Does investing on a bitcoin dice bankroll a good idea?

Sarthak

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Quote from: shulio on April 17, 2015, 10:35:43 AM

Quote from: Sarthak on April 17, 2015, 10:31:40 AM

Quote from: ndnh on April 17, 2015, 09:33:39 AM

Quote from: Sarthak on April 17, 2015, 08:09:00 AM

Here's a question I got for you guys:

For eg JD's Bankroll is 0 (Don't Laugh, Its just an example)! I invest 1 BTC there, And another gambler comes in and loses 1 BTC! So I get 1.9 BTC and 0.1 goes to dooglus... But I think the odds aren't on my side if the gambler knows when to stop!
The chances of gambler to double his money is 49.5%.. My odds are 50.5%

But if the gambler wins he gets 2x of the bet amount i.e. 2 BTC
But if I(house) win/s, I just get 90% profit i.e. 1.9 BTC

So isn't it better to gamble yourself and stop on the right time rather than investing on the house?

I didn't get your point.

Gambling has negative EV.

Investing in the bankroll has poitive EV.

How can negative be more than positive Huh

I don't really know how to explain but I will try my best:

If I invest 1 BTC in JD which currently has 0 BTC invested, the site's bankroll will be 1 BTC.
A roller comes in and bet 1 BTC at 49.5% and he will earn 1 BTC if he wins.
On the other hand, My(House's) odds of winning is 50.5% and if I(House) win, House earns 1 BTC profit but only 0.9 BTC profit will come to my pocket as 10% winning is taken by the site!

Roller bets at 49.5% and gets 1 BTC if he/she wins.
Investor's odds of winning the gambler is 50.5% and gets only 0.9 BTC profit if he/she wins.

So the question is Am I really profiting? Is it better to gamble than to invest?

the best possible explanation is my answer I guess, You cant win 1 BTC in 1x roll if the entire bankroll is 1 BTC, since casino will be limiting it to 1 % of their bankroll, read this up, You missed my post, and by keep on limiting to 1 % of the bankroll, it will takes you several winning before you could drain up the entire bankroll.

Quote

good point, but you forgot to consider that a gambler seldom stop if he is in profit already, he might continue to go, this is better for the house in long term since there is a 1 % house edge everytime a gambler play, and it is notlikely that you will bust your 100% bankroll in one go, most sites allow 1 % of the bankroll as the max win, so if you got 1 btc, then max win will be 0.01 and max bet will be 0.005 with 2x chance for payout

You're funny lol! That was just an example and I well know that there is a max profit in dice site

Anyways, it was an explanation for ndnhc as he didn't get my question

shulio

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Quote from: Sarthak on April 17, 2015, 10:31:40 AM

Quote from: ndnh on April 17, 2015, 09:33:39 AM

Quote from: Sarthak on April 17, 2015, 08:09:00 AM

Here's a question I got for you guys:

For eg JD's Bankroll is 0 (Don't Laugh, Its just an example)! I invest 1 BTC there, And another gambler comes in and loses 1 BTC! So I get 1.9 BTC and 0.1 goes to dooglus... But I think the odds aren't on my side if the gambler knows when to stop!
The chances of gambler to double his money is 49.5%.. My odds are 50.5%

But if the gambler wins he gets 2x of the bet amount i.e. 2 BTC
But if I(house) win/s, I just get 90% profit i.e. 1.9 BTC

So isn't it better to gamble yourself and stop on the right time rather than investing on the house?

I didn't get your point.

Gambling has negative EV.

Investing in the bankroll has poitive EV.

How can negative be more than positive Huh

I don't really know how to explain but I will try my best:

If I invest 1 BTC in JD which currently has 0 BTC invested, the site's bankroll will be 1 BTC.
A roller comes in and bet 1 BTC at 49.5% and he will earn 1 BTC if he wins.
On the other hand, My(House's) odds of winning is 50.5% and if I(House) win, House earns 1 BTC profit but only 0.9 BTC profit will come to my pocket as 10% winning is taken by the site!

Roller bets at 49.5% and gets 1 BTC if he/she wins.
Investor's odds of winning the gambler is 50.5% and gets only 0.9 BTC profit if he/she wins.

