Does martingale really works? - page 52.

adaseb

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Quote from: Monopoly on April 07, 2015, 05:09:10 AM

Quote from: futureofbitcoin on April 06, 2015, 11:11:37 PM

Quote from: Monopoly on April 06, 2015, 01:07:17 PM

You are clearly wrong

This isn't just a strategy this is a revolution of all of strategies that you ever heard about them in the history of universe .

Another account started by 10k doges , get x2.2 profit at 5 hours .

What happened to the first one, went bust? I thought so. Dude, if you want to lose money yourself, go ahead. Stop trying to trick other people into it. Don't be such an asshole. Come on, don't you have a conscience?

No , The first account was not belong to me but the owner said that account made 450k profit .
Two accounts ran beside previous account ( belong to me )

This is my last post about this . I showed you details of the strategy , you can write script and test it and you do not need to accuse me of lying or something like that . My purposes were infinite money and inform people how they can make infinite money and Subsequently pull down dice casinos !

When you ran this test. Did you include the house edge? or did you set the edge to negative. Because it doesn't seem like it can be real actual data.

Bitcoin Buyer Reload

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i believe martingale would actually work for bitcoins.

since its 1.000000000 there are chances to make it happen. but of course the better should not start getting greedy. doing bigger bets whilst he should just double up. you will need at least, 5 bitcoins to make a good martingale theory work. i mean from observations i have made.

ranlo

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: ABS-CBN2 on April 07, 2015, 01:10:45 AM

i prefer to use YOLO BET Cheesy

Me too, usually all-in with multiplier under 2x (about 1.1x - 1.7x)
It's more fun than martingale strategy Cheesy

Anyway, martingale only works for very short terms

It might not even work for short terms. I joined did 70% bets before and lost 11x in a row, on my first time there (it was in a game but same principle).

madonnino

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i think playing at 2x martingale don't works, but if u have a big bankroll and play under 2x you can have good profit,

remember: bad luck is every second behind your shoulders

Grand_Voyageur

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: ABS-CBN2 on April 07, 2015, 01:10:45 AM

i prefer to use YOLO BET Cheesy

Me too, usually all-in with multiplier under 2x (about 1.1x - 1.7x)
It's more fun than martingale strategy Cheesy

Anyway, martingale only works for very short terms

I use mostly BikiniDice. Multiplier set to 1.33x of lost bet.

Raimonn

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the isn't a strategy that works 100 %. When gambling you have risk.

Monopoly

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Quote from: futureofbitcoin on April 06, 2015, 11:11:37 PM

Quote from: Monopoly on April 06, 2015, 01:07:17 PM

You are clearly wrong

This isn't just a strategy this is a revolution of all of strategies that you ever heard about them in the history of universe .

Another account started by 10k doges , get x2.2 profit at 5 hours .

What happened to the first one, went bust? I thought so. Dude, if you want to lose money yourself, go ahead. Stop trying to trick other people into it. Don't be such an asshole. Come on, don't you have a conscience?

No , The first account was not belong to me but the owner said that account made 450k profit .
Two accounts ran beside previous account ( belong to me )

This is my last post about this . I showed you details of the strategy , you can write script and test it and you do not need to accuse me of lying or something like that . My purposes were infinite money and inform people how they can make infinite money and Subsequently pull down dice casinos !

ABS-CBN2

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i prefer to use YOLO BET Cheesy

futureofbitcoin

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Quote from: Monopoly on April 06, 2015, 01:07:17 PM

You are clearly wrong

This isn't just a strategy this is a revolution of all of strategies that you ever heard about them in the history of universe .

Another account started by 10k doges , get x2.2 profit at 5 hours .

What happened to the first one, went bust? I thought so. Dude, if you want to lose money yourself, go ahead. Stop trying to trick other people into it. Don't be such an asshole. Come on, don't you have a conscience?

