows how to use RSI and MACD. We all know when it is overbought or oversold. Therefore, we already know as well when it is good to enter and exit in market. Since we all knew about, RSI is not a good indicator anymore and many of us will find a new indicator that will provide us more details than the latter one.

There are so many indicators out there , and not all trader use RSI as you think, Too we have different Time frames in the market and traders trade base on different time frame, and so is the RSI effected by different times and hence doesn't go overbought/oversold at same time in all time frames.

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If you were to read and learn about it a lot, you would know that there are different strategies that are applicable to different market situations and you need to have those fundamentals in order to be successful in trading. I don’t think it will become obsolete, but it will be adaptable to what the market is.

Possible strategies can become different by adding different indicators to the set up. It’s ideal to be consistent and make sure that you are emotionless when trading that’s why it’s essential, in my opinion, that you use a bot like Gunbot.

maydna

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I agree that one day a strategy can become obsolete due to developments in the market. To anticipate this, we must continue to learn and trade. It is a learning process that does not stop unless you really stop trading.

But for now, those strategies still work and can give you an opportunity to know when you can trade or enter the market. Maybe many people know how to use each indicator but not many can really use it properly because we still see many people who experience losses. Trading is not only learning about strategies, indicators, and crypto news, but learning to trade is also about learning self-control. Maybe these people don't know how to control themselves properly even though they are experts at using all the indicators.

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Quote from: Woodrose on December 19, 2022, 11:10:47 AM

I am trying to learn more about trading strategies specially in Technical Analysis. Upon trying different indicators, it comes to my mind that indicators might become an obsolete one day.

I don't see this happening because indicators are the fundamental tools for analysis for investors and traders but people may combine new trading technology that will be developed in the future with indicators because I hear an article that says Ai technology that will predict the cryptocurrency market price will be developed in the future and if we look into the performance and innovations in the Ai setting it's possible that this will happen in the future.

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Quote from: Woodrose on December 20, 2022, 06:57:03 AM

What I am trying to say is that if many people know already how to use a certain indicator then I think it is not useful anymore. That is the idea of trading.

After having done years of stock market and around 6years in crypto, one thing I can say for sure, indicators and technical analysis are a pseudo-science and they can only predict what the market is undergoing at an instant. How you interpret this data is upto you. But this does not mean that a up or down movement is going to happen right now or sometime later.

If what you are inferring would have been true, then some trader would always be making huge profits but this is not the case, even veteran traders have losses and they have learnt how to cope with that.

Quote

You have to know how to use indicators in order for to have an edge in other traders.

Nope. This statement propagates the idea of "best possible indicator" which is a flawed concept, but often marketed by these "gurus". This is not a game of win or lose, it is a game of patience and knowing when and how you place the trade.

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Quote from: palle11 on December 20, 2022, 08:52:55 AM

Quote from: Wapfika on December 20, 2022, 08:37:58 AM

Isn’t it our advantage if everyone is using same indicator and using it as reference for there trading strategy since we are all buying at the same time which will create a strong market buy pressure to pump the price?

If this is possible then who will lose? If everyone understand when to make profit then nobody will lose including you, or you enjoy to lose? The beauty of the market is the loss and profit without this it is not trading and if you take that away from it nobody will go into it. People go into trading with the hope that they will be better profit takers but unfortunately it is not like that because of different interactive factors in the market.

I don't think all traders will use the same indicator but there will be traders who likes to separate their selves from the crowd and will use less popular or harder indicators. In trading, there must always be a loser more than the winner or vice versa. There is no way that all are going to go in one direction as the market will lost its balance and will not be as good as before anymore.

As for the question of the OP, my response would be yes. There will always be a bad trading strategy. It may work at first or on some other times but the rest are just simply a loss. Now is there a trader who will like to use it and just incur a loss? I guess no but we must move on and make another working start.

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Quote from: Wapfika on December 20, 2022, 08:37:58 AM

Isn’t it our advantage if everyone is using same indicator and using it as reference for there trading strategy since we are all buying at the same time which will create a strong market buy pressure to pump the price?

If this is possible then who will lose? If everyone understand when to make profit then nobody will lose including you, or you enjoy to lose? The beauty of the market is the loss and profit without this it is not trading and if you take that away from it nobody will go into it. People go into trading with the hope that they will be better profit takers but unfortunately it is not like that because of different interactive factors in the market.

Wapfika

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Quote from: Woodrose on December 19, 2022, 11:10:47 AM

Just imagine if all of us knows how to use RSI and MACD. We all know when it is overbought or oversold. Therefore, we already know as well when it is good to enter and exit in market. Since we all knew about, RSI is not a good indicator anymore and many of us will find a new indicator that will provide us more details than the latter one.

Isn’t it our advantage if everyone is using same indicator and using it as reference for there trading strategy since we are all buying at the same time which will create a strong market buy pressure to pump the price? The reason why the crypto price is very unstable is because many traders using random indicators that gives different signal result.

If we are only using same indicator then crypto trading will unite in terms of buying and selling crypto.

palle11

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Quote from: inthelongrun on December 20, 2022, 07:56:53 AM

But big news like the bankruptcy of FTX is probably the best and most reliable indicator.

Funny you here. What do you really mean ? So which direction are you expecting the price to go from your analysis of the FTX exchange scam? Yes investors expected that price will drop but yet we are not seeing that happen so far. So what is your analytical expectations of FTX scam from what you see and your prediction from it buddy? Grin

inthelongrun

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That is why I gave up trading daily. Your indicators may work until they stopped working later on. More and more indicators are developed and some others are not available on tradingview and other popular live chart providers including exchanges. But big news like the bankruptcy of FTX is probably the best and most reliable indicator. I opted to invest long-term and do a DCA rather than stress myself in the market. Maybe I will be back into day trading when the market is back, which I expect in the year of the halving and its following year which are the trend in bitcoin over the years.

palle11

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Quote from: Woodrose on December 20, 2022, 06:57:03 AM

I think you didn't get what I am trying to say.

Yes, I could say that most indicators work well until now and all of them are not 100% accurate. What I am trying to say is that if many people know already how to use a certain indicator then I think it is not useful anymore. That is the idea of trading. You have to know how to use indicators in order for to have an edge in other traders.

Anyway, I think I would further explain my part if I will read a lot in trading. Thank you for your opinion.

I understand what you are trying to say. You are saying if every trader know and understand an indicator then every one won't make a mistake to lose his money. For instance if every trader know that RSI overbought or over sold is exhausted, the everyone knows the reversal time, I believe this is an example of what you are saying but I use to think like that too sometimes in the past but I tell you it is not possible for everyone to understand a particular way of indicator just like it is not possible for everyone to be profitable or profiting every time or the same time, you must have winners and losers differently at the same time.

Quote from: Woodrose on December 19, 2022, 11:10:47 AM

I am trying to learn more about trading strategies specially in Technical Analysis. Upon trying different indicators, it comes to my mind that indicators might become an obsolete one day.

Indicators don't become obsolete because they are already made like that to be like that for you to change it from default settings or leave it that way depending on your strategy and the way or time you use it on. For example I don't see what is obsolete in bb, SMA, RSI,MACD, fractals or parabolic SAR. It is only you to work on it to change the settings and the time frame you use it.

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