Don't expect another 8% Diff increase -- expect more - page 3.

bcpokey

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: mike678 on July 24, 2011, 02:23:52 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

I have reached a similar conclusion.

https://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=13339.msg380800#msg380800

The problem with your "predictions" is that you give your self such a large range so you cant really be wrong. Your low end for block 139104 is 3.5% and your high end is 31.4%.

The answer to that criticism is here:

https://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=13339.msg384337#msg384337

That 'range' as you call it is a probability distribution which indicates the amount of error, and the probability of that error as tested over the available history. The average deviation from the median forecast has been a mere 5.4%

If you could please inform me of a methodology that performs better I will happily employ it.

But the point is this. My methodology for forecasting the next re-target from pricing history has proven very reliable. And it happens to be in agreement with what is being asserted by OP.

It's proven reliable because it's very easy. Most people do it without any mathematical modelling and can come within 10%. I disagree with the OP and his > 15% prediction, and we'll see who ends up being right (I've proven more successful thus far, but no one is perfect), I've done better than most just based on observation. The real difficulty lies in predicting farther out into retargets even farther down the road.

For example:

Quote

Block Number: 137088

Difficulty
Lower Extrema: 1831645
Lower Quartile: 2153150
Median: 2851755

Crazy ass far off. Even the lower extrema wasn't really close. The previous one did a tiny bit better, but not much. When your error bars are almost 100% though that is hardly a statistically valid prediction, is what I assume that other fellow meant to say (especially when it is still wrong).

mike678

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: mike678 on July 24, 2011, 02:23:52 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

I have reached a similar conclusion.

https://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=13339.msg380800#msg380800

The problem with your "predictions" is that you give your self such a large range so you cant really be wrong. Your low end for block 139104 is 3.5% and your high end is 31.4%.

The answer to that criticism is here:

https://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=13339.msg384337#msg384337

That 'range' as you call it is a probability distribution which indicates the amount of error, and the probability of that error as tested over the available history. The average deviation from the median forecast has been a mere 5.4%

If you could please inform me of a methodology that performs better I will happily employ it.

But the point is this. My methodology for forecasting the next re-target from pricing history has proven very reliable. And it happens to be in agreement with what is being asserted by OP.

There honestly isn't any better way to predict it unless you can see the future but all but two of your predictions have been around 6% off or higher. His prediction was 13% so it could very easily be 7-8%.

mike678

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Quote from: ?? on ??

I have reached a similar conclusion.

https://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=13339.msg380800#msg380800

The problem with your "predictions" is that you give your self such a large range so you cant really be wrong. Your low end for block 139104 is 3.5% and your high end is 31.4%.

mike678

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Quote from: AngelusWebDesign on July 24, 2011, 02:05:44 PM

Quote from: mike678 on July 24, 2011, 01:58:28 PM

Quote from: AngelusWebDesign on July 24, 2011, 01:53:23 PM

Actually, I've been charting the difficulty the past several sessions.

5 days into the last difficulty we maxed out at 13.4 TH/s, with about 7.2 blocks per hour.

Quote from: shivansps on July 13, 2011, 02:23:45 PM

its well over 16thash now, dot bit is showing a "instant" difficulty of 2.2xx.xxx, this does not seems to be a peak.

That second quote (shivansps) was from 7 days into the session, not 5. Difficulty reset on 7/6.

I never said anything about 7 days into the session. Last time, 5 days in, we didn't see much growth.

You do realize though that my original point is still valid that its just luck. Who cares if it was 5 or 7 days into the same period. Stop making these stupid fucking posts.

Yes the difficulty is increasing but this is luck.

AngelusWebDesign

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Quote from: mike678 on July 24, 2011, 01:58:28 PM

Quote from: AngelusWebDesign on July 24, 2011, 01:53:23 PM

Actually, I've been charting the difficulty the past several sessions.

5 days into the last difficulty we maxed out at 13.4 TH/s, with about 7.2 blocks per hour.

Quote from: shivansps on July 13, 2011, 02:23:45 PM

its well over 16thash now, dot bit is showing a "instant" difficulty of 2.2xx.xxx, this does not seems to be a peak.

