The way I see it, Russia is faced with lose-lose situation and all they are doing right now is nothing but damage control. Their bad future projections, lousy awareness of an ongoing deep changes within the Ukrainian society, catastrophic handling of Ukraine's failing economy and tendency to ignore system-wide corruption and unlawfulness hit them hard: majority of Ukrainians doesn't like Russians any more, to put it simple. Surely, annexation of Crimea and messing around with so called Donyetsk republic aren't helping either.
Even if Moscow manages to force Kiev to accept the federalization (which, in the long run, could easily turn into the separation of eastern regions), they are permanently losing the rest of the Ukraine. Which they've always rightfully considered friends, allies and brothers in arms, unfortunatelly it's all history now. If they wanted to keep Ukraine in their sphere of influence, Russians should have shown proactive approach and act much before Euromaidan happened. In fact, even before the Orange revolution.
It's difficult to say, if it's a lose-lose situation. We don't know all the cards. For example, Yanukovich, who is still the legitimate president of Ukraine, can officially ask Russia for help in the form of peace-keeping troops. Russia and Ukraine have agreements on that.
Politically, Crimea is a separate affair altogether, and should not be mixed in. Donetsk fights for federalisation of Ukraine, so that the region has a greater say in its own governing within the country. Federal construct works well for a country like Switzerland, which has 4 Cantons, who don't always see eye to eye and use different languages. Ukraine is not much different.
Saying that Ukrainians don't like Russians is much on the same note as saying that Germans don't like Bavarians. I know a family, who has grand-parents in Ural and Moscow, parents in Crimea and Kazahstan, with children living in Kiev. They consider themselves Russian, though they have blood of at least 4 different peoples in their family, Ukrainian included.
As for friends and allies, and it being a history. It only takes one external enemy for the feeling to return. I can illustrate on a smaller scale. Have you been to Odessa? There are the famous Odessa courtyard communities, with many families living in the apartments around a courtyard. they may squabble with each other, playing out small feuds, but if an outsider, say some official, turns up, they would side with each other in such a tightly-knit group that any army squad would think twice before confronting them.
