Topic: Don't be confused, bitcoin halving doesn't translate into bitcoin All time high (Read 289 times)

Before the halving, I researched about it's connection with bull run because it would be the first halving that I would experience, and I found out that bull run doesn't start immediately after halving. But I think that many newbies didn't bother to research to find out if bull run happens immediately after the halving, a person that I know went as far as borrowing money to buy Bitcoin, with the assurance that price will surge immediately after halving, I don't know if he has repayed the loan, but I know that it won't be from Bitcoin profit, if he was able to repay it. It is important for people who intends to start Bitcoin investment to try and get the right knowledge of how it works, if they do, then they will not panic and sale off when price starts to dip after halving, instead they can continue to hodl, knowing that within a year we will likely see an ATH.

Somehow a risky decision to do especially if the price already climbed up since we don't know if there's a correction will happen then they bought at bad position. Some people in that case gets panic that's why there's a massive sell off happen since those people cannot control their emotion since what they always think that its easy to gain profit from bitcoin since its halving season but they forgot to realize that a lot of things need to consider and patience is important before they can see the effect of this event.

If they are short tempered then they can't really get anything but just getting discourage especially if they see a slow movement happen on bitcoin just like what we see these days.

It's true in previous halving cases that Bitcoin touches new ATH year and half after the halving date. But this halving is different in a sense that we have an ATH just before the halving and that's most likely because of Bitcoin ETF. Now it's almost month since we have halving of 2024 and price is still roaming around 70k USD. 
The current Bitcoin price is risky to enter but you can minimise the risk if you adopt DCA method to accumulate Bitcoins.

Lots of people bought bitcoin when halving was close, thinking that immediately after halving, the bitcoin price was really going to pump. Some of them sold their properties, thinking that immediately after the halving, bitcoin would skyrocket and they would sell and buy back the property they sold, but most of them are just disappointed right now because bitcoin is still maintaining its price and it hasn’t pumped yet. Most people don’t really understand what halving is all about, they just hear about it, and they are told bitcoin will pump after halving, but they don’t know it’s not immediately after halving.

Buying Bitcoin because one has the mentality that the price of Bitcoin is going to skyrocket after halving is not a bad idea or mentality. We all wants to make money in the market and that is the major reasons why we keep seeing people uncertain in Bitcoin and altcoins per say. Sometimes we might pick interest in investing in Bitcoin because we are optimistic that the price of Bitcoin is going to go bullish which can be a good source of revenue if one bought at a price that is lower that currency price of Bitcoin. There is nothing bad when we have interest investing in Bitcoin for any reason that we think of so to make money in the market.

I hardly relate with your saying every time a new halving occurs bitcoin hits a new ATH and that has happened every time since the history of bitcoin, yeah bitcoin halving is an event that marks the time which the reward for minner would be cut in halve and really has nothing to with the price of bitcoin but it has been that way since the beginning.

We are in bull run already, and already halving has occurred. We can't assume that halving didn't occur, what effect do you need to see mate, as OP said I would relate ot these way, Bitcoin halving doesn't mean there is gonna be an immediate pump in Bitcoin price. These is just a functionality that must occur in every cycle whereby new blocks formed are cut by 50% and miners rewards are reduced thus supply too.
 I agree maybe since this is your first year, you actually didn't understand how it works, no worries just be patient about your holding. Keep accumulating, and discipline enough not to gamble Bitcoin price because it isn't guarantee.

I understand you clearly without a hold to argue about this Op, I recently came in to this crypto industry and with the level of speculations about bitcoin halving, it possed influential expectation that the bull run event was going to be activated within just after the halving pass by but while having my emotions and knowledge nurtured in this forum, I adapted to stable my emotions without such false expectations that there was going to be a skyrocket of bitcoin price after the halving.

Then the halving date should have been set for when the fees decreases. Everyone anticipated the halving and were all happy for it’s arrival but not everyone is happy with the high fees during the halving period. I also think we should all assume halving haven’t started yet until we start seeing it’s effects.

This is actually my first bitcoin halving experience so i don’t know much about halving or how it went the last time, did people have similar experience of high transaction fees in the past? Because what we were told about halving is quite different from what is happening now.

With halving not having effects now does that mean bull run will also be extended as well? Since we have to wait several months to start seeing halving effect.

You have just said my mind because I don't know what is meant to happen again after Bitcoin halving because I have seen two different idea concerning this halving but whatsoever may be this case, we should just be careful while investing. We should know that anything can happen because we are dealing on volatile something and people with high strategy.

We have investment, and the only way to stand strong enough is to eliminate our fear and focused more on winning which is the main priority and the reason we're in the space in the first place. The space is filled with projects and most of them always don't come out promising, really a messy and failed projects for their investors. Our investment in the space should always be monitored on our watch, Bitcoin halving do have impacts on the project and in crypto market, I've watched my portfolio growing to become maximized in good figures which is relevant.

