Does martingale really works? - page 44.

vendetahome

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Quote from: tsoPANos on June 04, 2015, 01:43:30 PM

Quote from: pooya87 on June 04, 2015, 01:08:08 PM

Quote from: tsoPANos on June 02, 2015, 03:13:13 PM

My experience with martingale was catastrophic.

I was happy in the start, as I was winning.
And then, BANG! I got a lose streak.
I never tried martingale again.

I increases the chances to win small amounts while it does the same for losing large amounts!

i used to do martingale betting a lot, i used to leave the page open for hours betting and every time the result was the same as before.
at first there are wins and win streaks are small, like 6-7 in a row
after that the losing streak starts, and that is when i lost 20 times in a row and my balance was zero

We need to learn from our mistakes.
No martingale again, never gamble more than you can afford to lose.

why everyone say no martingale? its a good strategy you just need to use it with mind and dont play too much

Plusone

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Quote from: nikona on June 04, 2015, 01:37:10 PM

I wonder why doesn't a strategy to start martingale after 15 losses be successful if your bankroll can cover upto 20 losses. This way their strategy will be able to take up to 35 losses.

Because of negative EV. One main reason for all strategies. If your sequence of bets consists of non-martingale and martingale (used only after 15 losses), you'll lose money in non-martingale part because of negative EV, and martingale part will be used very seldom.

tsoPANos

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In math we trust.

Quote from: pooya87 on June 04, 2015, 01:08:08 PM

Quote from: tsoPANos on June 02, 2015, 03:13:13 PM

My experience with martingale was catastrophic.

I was happy in the start, as I was winning.
And then, BANG! I got a lose streak.
I never tried martingale again.

I increases the chances to win small amounts while it does the same for losing large amounts!

i used to do martingale betting a lot, i used to leave the page open for hours betting and every time the result was the same as before.
at first there are wins and win streaks are small, like 6-7 in a row
after that the losing streak starts, and that is when i lost 20 times in a row and my balance was zero

We need to learn from our mistakes.
No martingale again, never gamble more than you can afford to lose.

Plusone

member

Activity: 117

Merit: 100

Quote from: Coef on June 04, 2015, 01:00:48 PM

There is indeed just one 30+ streak on the old JD, after billions of bets.
The longest and second longest losing streak is 32 and 27 bets long respectively, while the longest winning streak is 30 bets long.
The full details can be found in https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.7060900.

With the chance of winning/losing ~50%, 1 of ~1 billion streaks is 30+ bets long.
Average length of streak is about 2 (because 1*1/2+2*1/4+3*1/8+...=2), so in average you have to do about 2 billion bets before catching a strick of 30+ bets, 8 billion bets for a streak of 32+ bets, etc. So it matches the probability theory quite well, because billions of bets are really made at the largest dice sites.

nikona

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Quote from: Coef on June 04, 2015, 01:00:48 PM

Quote from: itod on June 02, 2015, 02:50:48 PM

Chance to lose certain amount of times in a row is linearly corresponding to the total number of times you roll the dice. The more you roll, the bigger is the chance to have many times in a row winning/losing sequence. 10x times in a row is a very small value and expected very quickly. I believe that on the old JD site there were several people with > 30x times in a row winning/ losing sequences, the biggest was something between 32x and 35x in a row sequence, can't remember how much exactly.

There is indeed just one 30+ streak on the old JD, after billions of bets.
The longest and second longest losing streak is 32 and 27 bets long respectively, while the longest winning streak is 30 bets long.
The full details can be found in https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.7060900.

I wonder why doesn't a strategy to start martingale after 15 losses be successful if your bankroll can cover upto 20 losses. This way their strategy will be able to take up to 35 losses.

pooya87

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Quote from: tsoPANos on June 02, 2015, 03:13:13 PM

My experience with martingale was catastrophic.

I was happy in the start, as I was winning.
And then, BANG! I got a lose streak.
I never tried martingale again.

I increases the chances to win small amounts while it does the same for losing large amounts!

i used to do martingale betting a lot, i used to leave the page open for hours betting and every time the result was the same as before.
at first there are wins and win streaks are small, like 6-7 in a row
after that the losing streak starts, and that is when i lost 20 times in a row and my balance was zero

Coef

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Exhausted

Quote from: itod on June 02, 2015, 02:50:48 PM

Chance to lose certain amount of times in a row is linearly corresponding to the total number of times you roll the dice. The more you roll, the bigger is the chance to have many times in a row winning/losing sequence. 10x times in a row is a very small value and expected very quickly. I believe that on the old JD site there were several people with > 30x times in a row winning/ losing sequences, the biggest was something between 32x and 35x in a row sequence, can't remember how much exactly.