That second quote (shivansps) was from 7 days into the session, not 5. Difficulty reset on 7/6.

I never said anything about 7 days into the session. Last time, 5 days in, we didn't see much growth.

1.21gigawatts

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Anusgelus is the oracle, listen to him. Get out of mining. The sky is falling. Don't buy anymore video cards teenage fools

mike678

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Quote from: AngelusWebDesign on July 24, 2011, 01:53:23 PM

Actually, I've been charting the difficulty the past several sessions.

5 days into the last difficulty we maxed out at 13.4 TH/s, with about 7.2 blocks per hour.

Quote from: shivansps on July 13, 2011, 02:23:45 PM

its well over 16thash now, dot bit is showing a "instant" difficulty of 2.2xx.xxx, this does not seems to be a peak.

AngelusWebDesign

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Merit: 250

Actually, I've been charting the difficulty the past several sessions.

5 days into the last difficulty we maxed out at 13.4 TH/s, with about 7.2 blocks per hour.

We'll see if it calms down --

But all I said was it's going to be more than 8% or even 13% -- it could be 15%. Not exactly fire and brimstone.

I'm just making a prediction, that's all. I want it to be on record.

kiwiasian

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Quote from: grod on July 24, 2011, 01:45:54 PM

Mining briefly had a completely insane ROI causing this instability in the first place. 7 day to get 100% return on investment while underlying assets generating that also appreciate? Obviously that was unsustainable.

We'll stop having increases in mining power once mining is done exclusively on dedicated ASICs, with a below 10%+inflation annual ROI and bitcoins used as a stable currency. Until then expect mining booms of various sizes driven purely by speculation -- just like $-to-bitcoin value.

TL;DR Using anything less than 50% monthly difficulty growth for your buy-vs-mine bitcoins ROI calculations remains unwise at current $-to-bitcoin pricing.

In short, bitcoin is not worth enough

mike678

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Quote from: AngelusWebDesign on July 24, 2011, 01:29:47 PM

Today we just jumped to 16 Thash/s.

I know, everyone just got lucky; we really are holding steady at 11.5 Thash/s, and it's all just a glitch or a streak of awesome luck for everyone at once. Don't worry, not a single 5770 was actually added to the network. Roll Eyes

You do realize people said the exact same thing before the last difficulty change. I can't remember what it specifically showed but it was close to 16Thash then as well. You need to just relax dude the difficulty is going to keep going up but this is definitely just luck again.

grod

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Mining briefly had a completely insane ROI causing this instability in the first place. 7 day to get 100% return on investment while underlying assets generating that also appreciate? Obviously that was unsustainable.

We'll stop having increases in mining power once mining is done exclusively on dedicated ASICs, with a below 10%+inflation annual ROI and bitcoins used as a stable currency. Until then expect mining booms of various sizes driven purely by speculation -- just like $-to-bitcoin value.

TL;DR Using anything less than 50% monthly difficulty growth for your buy-vs-mine bitcoins ROI calculations remains unwise at current $-to-bitcoin pricing.

AngelusWebDesign

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Activity: 392

Merit: 250

FYI -- the next difficulty increase will be larger than the last one (8%); maybe even larger than the one before that (13%). So can we still say difficulty is leveling off, or has leveled off -- or is it rising at a more substantial rate again?

Today we just jumped to 16 Thash/s.

I know, everyone just got lucky; we really are holding steady at 11.5 Thash/s, and it's all just a glitch or a streak of awesome luck for everyone at once. Don't worry, not a single 5770 was actually added to the network. Roll Eyes

But it does seem that capacity is being added. Because if it were just luck, it would go down just as often (statistically), and there would be 0 difficulty increase.

We're rising faster than during the last difficulty increase -- so it's as I expected. You have a "big boom" (early June, when BTC was $30), followed by an "echo boom" after difficulty starts leveling off and people shout "All clear!" as they run to the store and fill their cart with 6870's.

As many have predicted, BTC is going to have ups & downs (price, difficulty, network hashrate, you name it) as the system seeks equilibrium.

Topic: Don't expect another 8% Diff increase -- expect more - page 3. (Read 8787 times)