Well this is more like an argument now, I don't really know what to believe anymore. First I use to hear after halving there's going to be a bull run but now I seeing a thread that is saying that after having that the bull run is not 100% sure so I am wondering which should I believe because I am really confused right now, but I am just having this feeling that since bitcoin is volatile in nature we shouldn't only expect it to take a bull run after halving or bear but we should expect anything because of it nature.

There must be more than one reason for the price increase after the halving. The logical would be that the flow of new supply has decreased 50%. That's a big deal. But it must also be a self-fulfilling prophecy to a certain extent. That everybody is expecting the price to increase after the halving makes it a reality.

However, my point is that as far as history is concerned, there's an ATH after the halving. There have been 4 halvings so far. I'm not saying an ATH will always be reached after the halving. That's not automatic. But it's wrong to say that there may not be an ATH as "history have proven that already." There has yet to be a history to prove that an ATH may not happen after the halving.

I still buy because it was in the correction phase and I hold because I believe it will skyrocket after a few months. Maybe my mentality is wrong but seeing the previous halvings, we never see it pumping instantly but gradually. It can be the same trend we experience this time and while the price is low, why not stop buying if we can afford to do that?

It really just matters in the situation, we can hold either if there is no new ATH. Currently, at $66,700, it is a good chance to take and even reaching ti $80k before the end of this year is not regretting anymore but a good profit.

The misconception that many newcomers have about bitcoin halving is that immediately after the halving will be bull run. There will be bull run but might not happen immediately after but after several months. Don't be surprised that the main bull run will happen in 2025.

It will be appreciated if you can edit your post and delete the part that said that it is proven that not all halving is accompanied by a new ATH. It is a wrong statement.

I mean in theory it should increase its market price because it would affect the supply of Bitcoin in the market lowering its reward in the network, a lot of newbies for sure are going to think that it is a great opportunity for a profit because on the Bitcoin halving it is going to be a huge increase in the market price, but its actually the opposite, In my opinion, the hype of the halving is gonna spike before the halving began that is when we see it reaches the all-time high in the past month, that is I think the time we see the effect of the Bitcoin halving hype. On the day of having a lot of traders are going to get FOMO investing then they are going to realize that the market is not gonna spike that easily because there will be a huge delay in the market before we can see the effect of the halving in the market.

I learned it the hard way, I invested a lot and held for a long time last Bitcoin halved and even though it was a profit already I held thinking that the market price was just gonna continue until the halving, If I was just going for the long term investment it might be worth it anyway but I ended up selling at wrong timing it might still be a profit though but wasn't a great decision if you're going to ask me.

The best thing to do here is always go for the long-term investment because you are not going to lose money if you are not going to sell it at an unfair price in the market as long as you hold there will be a chance of it to increases especially on Bitcoin because it's the number one cryptocurrency it's the safest investment that you could make on cryptocurrency.

Those who waited this far for halving before buying are already late to the party. Anyone who was already here a few months ago, should've known this. Hype for halving is often high but that doesn't translate to immediate price spike. However, it will eventually lead to a peak and a new ATH once the law of demand and supply come into play, that will all know. It takes a few months after halving for that to happen. Anyway, for those rushing to buy Bitcoin with the aim of a mouth watering ROI; they better look elsewhere into viable alts because Bitcoin has passed its prime where it turned a few dollars into millions. It's never going to happen again.

Well, personally the halving event for me is just a step that happens every 4 years, but it doesnt guarantee an immediate price increase or free money when you are a new investor. There are few factors which can contribute to pump the price movement in the long term. Historically, every time this event arrives, we see another ATH level reached.

Some of these factors, I would say are the change in supply and demand dynamics, which reduces the rate of new mined Bitcoins resulting in a decrease in the rate of supply. So, if the demand remains constant or increases, the reduced supply can lead to creating pressure on the price. In Bitcoin, when we see the price is stable the chart will show or go momentum in the long term always.

After all, it’s not something we can't predict. The only valid reason for Bitcoin price to pump is if the pressure of buying increases, regardless of what events or news are coming as long as they are considered positive.

Anyone who buys bitcoin with the believe that it will skyrocket during or after the halving is making a wrong speculation, after all we are not yet in the bull run and for the fact that a new ATH was created before the halving also sends a big signals for anyone who wants to invest in Bitcoin to be very careful when making investments for short interval except they do that for the long term.

Nope!

Hashrate and difficulty increase > making miners harder to mine Bitcoin > miners with too costly operation shut down > difficulty decreases till equilibrium point.
That's why old-time miners like Phil consider shutting down after this.

The price dictates the hashrate!
If hashrate would dictate the price then all we would have to do is each of us buying 1 ASIC, raise the hashrate to 10 times what it is now so the price would also 10x.
Of course, it doesn't work like that!


So by saying this, you're assuming that the price will go down from this point on?