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Topic: Does halving really create deflation? - page 5. (Read 1214 times)

hero member
Activity: 2100
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Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
November 28, 2019, 09:49:24 AM
#50
Deflation is not caused by halving (I mean maybe it is but that is not the topic) deflation is created because in reality bitcoin gets higher in value since there is less of it all the time.

There are always some people who send bitcoin to some unknown wallet or somewhere wrong and it is gone forever, people always say the max bitcoin there will be is 21 million but there must be at least a million bitcoin that is gone already to places that is no longer in use, sure if those people ever comeback they will be able to use it but more often than not there are not that many people that come back to it. So long story short deflation does exist but it is not because halving, halving only excels it and that's it, there is a deflation because instead of printing dollars like deal, we lose bitcoins instead.
From the start, bitcoin was present in a limited amount that is 21 million and out of which few coins also suffer loss due to blunders of holders. This limited amount automatically makes bitcoin deflationary in nature as we cannot increase its amount like governments do by printing more currency. Halving has nothing to do with deflationary. It is just a process where rewards get halved when 210,000 blocks are hit.
sr. member
Activity: 1988
Merit: 453
November 28, 2019, 08:14:32 AM
#49
I didnt think that halving affects the bitcoin nor market value, years ago as we can observe, the effect of halving makes the price of bitcoin increase, so when it happens, we can see that bitcoin can make ATH or atlease the price will goes up, we can possibly think that by next year it could be a good year in bitcoin.

