Topic: Don't Buy Bitcoin Now - At USD6000 (Read 2522 times)

If our goal is being a hodler then i prefer buying on every price drop. but as a trader i will wait for 3000 $ i am sure we will touch this price before 2018
then i will go all in and not worry more drops cause i will be a hodler

As trader you're going to wait for $3000? Traders don't need significant market movements in order to start taking advantage of them, but you apparently do. If you're so sure that the market will go down that much before the end of this year, then sell all you have right now, and buy everything back at the $3000 level. If you don't do so yourself, your words hold zero value, and you then can't expect anyone else to take you seriously from that point. You're basically throwing a rock through your own windows then....

but as a trader i will wait for 3000 $ i am sure we will touch this price before 2018
then i will go all in and not worry more drops cause i will be a hodler

If our goal is being a hodler then i prefer buying on every price drop. but as a trader i will wait for 3000 $ i am sure we will touch this price before 2018
then i will go all in and not worry more drops cause i will be a hodler

To preddict the market, we have to pay attention to the more stable prices before and after Mt. Gox in 2013/2014.

For many years from 2009 to 2013 the price was about USD 8. Then comes Mt. Gox. After Mt. Gox the price corrected until it was USD 200-300, the lows in 2015. So the rather stable range was USD 300 to USD 460 at end March/May 2016. March was the time when the Japanese parliament started to debate regulating bitcoin and it was the best that can happen - for Japan to formally licensing bitcoin exchanges. So it was also about May 2016 that the market took off until the present level of USD 6000.   

So the most likely reason for this exceptional rally should be the legalization of bitcoin by Japan. Probably many who have paid attentions to Japan could have predicted the outcome and started buying. If this is true, then prices would naturally correct - markets always correct.

So how do we predict the bottom line of this coming correction. We go back to what was the stable range before the rally - it was from USD 300 - 400. So this was the "psychological" price expectation from before and it is this range that we must pay attention to. This is all about human psychology - the market does have a memory of the most recent past. Say a x5 or a x10 should be a very high jump, i.e. USD 1500 - 3000.

Now people would like to belief that there are "many out there" waiting to buy bitcoins as it was "...the best money...etc". Then ask - why were they not buying throughout 2015 before the Japan's debate news? Why now? I don't know if 15 Nov plays a part. But common sense says :
      "Don't buy now".
It may even be wise to lock in some "real" fiat money instead.

Another question that others should ask:
      "Where does this USD 6000 quote come from?".
Is it really true that there is a "spot" market between BTC and USD. But how can trading exchanges give spot quotes when a bitcoin confirmation of 6 blocks may take hours? So we have to know how "spot" real is the USD 6000/BTC that we are given.   

Also ask:
"If you want to sell your bitcoins now, would the orders get through with confirmation?"
"How long does the sell confirmation takes?"
"Are there real buyers at current prices?"

$6000 will be the 1st test...
but the real test is $5500...
if under $5500...direction $3250

That's right, if you do not want to be chagrined then do not buy bitcoin now, I'm sure bitcoin prices will still go down again but still in high level at $5000. You're better to wait for it if you want to buy bitcoin, be patient for good results.

Why $6,000? And why not $5,000? Two things are happening right now. The value of Bitcoin is going down (down by 20% during the last 48 hours) and the value of Bitcoin Cash is going up (+200% since the last 2 days). I am neither selling, nor buying any BTC until the situation becomes clear.

As of now the price of bitcoin is down at 6350 dollars and I hopr it will increase again soon as possible.
So if you have extra money in your wallet buy bitcoin now but invest only you can afford to lose.

A wise thing to do right now, as expected the fall started even before the fork, quite earlier. And as usual the altcoins climbed and climbing.
Better to hold on for few days and realize the situation to move ahead to trade or invest. I was thinking to sell some as I doubt it will fall more and thus buying more Bitcoins to enjoy when it rebounds upward.

A wise thing to do right now, as expected the fall started even before the fork, quite earlier. And as usual the altcoins climbed and climbing.
Better to hold on for few days and realize the situation to move ahead to trade or invest. I was thinking to sell some as I doubt it will fall more and thus buying more Bitcoins to enjoy when it rebounds upward.

Why $6,000? And why not $5,000? Two things are happening right now. The value of Bitcoin is going down (down by 20% during the last 48 hours) and the value of Bitcoin Cash is going up (+200% since the last 2 days). I am neither selling, nor buying any BTC until the situation becomes clear.

In a sense you are correct that my rules are meant for long term investors who have the view that bitcoin should be held as an asset - even better than physical gold. But even long term investors may have a medium term strategy. If we are certain this current rally is a "pump-and-dump", we may sell half our BTC holding and to buy back at a much lower correction - the wait may even be two years from now. There is risk in ALL strategy. The current rally is vertical and NORMAL bitcoin purists CANNOT push the market up this manner; my guess is some very large powerful players doing the pumping.

My guess is that there may even be a correction back to USD2000 - very brutal. The rally started from May 2016 at USD450 . Even a good asset has a "price in the market's most recent memory." Who knows what this real hard fork on 15 Nov means (I am still thinking about the significance of this fork).

Short term strategy is always the most difficult. If your judgment is wrong, or you move too slowly, you may get caught off-guard and be slaughtered.   

The upgrade to 2MB blocks has been agreed first during the Bitcoin Roundtable Consensus in Hong-Kong on February 2016, and then ratified by the Bitcoin Scaling Agreement in New York on May 2017. These agreements stipulate the activation of Segregated Witness support and an increase of the maximum base block size from 1MB to 2MB.