So the question is Am I really profiting? Is it better to gamble than to invest?

the best possible explanation is my answer I guess, You cant win 1 BTC in 1x roll if the entire bankroll is 1 BTC, since casino will be limiting it to 1 % of their bankroll, read this up, You missed my post, and by keep on limiting to 1 % of the bankroll, it will takes you several winning before you could drain up the entire bankroll.

Quote

good point, but you forgot to consider that a gambler seldom stop if he is in profit already, he might continue to go, this is better for the house in long term since there is a 1 % house edge everytime a gambler play, and it is notlikely that you will bust your 100% bankroll in one go, most sites allow 1 % of the bankroll as the max win, so if you got 1 btc, then max win will be 0.01 and max bet will be 0.005 with 2x chance for payout

Sarthak

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Quote from: ndnh on April 17, 2015, 09:33:39 AM

Quote from: Sarthak on April 17, 2015, 08:09:00 AM

Here's a question I got for you guys:

For eg JD's Bankroll is 0 (Don't Laugh, Its just an example)! I invest 1 BTC there, And another gambler comes in and loses 1 BTC! So I get 1.9 BTC and 0.1 goes to dooglus... But I think the odds aren't on my side if the gambler knows when to stop!
The chances of gambler to double his money is 49.5%.. My odds are 50.5%

But if the gambler wins he gets 2x of the bet amount i.e. 2 BTC
But if I(house) win/s, I just get 90% profit i.e. 1.9 BTC

So isn't it better to gamble yourself and stop on the right time rather than investing on the house?

I didn't get your point.

Gambling has negative EV.

Investing in the bankroll has poitive EV.

How can negative be more than positive Huh

I don't really know how to explain but I will try my best:

If I invest 1 BTC in JD which currently has 0 BTC invested, the site's bankroll will be 1 BTC.
A roller comes in and bet 1 BTC at 49.5% and he will earn 1 BTC if he wins.
On the other hand, My(House's) odds of winning is 50.5% and if I(House) win, House earns 1 BTC profit but only 0.9 BTC profit will come to my pocket as 10% winning is taken by the site!

Roller bets at 49.5% and gets 1 BTC if he/she wins.
Investor's odds of winning the gambler is 50.5% and gets only 0.9 BTC profit if he/she wins.

So the question is Am I really profiting? Is it better to gamble than to invest?

ranochigo

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In most cases, investments in casinos can be profitable but not in the short term however. Depending on the house edge, if the house edge is 1%, the overall expected profit would be 1%. That is if no one comes and wipe a huge percent of the bank roll off and the casinos have no exploits or suddenly run off. The expected profit would still be 1% in the long term but it would be a very long term.

Quote from: Sarthak on April 17, 2015, 08:09:00 AM

Here's a question I got for you guys:

For eg JD's Bankroll is 0 (Don't Laugh, Its just an example)! I invest 1 BTC there, And another gambler comes in and loses 1 BTC! So I get 1.9 BTC and 0.1 goes to dooglus... But I think the odds aren't on my side if the gambler knows when to stop!
The chances of gambler to double his money is 49.5%.. My odds are 50.5%

But if the gambler wins he gets 2x of the bet amount i.e. 2 BTC
But if I(house) win/s, I just get 90% profit i.e. 1.9 BTC

So isn't it better to gamble yourself and stop on the right time rather than investing on the house?

The chances of you losing is much higher than the chances of you winning.The problem is most people don't know when to stop when they win a bet. Your bets may be a loss for 32 times(worst case scenario) that would be more risky than investing in the house. And if Nakowa or similar person comes back and does this, you would end up with huge profits.

srgkrgkj

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Quote from: ndnh on April 17, 2015, 09:33:39 AM

Quote from: Sarthak on April 17, 2015, 08:09:00 AM

Here's a question I got for you guys:

For eg JD's Bankroll is 0 (Don't Laugh, Its just an example)! I invest 1 BTC there, And another gambler comes in and loses 1 BTC! So I get 1.9 BTC and 0.1 goes to dooglus... But I think the odds aren't on my side if the gambler knows when to stop!
The chances of gambler to double his money is 49.5%.. My odds are 50.5%

But if the gambler wins he gets 2x of the bet amount i.e. 2 BTC
But if I(house) win/s, I just get 90% profit i.e. 1.9 BTC

So isn't it better to gamble yourself and stop on the right time rather than investing on the house?