Halving can have some impact, but I am afraid that this time the impact will be more limited when compared to the previous two events. The first thing to consider is that the prices have already jumped by almost 200% so far this year, probably in anticipation for the upcoming halving event. And secondly, the ratio of annual mining output to the total circulating supply will be much lower this time.
sr. member
Activity: 882
Merit: 269
November 28, 2019, 07:23:49 AM
#48
As such there should not be a problem of deflation with Bitcoin, because the supply is increasing and not decreasing. Deflation can only happen if there is a decline in the total supply. That is theoretically possible, given the large number of lost coins (i.e coins that can't be spent, because no one is having the private key to access them). People are more careful with the private keys, but even now a lot of coins are getting unusable every month, either due to deaths (such as the case of Gerald Cotton) or due to carelessness.
I didnt think that halving affects the bitcoin nor market value, years ago as we can observe, the effect of halving makes the price of bitcoin increase, so when it happens, we can see that bitcoin can make ATH or atlease the price will goes up, we can possibly think that by next year it could be a good year in bitcoin.
full member
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Decentralized Ascending Auctions on Blockchain
November 28, 2019, 06:59:27 AM
#47
not certain, halving can't be a reference for bitcoin deflation. because bitcoin runs according to supply and demand. but that can also happen, when mining becomes more difficult and bitcoin is increasingly scarce because there is too much holding. and waiting for prices to go up high. it should theoretically be possible. deflation can be made by halving.
I greatly appreciate your comments. This is one of those ideas that is quite easy to understand and it really impresses. I have long thought that there is no deflation mechanism in bitcoin, only supply and demand creating higher and higher prices.
So let's try to think the opposite, until one day people don't see the value of bitcoin anymore, is the bitcoin halving event still important?
full member
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PrimeDAO - An Adoption Engine for Open Finance
November 28, 2019, 06:44:47 AM
#46
I think this is because most people lack economic knowledge. they usually only talk about deflation but really don't understand what it is. For me, there was no deflation in bitcoin. The Halving event only shows that the supply of bitcoin is getting lower and lower and forcing more people to buy bitcoin. Since then, the price of bitcoin has been rising, it is due to the effects of supply and demand and deflation is unreasonable.
legendary
Activity: 3010
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Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
November 28, 2019, 04:58:07 AM
#45
Not really, there are many factors that could cause deflation and halving is just one of them. You see all those coin that have burning every few months aren't really increasing their price. People are hyped with the halving but it's actually just the halvening of mining rewards and in my opinion will not do significant change. But, if people are hyped up with the halving it can for sure create deflation because people believe that bitcoin will become scarce and people will raise their price standart once halvening commence.
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1145
November 28, 2019, 04:19:12 AM
#44
not certain, halving can't be a reference for bitcoin deflation. because bitcoin runs according to supply and demand. but that can also happen, when mining becomes more difficult and bitcoin is increasingly scarce because there is too much holding. and waiting for prices to go up high. it should theoretically be possible. deflation can be made by halving.
sr. member
Activity: 742
Merit: 397
November 28, 2019, 03:06:18 AM
#43
It really does. Halving creates deflation because it makes mining even harder because the difficulty after halving will become higher and the reward will be half. If the demand will increase after the halving then it will drive the price higher because the demand will become higher than the supply which results for investors and traders to buy at a more expensive price.
sr. member
Activity: 938
Merit: 250
November 28, 2019, 01:19:29 AM
#42
deflation is the opposite of inflation. inflation is caused by the amount of currency circulating too much while deflation of the money supply is reduced. in my opinion when bitcoin is reduced by half, bitcoin will also experience deflation. and because of this deflation the reason might increase. and if we look at the history of bitcoin. bitcoin always increases after being reduced by half.
sr. member
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www.Artemis.co
November 28, 2019, 01:12:46 AM
#41
We can’t really assure that the next halving will deflate the Bitcoins price however the market will still dictate its price. Though its scarce but if the demand is low what can we expect, I think no matter how many halving will occur high demand and adoption is still best factors we depend on.
hero member
Activity: 1890
Merit: 831
November 28, 2019, 12:53:52 AM
#40
Actually I think it depends on the direct community at that time halving can actually create inflation too, it can shoot up the prices , if in the market you saw something that you like and needed and there is only one left and there are like 5 people ,you guys are ofcourse gonna fight for it and..it would actually increase the value of that particular thing ; this could go both ways in my opinion .
But instead for bitcoins it was the bad one apparently Cry
Hopefully in the upcoming days it will recover.
member
Activity: 648
Merit: 10
November 27, 2019, 11:09:00 PM
#39
hey guys, i'm quite serious on this topic because of the confusing people when talking about Bitcoin "deflation". As far as I understand, the deflation is that goods are cheaper than they are on time or because there is no need to buy goods or the supply of money gets lower.
So for Bitcoin, why is there a deflation? Although I know that miners will find it harder to mine bitcoins after every Halving event, the value of our goods stays the same and is based on fiat money. Bitcoin's price is still being manipulated and it is not necessarily a strong growth after halving. or the best example is Litecoin. after halving, its price is halved instead of rising higher.
So, the question is, does the Halving event actually cause deflation, or is it just some bullshit theory?
Ps: I highly appreciate the comments with sincere contributions. Thanks
Still not have good effect with bitcoin halving at next year, bitcoin price still down and keep low day by day. I think when bitcoin halving day come several weeks later will have good and positive impact for bitcoin raise with higher price, maybe wait again for three months later to see bitcoin and altcoin back to higher price and give bitcoin member motivate for investing again with crypto.
sr. member
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Undeads.com - P2E Runner Game
November 27, 2019, 10:47:14 PM
#38
depends on the coin itself, for example if shitcoin does half It will not give any effect because initially it's a coin that is not worth it, I do not know the case that occurs in LTC.
Then for manipulation if it is true the price of the coin is controlled then halving will not be too influential.
Inflation makes the value of money to fall, while halving is the opposite.
hero member
Activity: 1764
Merit: 584
November 27, 2019, 09:22:11 PM
#37
Even if the demand for bitcoin remain stable, I wouldn't really say that halvings cause deflation for it. Yes, there would be less bitcoins mined but it's still adding new bitcoins into circulation. Main difference is unlike fiat, you can just pump new bitcoins into circulation to increase inflation so in a sense, yes it's the opposite of inflation.

So in your opinion, deflation will not happen now, but when the supply of bitcoin is fully mined and the demand is high, then deflation will occur?

Deflation will occur when the number of new coins being minted < the number of coins being lost. That point in time technically can't be known since nobody knows for sure when coins have been lost. However, it's likely to take place many decades before the supply is fully distributed.

By 2070, there will only be ~80 new coins minted per year. It's likely Bitcoin will be deflationary by this point, and perhaps a good deal sooner.

