Pages:
Author

Topic: [DONE] Selling Bitcoinica's debt. 35 btc loan. - page 2. (Read 1939 times)

hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
0xFB0D8D1534241423
hi! bitcoinica still owes my 40 btc.
i would like to take a 35 btc loan, and return 40 btc if/when bitcoinica pays back my 40 btc.
i will return nothing before bitcoinica pays me back.

Maybe Zhou Tong or the Bitcoin Consultancy will loan you the 35 BTC, because that's an awfully bad deal for anyone else lol

Good luck Tongue
how low do you think i should set the price before someone makes a offer? 30btc? 20btc?
should i provide 50% back guarantee by christmas?

None of that will solve the "i will return nothing before bitcoinica pays me back." problem, because the most certain is that you won't get a dime back.
Even if you guarantee 50% back by Christmas, they will still lose.
i know, but i though someone might be willingly to take that risk...

i would take the offer of loan 30btc payback 40btc, and 50% (15btc) by christmas, if i had btc enough, and the loan taker was a reputable forum member.

Basically, you're offering gambling on a Bitcoinica payback. The problem is, you have the wrong odds. 35/40 is 87.5% Roll Eyes
Personally I think Bitcoinica has a 10% chance of paying back, so I'd buy your debt for less than 4 BTC. Not 35.
i think there is about 30-40% chance they will payback, but i kind of need the money now, thats why i tried to sell their debt.
You value their debt too high then. You'll find very few people who think that Bitcoinica has a 40% chance of paying back, and even if that is the case, the debt is worth no more than 16 BTC.
yes but the 50% back doubles that, so 32btc, if you thrust me 100% that im keeping my word.
Well...
60% of the time, the loaner would get 15 BTC back on their 30 BTC loan. That's -15 BTC. * 60% = -9.
40% of the time, the loaner would get 40 BTC back on their 30 BTC loan. That's 10 BTC. * 40% = 4.
Add them up, and on average, over an infinite number of universes, 40% of which Bitcoinica paid back their customers in full, the loaner would lose 5 BTC.

This is with the IMO very optimistic 40% odds.

For anyone considering this, if I thought Bitcoinica had X% chance of paying back, and the price of the debt was Y, I would not buy 40 BTC of debt with 15 BTC guaranteed payback if
X*(40 - Y) + (1 - X) * (-Y + 15) <= 0
So my 10% odds comes out to 17.5 as the maximum I'd be willing to pay.
legendary
Activity: 1050
Merit: 1000
You are WRONG!
hi! bitcoinica still owes my 40 btc.
i would like to take a 35 btc loan, and return 40 btc if/when bitcoinica pays back my 40 btc.
i will return nothing before bitcoinica pays me back.

Maybe Zhou Tong or the Bitcoin Consultancy will loan you the 35 BTC, because that's an awfully bad deal for anyone else lol

Good luck Tongue
how low do you think i should set the price before someone makes a offer? 30btc? 20btc?
should i provide 50% back guarantee by christmas?

None of that will solve the "i will return nothing before bitcoinica pays me back." problem, because the most certain is that you won't get a dime back.
Even if you guarantee 50% back by Christmas, they will still lose.
i know, but i though someone might be willingly to take that risk...

i would take the offer of loan 30btc payback 40btc, and 50% (15btc) by christmas, if i had btc enough, and the loan taker was a reputable forum member.

Basically, you're offering gambling on a Bitcoinica payback. The problem is, you have the wrong odds. 35/40 is 87.5% Roll Eyes
Personally I think Bitcoinica has a 10% chance of paying back, so I'd buy your debt for less than 4 BTC. Not 35.
i think there is about 30-40% chance they will payback, but i kind of need the money now, thats why i tried to sell their debt.
You value their debt too high then. You'll find very few people who think that Bitcoinica has a 40% chance of paying back, and even if that is the case, the debt is worth no more than 16 BTC.
yes but the 50% back doubles that, so 32btc, if you thrust me 100% that im keeping my word.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
0xFB0D8D1534241423
hi! bitcoinica still owes my 40 btc.
i would like to take a 35 btc loan, and return 40 btc if/when bitcoinica pays back my 40 btc.
i will return nothing before bitcoinica pays me back.

Maybe Zhou Tong or the Bitcoin Consultancy will loan you the 35 BTC, because that's an awfully bad deal for anyone else lol

Good luck Tongue
how low do you think i should set the price before someone makes a offer? 30btc? 20btc?
should i provide 50% back guarantee by christmas?