There is indeed just one 30+ streak on the old JD, after billions of bets.
The longest and second longest losing streak is 32 and 27 bets long respectively, while the longest winning streak is 30 bets long.
The full details can be found in https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.7060900.

Plusone

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Martingale doesn't work ofc, even without bet limits. Imagine that there is a casino without bet and deposit limits and the casino has, for example, $2 million, and you have $20 million, deposit all this amount and play there. It is approximately 10 times more probable that you'll win all the money of the casino than the casino will win all your money. But this game isn't profitable for you because of house edge and negative EV. It is just a huge risk of bankruptcy for the casino. Limits are set only for avoiding situations like this, where there is a risk of bankruptcy for the casino, but they can't affect EV, which is always negative for player.

jenifer0012

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Quote from: masterzino on June 02, 2015, 07:36:13 PM

Of course it doesn't work, i laugh at the people selling/buying ebooks of the martingale method or similar methods on other forums. If it were that simple every casino in the world would be broke, might as well enjoy gambling instead of trying to 'profit' off of it and being disappointed/broke when you find out that isn't likely.

It does work, but that doesnt mean it is a sure profit. All strategy works but none will give sure profit so trying different strategy isnt bad as long as you know where you will end if you still keep playing

masterzino

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Of course it doesn't work, i laugh at the people selling/buying ebooks of the martingale method or similar methods on other forums. If it were that simple every casino in the world would be broke, might as well enjoy gambling instead of trying to 'profit' off of it and being disappointed/broke when you find out that isn't likely.

tsoPANos

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In math we trust.

My experience with martingale was catastrophic.

I was happy in the start, as I was winning.
And then, BANG! I got a lose streak.
I never tried martingale again.

I increases the chances to win small amounts while it does the same for losing large amounts!

itod

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Honey badger just does not care

Quote from: BTCevo on June 01, 2015, 10:17:07 PM

Quote from: shanem on June 01, 2015, 08:52:08 AM

Quote from: pooya87 on June 01, 2015, 08:48:55 AM

Quote from: Joca97 on May 31, 2015, 09:04:21 AM

There is a saying,go big or go home,thats what im doing

if you leave on your pc also all day,house edge will eat you at some point

yes , exactly. i used to use martingale before when i started gambling bitcoin but is you start small, you will never get to a considerable profit. and after the loosing streaks start to happen, then you suddenly see all your money is gone since you double the bet every time!

if you bet with any other method at least you can have the fun and win big Wink

Martingale is just way to re-assure yourself that you can't keep losing with the same bet at 50% chance.
This is dice. It is not impossible to to lose 10 times in a row.

I guess he doesnt say that this is dice game and that is possible to lose to 10 times or may be more in a row. Not in dice game may be but other game like blackjack you can find this. There are so many games that can make you lose more than 10 times. This martingale is just a method to re assure you that you will lose all of your money in the end so it wont last at all. That is from what I experienced

Chance to lose certain amount of times in a row is linearly corresponding to the total number of times you roll the dice. The more you roll, the bigger is the chance to have many times in a row winning/losing sequence. 10x times in a row is a very small value and expected very quickly. I believe that on the old JD site there were several people with > 30x times in a row winning/ losing sequences, the biggest was something between 32x and 35x in a row sequence, can't remember how much exactly.

BTCevo

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Quote from: shanem on June 01, 2015, 08:52:08 AM

Quote from: pooya87 on June 01, 2015, 08:48:55 AM

Quote from: Joca97 on May 31, 2015, 09:04:21 AM

There is a saying,go big or go home,thats what im doing

if you leave on your pc also all day,house edge will eat you at some point

yes , exactly. i used to use martingale before when i started gambling bitcoin but is you start small, you will never get to a considerable profit. and after the loosing streaks start to happen, then you suddenly see all your money is gone since you double the bet every time!

if you bet with any other method at least you can have the fun and win big Wink

Martingale is just way to re-assure yourself that you can't keep losing with the same bet at 50% chance.
This is dice. It is not impossible to to lose 10 times in a row.