I think many of the bitcoins lost was from its first decade, when people still don't take it seriously. I know someone who got gifted a paper wallet which he promptly lost because he wasn't thinking much about it. Then he saw bitcoin in the news around 2016 and realized he used to have some.

These days with people being more careful about handling them, simple errors like forgetting the password to an email/exchange would probably be fewer and there is less and less bitcoin getting "lost".
hero member
Activity: 1974
Merit: 502
Vave.com - Crypto Casino
November 27, 2019, 08:56:37 PM
#36
As such there should not be a problem of deflation with Bitcoin, because the supply is increasing and not decreasing. Deflation can only happen if there is a decline in the total supply. That is theoretically possible, given the large number of lost coins (i.e coins that can't be spent, because no one is having the private key to access them). People are more careful with the private keys, but even now a lot of coins are getting unusable every month, either due to deaths (such as the case of Gerald Cotton) or due to carelessness.

In that case of deaths, of course untouched coins remained non moving because it's still present in the circulation. Good thing for bitcoin's supply that it was still growing because of those reasons. In case there's a secondary owner of that private access, that's the time those coins will be potentially moving and being spent if ever the main owner will be gone. Always keep the access keys secure, and  don't even expose that to anyone whose cannot be trusted.
legendary
Activity: 3346
Merit: 1352
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
November 27, 2019, 08:11:09 PM
#35
As such there should not be a problem of deflation with Bitcoin, because the supply is increasing and not decreasing. Deflation can only happen if there is a decline in the total supply. That is theoretically possible, given the large number of lost coins (i.e coins that can't be spent, because no one is having the private key to access them). People are more careful with the private keys, but even now a lot of coins are getting unusable every month, either due to deaths (such as the case of Gerald Cotton) or due to carelessness.
legendary
Activity: 2730
Merit: 1288
November 27, 2019, 07:49:32 PM
#34
hey guys, i'm quite serious on this topic because of the confusing people when talking about Bitcoin "deflation". As far as I understand, the deflation is that goods are cheaper than they are on time or because there is no need to buy goods or the supply of money gets lower.
So for Bitcoin, why is there a deflation? Although I know that miners will find it harder to mine bitcoins after every Halving event, the value of our goods stays the same and is based on fiat money. Bitcoin's price is still being manipulated and it is not necessarily a strong growth after halving. or the best example is Litecoin. after halving, its price is halved instead of rising higher.
So, the question is, does the Halving event actually cause deflation, or is it just some bullshit theory?
Ps: I highly appreciate the comments with sincere contributions. Thanks


Bitcoins price deflation happens every second day when price of Bitcoin goes up compared to USD. Inflation happens next day when price goes back down.  
Emission inflation of Bitcoin is currently around 3.5% and at halving will go to 1.8%. There is no emission deflation. Supply of Bitcoins is inflating 3.5% a year.  
legendary
Activity: 2268
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Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
November 27, 2019, 02:07:49 PM
#33
Halving is litelrally the ONLY factor influencing the supply of bitcoin.
LOL, chill mate Grin
<...>

I am chill, I am the king of chill!
Lol, I didn’t want to nitpick or seem angry. But I just wanted to make sure everyone knows what we are talking about without mixing concept!

Anyway, point taken!
legendary
Activity: 2590
Merit: 3015
Welt Am Draht
November 27, 2019, 02:02:22 PM
#32
Halving is litelrally the ONLY factor influencing the supply of bitcoin.

I reckon people mix up the concepts of supply and production too often. There's always enough supply if the price is right. Mined coins are likely to be more available than existing coins but many people are sitting on those existing coins until temptation strikes.
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1521
November 27, 2019, 01:58:36 PM
#31
So in your opinion, deflation will not happen now, but when the supply of bitcoin is fully mined and the demand is high, then deflation will occur?

Deflation will occur when the number of new coins being minted < the number of coins being lost. That point in time technically can't be known since nobody knows for sure when coins have been lost. However, it's likely to take place many decades before the supply is fully distributed.

By 2070, there will only be ~80 new coins minted per year. It's likely Bitcoin will be deflationary by this point, and perhaps a good deal sooner.
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