I didn't get your point.

Gambling has negative EV.

Investing in the bankroll has poitive EV.

How can negative be more than positive Huh

I think he means in the short temr a gambler can get lucky and eat away at the BR of a site and cost investors Huh

ndnh

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Quote from: Sarthak on April 17, 2015, 08:09:00 AM

Here's a question I got for you guys:

For eg JD's Bankroll is 0 (Don't Laugh, Its just an example)! I invest 1 BTC there, And another gambler comes in and loses 1 BTC! So I get 1.9 BTC and 0.1 goes to dooglus... But I think the odds aren't on my side if the gambler knows when to stop!
The chances of gambler to double his money is 49.5%.. My odds are 50.5%

But if the gambler wins he gets 2x of the bet amount i.e. 2 BTC
But if I(house) win/s, I just get 90% profit i.e. 1.9 BTC

So isn't it better to gamble yourself and stop on the right time rather than investing on the house?

I didn't get your point.

Gambling has negative EV.

Investing in the bankroll has poitive EV.

How can negative be more than positive Huh

shulio

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Quote from: Sarthak on April 17, 2015, 08:09:00 AM

Here's a question I got for you guys:

For eg JD's Bankroll is 0 (Don't Laugh, Its just an example)! I invest 1 BTC there, And another gambler comes in and loses 1 BTC! So I get 1.9 BTC and 0.1 goes to dooglus... But I think the odds aren't on my side if the gambler knows when to stop!
The chances of gambler to double his money is 49.5%.. My odds are 50.5%

But if the gambler wins he gets 2x of the bet amount i.e. 2 BTC
But if I(house) win/s, I just get 90% profit i.e. 1.9 BTC

So isn't it better to gamble yourself and stop on the right time rather than investing on the house?

good point, but you forgot to consider that a gambler seldom stop if he is in profit already, he might continue to go, this is better for the house in long term since there is a 1 % house edge everytime a gambler play, and it is notlikely that you will bust your 100% bankroll in one go, most sites allow 1 % of the bankroll as the max win, so if you got 1 btc, then max win will be 0.01 and max bet will be 0.005 with 2x chance for payout

fox19891989

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Quote from: Sarthak on April 17, 2015, 08:09:00 AM

Here's a question I got for you guys:

For eg JD's Bankroll is 0 (Don't Laugh, Its just an example)! I invest 1 BTC there, And another gambler comes in and loses 1 BTC! So I get 1.9 BTC and 0.1 goes to dooglus... But I think the odds aren't on my side if the gambler knows when to stop!
The chances of gambler to double his money is 49.5%.. My odds are 50.5%

But if the gambler wins he gets 2x of the bet amount i.e. 2 BTC
But if I(house) win/s, I just get 90% profit i.e. 1.9 BTC

So isn't it better to gamble yourself and stop on the right time rather than investing on the house?

No, you are wrong. "gamble yourself and stop on the right time" is very very very difficult, or everyone will be a winner, we may lose all of your money in the long term, but house is always winning in the long term because they have 1% house edge.

Sarthak

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Here's a question I got for you guys:

For eg JD's Bankroll is 0 (Don't Laugh, Its just an example)! I invest 1 BTC there, And another gambler comes in and loses 1 BTC! So I get 1.9 BTC and 0.1 goes to dooglus... But I think the odds aren't on my side if the gambler knows when to stop!
The chances of gambler to double his money is 49.5%.. My odds are 50.5%

But if the gambler wins he gets 2x of the bet amount i.e. 2 BTC
But if I(house) win/s, I just get 90% profit i.e. 1.9 BTC

So isn't it better to gamble yourself and stop on the right time rather than investing on the house?

srgkrgkj

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Quote from: shulio on April 17, 2015, 07:56:31 AM