I guess he doesnt say that this is dice game and that is possible to lose to 10 times or may be more in a row. Not in dice game may be but other game like blackjack you can find this. There are so many games that can make you lose more than 10 times. This martingale is just a method to re assure you that you will lose all of your money in the end so it wont last at all. That is from what I experienced

acharias

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Quote from: hunkey600 on June 01, 2015, 10:34:01 AM

Martingale is good for few bets only, take your profit and leave, if you play whole day you wont win. You get losing streak no doubt.

Erza

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Quote from: hunkey600 on June 01, 2015, 10:34:01 AM

Martingale is good for few bets only, take your profit and leave, if you play whole day you wont win. You get losing streak no doubt.

Its good for a longer bet too but you must know when to stop if you want to win it. Altough you will get losing streak if you still got more capital I think

it will depend on it whether you can win or lose it. But dont keep on your losing streak too much you will in much debt by then

tspacepilot

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I may write code in exchange for bitcoins.

Quote from: fox19891989 on June 01, 2015, 10:59:53 AM

Math is not very helpfull sometimes.

I have a friend, who had ~85 000 bets with Martingale, made it from 0.2 to 7.5 BTC.
At this period he never had more than 12 losses in a row.
Which is only 1/2^13 = 1/4096 chance.

He has played for 2 weeks, dreaming about new car
And then .. 17 losses in a row. He should be clever enough to stop with big profits.
But he continued - 20 losses in a row in next 5 mins..
All the next week he had only losses.

Finally he busted all. Cry

Wait, but that means that math is helpful. If he had done a little math and realized how much he was pushing his luck, he would have cashed out at 7.5 BTC, right?

I'm saying, looking at the math on these unlikely scenarios can bring back a little sobriety to the drunken thrill of gambling (maybe!).

fox19891989

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Math is not very helpfull sometimes.

I have a friend, who had ~85 000 bets with Martingale, made it from 0.2 to 7.5 BTC.
At this period he never had more than 12 losses in a row.
Which is only 1/2^13 = 1/4096 chance.

He has played for 2 weeks, dreaming about new car
And then .. 17 losses in a row. He should be clever enough to stop with big profits.
But he continued - 20 losses in a row in next 5 mins..
All the next week he had only losses.

Finally he busted all. Cry

shad_90

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I have learned this lesson the hard way that martingale is suicide. You lose everything at the end no matter how attractive it looks. Yes if you have enough to lose then you can try and you might get lucky but martingale is to be avoided at all conditions.

hunkey600

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Martingale is good for few bets only, take your profit and leave, if you play whole day you wont win. You get losing streak no doubt.

real789

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If you can't understand my post please report it

Quote from: Joca97 on May 31, 2015, 09:04:21 AM

Quote from: pooya87 on May 31, 2015, 08:26:25 AM

Quote from: SyGambler on May 31, 2015, 03:35:35 AM

Quote from: Joca97 on May 31, 2015, 02:06:35 AM

Quote from: catena5260 on May 30, 2015, 06:29:34 PM

Quote from: real789 on May 29, 2015, 07:47:21 PM

Not perfect work
we need more capital to try that

I try in primedice for 1 satosi martiangle I lose 0.1BTC
in 999dice and freebitcoin (multiple) I try martiangle too but iam still lose

lost 0.1 BTC martigaling with 1 satoshi base?

sorry for your bad luck Sad

sdçl lçad a oqwṕeknc cak

Was your odd 2.00 ? if you increased like that i still dont know what profit you get,just dust,but you can lose really much,better if you risked it then going 1 satoshi bets

it's not about the profit Joca
there are some people think that the martinagle is the cash machine
when I started playing dice I thought the same way
so yes even if u r betting 1 satoshi and turning on your PC all the day this will combine
but of course the universe doesn't work like that Grin

i think if you are going to leave your PC on all day long and leave the betting going from 1 satoshi, even if you win all the time and not lose all your winnings+profit in one roll; the price that you are going to pay for electricity is going to be much higher than your winnings.

i find risking high amounts more ammusing and rewarding, you know it is all in the thrill of risking to win big time Cheesy

although you might lose big time too Wink

There is a saying,go big or go home,thats what im doing

if you leave on your pc also all day,house edge will eat you at some point

I use RDP and leave it Grin

I think that why i get lose at all of my team
We must stop in profit and try with new capital

>>>Deposit
>>>run martiangle
>>>profit WD

Or
>>>Deposit
>>>martiangle and lose Angry

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