None of that will solve the "i will return nothing before bitcoinica pays me back." problem, because the most certain is that you won't get a dime back.
Even if you guarantee 50% back by Christmas, they will still lose.
i know, but i though someone might be willingly to take that risk...

i would take the offer of loan 30btc payback 40btc, and 50% (15btc) by christmas, if i had btc enough, and the loan taker was a reputable forum member.

Basically, you're offering gambling on a Bitcoinica payback. The problem is, you have the wrong odds. 35/40 is 87.5% Roll Eyes
Personally I think Bitcoinica has a 10% chance of paying back, so I'd buy your debt for less than 4 BTC. Not 35.
i think there is about 30-40% chance they will payback, but i kind of need the money now, thats why i tried to sell their debt.
You value their debt too high then. You'll find very few people who think that Bitcoinica has a 40% chance of paying back, and even if that is the case, the debt is worth no more than 16 BTC.
legendary
Activity: 1050
Merit: 1000
You are WRONG!
hi! bitcoinica still owes my 40 btc.
i would like to take a 35 btc loan, and return 40 btc if/when bitcoinica pays back my 40 btc.
i will return nothing before bitcoinica pays me back.

Maybe Zhou Tong or the Bitcoin Consultancy will loan you the 35 BTC, because that's an awfully bad deal for anyone else lol

Good luck Tongue
how low do you think i should set the price before someone makes a offer? 30btc? 20btc?
should i provide 50% back guarantee by christmas?

None of that will solve the "i will return nothing before bitcoinica pays me back." problem, because the most certain is that you won't get a dime back.
Even if you guarantee 50% back by Christmas, they will still lose.
i know, but i though someone might be willingly to take that risk...

i would take the offer of loan 30btc payback 40btc, and 50% (15btc) by christmas, if i had btc enough, and the loan taker was a reputable forum member.

Basically, you're offering gambling on a Bitcoinica payback. The problem is, you have the wrong odds. 35/40 is 87.5% Roll Eyes
Personally I think Bitcoinica has a 10% chance of paying back, so I'd buy your debt for less than 4 BTC. Not 35.
i think there is about 30-40% chance they will payback, but i kind of need the money now, thats why i tried to sell their debt.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
0xFB0D8D1534241423
Basically, you're offering gambling on a Bitcoinica payback. The problem is, you have the wrong odds. 35/40 is 87.5% Roll Eyes
Personally I think Bitcoinica has a 10% chance of paying back, so I'd buy your debt for less than 4 BTC. Not 35.
legendary
Activity: 1358
Merit: 1002
hi! bitcoinica still owes my 40 btc.
i would like to take a 35 btc loan, and return 40 btc if/when bitcoinica pays back my 40 btc.
i will return nothing before bitcoinica pays me back.

Maybe Zhou Tong or the Bitcoin Consultancy will loan you the 35 BTC, because that's an awfully bad deal for anyone else lol

Good luck Tongue
how low do you think i should set the price before someone makes a offer? 30btc? 20btc?
should i provide 50% back guarantee by christmas?

None of that will solve the "i will return nothing before bitcoinica pays me back." problem, because the most certain is that you won't get a dime back.
Even if you guarantee 50% back by Christmas, they will still lose.
legendary
Activity: 1050
Merit: 1000
You are WRONG!
hi! bitcoinica still owes my 40 btc.
i would like to take a 35 btc loan, and return 40 btc if/when bitcoinica pays back my 40 btc.
i will return nothing before bitcoinica pays me back.

Maybe Zhou Tong or the Bitcoin Consultancy will loan you the 35 BTC, because that's an awfully bad deal for anyone else lol

Good luck Tongue
how low do you think i should set the price before someone makes a offer? 30btc? 20btc?
should i provide 50% back guarantee by christmas?
legendary
Activity: 1358
Merit: 1002
hi! bitcoinica still owes my 40 btc.
i would like to take a 35 btc loan, and return 40 btc if/when bitcoinica pays back my 40 btc.
i will return nothing before bitcoinica pays me back.

Maybe Zhou Tong or the Bitcoin Consultancy will loan you the 35 BTC, because that's an awfully bad deal for anyone else lol

Good luck Tongue
legendary
Activity: 1050
Merit: 1000
You are WRONG!
hi! bitcoinica still owes my 40 btc.
i would like to take a 35 btc loan, and return 40 btc if/when bitcoinica pays back my 40 btc.
i will return nothing before bitcoinica pays me back.


New terms:
25 btc loan.
75% garenteed payback by christmas(18,75 btc).
full 40 btc repayment when/if bitcoinica pays me back.
Pages:
Jump to: