I think that LN does not really solve the scalability problem at all.
It will scale the Bitcoin Network, but I believe no one knows by how much. 100x? 1000x? Or maybe less? Because of that unknown, then we simply cannot predict how much it will impact the volume of Bitcoin's usage.
Lightning network ofcourse solves the scalability problem. We can create a dozen of lightning networks if we need it. It's similar to something coinbase has been using within its platform. They were criticised at first for their model but now the whole bitcoin community is embracing the lightning network.
You are confusing scaling with offloading.
Offloading:
Bitcoin Blocks can hold a Maximum of ~1.7MB [~7200 transactions]
so ~12 transactions per secondLN Network [Thousands of IOUs per second] only limited by hardware & bandwidth of the hubs
Now let's say LN is only processing 50 million IOUs,
and
Bitcoin is maxed out at 12 transactions per second.
If only 1% of LN users wanted to cash out in the same block,
that would be 500000 transactions, which would need ~70 bitcoin blocks and take ~11.7 hours to complete.
Causing the Bitcoin Network to be useless for half a day and the onchain fees to skyrocket.
Scaling:
Imagine
Bitcoin Blocks were holding a Max of 8MB[~33600 transactions]
so ~56 transactions per secondNow the 1% of LN users wanted to cash out in the same block,
that would be 500000 transactions, which would need ~15 bitcoin blocks and take only 2.5 hours to complete.
As you can see the 8mb block bitcoin achieves greater scaling than the 1.7mb block bitcoin.
The fact that LN's 3rd party network has higher IOUs transactions capacity , does not increase the onchain scaling. In Fact, If their is ever even a minor exodus from LN once it becomes mainstream , odds are high it drives onchain fees and onchain wait times to undreamed of levels.
If Bitcoin was a Bus and could hold 100 passengers,
and the bus was near capacity , and some of the passengers decided to get off at the bus terminal and take a cab for the majority of the trips, and then returned to the bus terminal for the final trip home.
All they are doing is not using the Bitcoin Bus as it was unsatisfactory and paying the cab operators additional fares. Which the Cab operators don't always go the full distance like the bus does, but require multiple cabs and multiple small fares to reach your destination.
Bitcoin Scaling was not increased
(as it is exactly the same number of seats either way),
it's adoption/utility was decreased in favor of increasing LN's adoption/utility.
Offloading transactions to LN , or even Altcoins by using Litecoin , Doge or Ethereum are the same thing.
All can take up the artificial transactions limitation imposed on bitcoin by it's core developers, which are more interested in LN than they are bitcoin.
LN can use modern hardware and process thousands of IOU transactions per second,
while bitcoin using modern hardware is limited to ~12 transactions per second.
Kind of makes you wonder how stupid people are to believe that nonsense.
Scaling can only be done Onchain,
Offloading occurs when you transition to any other network because bitcoin can't fulfill your transactions needs.
FYI:
To increase scaling on a Bitcoin Bus with 100 seats.
Either add 100 extra seats so the Bus has 200 seats
or
Drive the Bus twice as fast , so you can get people to their destination in half the time.
Calling Taxis because you refuse to upgrade your Bus capacity ,
is a sure sign that one day all anyone will do is call the taxis and ignore the Bus.