Monopoly

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Activity: 546

Merit: 500

Quote from: Chemistry1988 on April 06, 2015, 04:32:53 AM

Quote from: Monopoly on April 06, 2015, 04:22:55 AM

Good news :

My strategy that introduced in above really works .

Someone wrote the lua script in dicebot and used it and makes so profit till now .

Proof :

-snip-

Start by 18K doges , made profit x5 in 50K bets ( almost 20 hours ) .

Don't be lazy wrote the script and make inifite Money and pull down all dice casinos .

Having a profit in a purely luck game doesn't indicate your strategy is working. It simply indicates the gambler was having some good luck.

You are clearly wrong

This isn't just a strategy this is a revolution of all of strategies that you ever heard about them in the history of universe .

Another account started by 10k doges , get x2.2 profit at 5 hours .

Future is in front of you .

shanem

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I don't find martingale worthwhile as you need a huge capital to win a small amount.
It is not difficult to find some losing streak wiping out all your capital.
A 10 game losing streak is not unusual in dice games.

dooglus

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Quote from: NicosKaralis on April 06, 2015, 08:07:26 AM

some of you are doing just plain wrong calculations. I saw someone saying:

Quote

3 losses are 12.5 or 1 in 8 bets

Thats not how math works, if you have 50% win chance that means on the long run the wins will be close to the losses, but that is not guaranteed and the 12.5% means that if you slice all wins by sequences (win or lose streaks) statistically there will be 12.5% of sequences that have 3 wins in a row

You're the one doing wrong calculations. What you say can't be true.

You're saying that if you slice your results into streaks, 12.5% of the streaks will be winning streaks of length 3.
In that case another 12.5% will be losing streaks of length 3,
25% will be WW,
25% will be LL,
50% will be single wins,
50% will be single losses,
and we're already well over 100%.

The truth is that 25% of streaks will be single wins, 25% will be single losses,
12.5% will be double wins, 12.5% will be double losses,
6.25% will be triple wins, 6.25% will be triple losses,
and so on.

Alternatively, perhaps you're slicing the sequence such that each sequence ends with a loss. ie. you don't count WLLL as two sequences (W, LLL - a single win and a triple loss) but as three (WL, L, L - a win sequence of length 1 and two win sequences of length 0)

In that case, 50% of win sequences have a length of 0, 25% are length 1, 12.5% are length 2, and 6.25% are length 3.

Any way you cut it, only 6.25% of sequences will be triple wins.

However, the guy you were quoting wasn't saying that 1 in 8 sequences was a triple loss. He was saying that the chance of 3 50% bets all losing was 1 in 8; and that is true.

opossum

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Quote from: fast2fix on April 05, 2015, 06:06:21 AM

Quote from: Sammal on April 05, 2015, 04:00:16 AM

I think at the start it does, then u lose all Shocked

yeah you're right at starting one would will win and in the end the house will win, the longer you play the more you lose.

This is not true, you might not get the chance to win Tongue

You may start of and lose lose and lose again and lose all of your bank roll before you have even got started.

There is no writing in stone you will gain a win run unless you have the bankroll to make sure you find one but that does not mean you will it just means you have more of a chance than someone with a smaller bankroll.

There is no winning system for gambling, some have good methods and some might even have something close to a system but you will not hear from them.

NicosKaralis

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I feel this is a very long conversation that people are just repeating themselves "doesn't work", "you cant win", etc...

Truth is martingale does work if you have unlimited amount to bet

Since most of the dice sites implement some sort of ceiling, martingale does not work on them.