Quote from: srgkrgkj on April 17, 2015, 07:48:58 AM

personally ive made some profit off investing 0.1 on satoshidice Cheesy

so making profit does depend on the site and the volume Cheesy

How many does you invest in the site and whats the kelly for your investment? It will only depends on the volume, and you should consider to add some luck factor there as even there is a house edge for the players, there is no doubt that the entire bankroll could be wiped out once someone got lucky enough or "cheated" (huflepuff)

hmm true it does depend on luck so your investment value can decrease :O its basically gambling against a gambler Cheesy

shulio

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Quote from: srgkrgkj on April 17, 2015, 07:48:58 AM

personally ive made some profit off investing 0.1 on satoshidice Cheesy

so making profit does depend on the site and the volume Cheesy

How many does you invest in the site and whats the kelly for your investment? It will only depends on the volume, and you should consider to add some luck factor there as even there is a house edge for the players, there is no doubt that the entire bankroll could be wiped out once someone got lucky enough or "cheated" (huflepuff)

srgkrgkj

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personally ive made some profit off investing 0.1 on satoshidice Cheesy

so making profit does depend on the site and the volume Cheesy

WhatTheGox

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Quote from: thebenjamincode on April 17, 2015, 03:13:33 AM

hi there everyone
i just need some advice because i would like to invest at satoshidice and i would like to know your opinion whether it is good to invest there or not?

mod note: ref removed

I'd probably pick a high volume dice site to invest in since high volume is key to keeping you investment going up steady vs big swings from the house having bad days.

Sarthak

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Quote from: Josepht on April 17, 2015, 03:24:11 AM

Considering the fact that they share only 50% of the house edge with the investors, I'd say no.
On the other hand: the house edge is quite high, so 50% of that is still a lot.

I don't think that satoshidice has a lot of volume. I think investing in sites with higher volume is a better thing to do.

Volume really makes no difference. Satoshidice has the highest house edge compared to other major competitors like Just Dice and Primedice! That for sure increases your chance of getting more profit! But Investing in JD isn't a bad idea until big whales like Nakowa get really really lucky

shulio

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Quote from: thebenjamincode on April 17, 2015, 03:13:33 AM

hi there everyone
i just need some advice because i would like to invest at satoshidice and i would like to know your opinion whether it is good to invest there or not?

mod note: ref removed

I do think personally that it is good decision to invest in there because the site is on the new management, someone who buy the site from the previous owner spend alot to run the site, and it will take a while for him to recover what he paid for the previous owner, so it is a good decision, but always know that there are always a risk no matter which site do you put your investment on as there are no guarantee that it will run with your bitcoin

try to use this site for calculator to check your annual return in some casino

https://thebitcoinstrip.com/blog/investing-in-bitcoin-casinos.html

waterpile

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It depends on the situation if you're like risking 50btc for a percentage of _>1% then the risk is not worth it. You might as well find a better place to invest it.

fox19891989

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If they will not run away with your funds, share 50% house edge is very high.

Current owner acquired satoshidice for over 120000+ btc, I think they will not run away with your funds in recent years because their investment is over 120000 btc. If they want to screw their investment, just run away with house fund, but the house fund can't cover that principal.

asuryan180

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Quote from: thebenjamincode on April 17, 2015, 03:13:33 AM

hi there everyone
i just need some advice because i would like to invest at satoshidice and i would like to know your opinion whether it is good to invest there or not?

mod note: ref removed

I am not sure how good of an idea investing in dice sites is anymore, you want to get into a dice site on the ground floor which you have a very good feeling will become a contender within whatever timespan you are happy with waiting etc.

If i was to invest in a dice site now i would choose Dadice because they are new but they are good and i am 70% they will be 1 of the top dice sites in the not so distant future. Take a look, shop around and make a decision based on what you believe is a good idea from your research...

zetaray

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It is good idea if the owner of the dice site do not run away with investor's coins

Twipple

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I thought the satoshi dice was under a different management now, and under different owners. If its a new owner, I would suggest not investing in it, for obvious reasons that you shouldn't invest in online casinos under bitcoin.

Topic: Does investing on a bitcoin dice bankroll a good idea? (Read 1687 times)