And besides some of you are doing just plain wrong calculations. I saw someone saying:

Quote

3 losses are 12.5 or 1 in 8 bets

Thats not how math works, if you have 50% win chance that means on the long run the wins will be close to the losses, but that is not guaranteed and the 12.5% means that if you slice all wins by sequences (win or lose streaks) statistically there will be 12.5% of sequences that have 3 wins in a row

My own strategy, which i don't think its perfect or even good, is to use martingale with a very large multiplier that way I win fast and stop faster

say base bet 1, win prob 49.5 payout x2
no error : bet 1 win 1 profit 1
after 1 error : bet 3 win 3 profit 2
after 2 error : bet 9 win 9 profit 5
after 3 error : bet 27 win 27 profit 14
after 4 error : bet 81 win 81 profit 41

and so on

Chemistry1988

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Quote from: CryptoDigitals on April 05, 2015, 12:06:20 PM

An interesting, safer, yet slower strategy is to play:

- 2X Payout

- Double your Wager on WIN - Up to 3 Times (Ex. 0.01; 0.02; 0.04)

- After 3rd Win Reset to Base (0.01 in above example)

- Reset to base after any loss.

Try it. Wink

CD

It is called anti-martingale or reverse martingale, which doesn't work as well.

Let's call it a round when you reset your bet size to the base value. There are 4 different scenarios for each round.

WWW: Chance = 49.5%^3, profit = 0.01+0.02+0.04 = 0.07
WWL: Chance = 49.5%*49.5%*50.5%, profit = 0.01+0.02-0.04 = -0.01
WL: Chance = 49.5%*50.5%, profit = 0.01-0.02= -0.01
L: Chance = 50.5%, profit = -0.01

So, you have 12.13% to win 0.07 and 87.87% to lose 0.01, still resulting to a negative EV.

Quote from: Monopoly on April 06, 2015, 04:22:55 AM

Good news :

My strategy that introduced in above really works .

Someone wrote the lua script in dicebot and used it and makes so profit till now .

Proof :

-snip-

Start by 18K doges , made profit x5 in 50K bets ( almost 20 hours ) .

Don't be lazy wrote the script and make inifite Money and pull down all dice casinos .

Having a profit in a purely luck game doesn't indicate your strategy is working. It simply indicates the gambler was having some good luck.

Monopoly

hero member

Activity: 546

Merit: 500

Quote from: futureofbitcoin on April 06, 2015, 02:59:05 AM

The only strategy that works is marry the casino owner.

Good news :

My strategy that introduced in above really works .

Someone wrote the lua script in dicebot and used it and makes so profit till now .

Proof :

Start by 18K doges , made profit x5 in 50K bets ( almost 20 hours ) .

Don't be lazy wrote the script and make inifite Money and pull down all dice casinos .

Chemistry1988

legendary

Activity: 1120

Merit: 1000

Quote from: jorjito25 on April 05, 2015, 12:15:50 PM

Dosent exist strategy to win since there is a minimum and maximum limit bet.
Martingale will work without those limits!

Even if the house doesn't care about its bankroll management, there will still always be a max limit for you, ie. min(your bankroll, house bankroll).

And even with a very low min limit (when you bet with a cheap altcoin) and a very high max limit (when both you and that site have a huge bankroll), martingale is still not going to help you beat the house in the long term when the game is -EV.

futureofbitcoin

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The only strategy that works is marry the casino owner.

dznuts85

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Quote from: CryptoDigitals on April 05, 2015, 12:06:20 PM

An interesting, safer, yet slower strategy is to play:

- 2X Payout

- Double your Wager on WIN - Up to 3 Times (Ex. 0.01; 0.02; 0.04)

- After 3rd Win Reset to Base (0.01 in above example)

- Reset to base after any loss.

Try it. Wink

CD

its just the same, you can still lose in the end.. no strategy could give you good profit on a gambling site for long. i remember NicholasCra winning at PD 1day and he try to sell his strategy for BTC and the day after that, he lost all his profit and abandoned that account..

futureofbitcoin

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Quote from: CryptoDigitals on April 05, 2015, 12:06:20 PM

An interesting, safer, yet slower strategy is to play:

- 2X Payout

- Double your Wager on WIN - Up to 3 Times (Ex. 0.01; 0.02; 0.04)

- After 3rd Win Reset to Base (0.01 in above example)

- Reset to base after any loss.

Try it. Wink

CD

Doesn't work. You still lose in the end.

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