Double bottom @ 3.1k or lower low @ 2k? - page 3.

exstasie

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Quote from: Bossian on May 25, 2020, 01:58:07 AM

I saw famous analyst masterluc predicted a lower low around 2k if the downtrend continues Embarrassed

unfortunately looks possible as well.

He also said the bear case is invalidated if $10.5K is broken. Keep that in mind if the weekly trend does not break down soon. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/qNy2lBH5-Bearish-outcome-of-previous-ideas/

Quote from: Bossian on May 25, 2020, 01:58:07 AM

What is the most likely scenario, and why?

I still like my multi-year bullish triangle scenario:

Quote from: exstasie on March 13, 2020, 04:37:21 AM

Why? Because we are still stuck in a contracting range after 2.5 years. Bulls seem too bullish, bears seem too bearish. Everyone seems to think it's either moon or doom. As a believer in maximum pain theory, that leads me to believe both bulls and bears need to be squeezed. Structurally given the contracting range, that means squeezing bulls first and bears second.

I still like the $5,000s and $6,000s as downside targets. Same as Masterluc, I will likely discard this scenario (or at least give it low chances) if $10.5K is broken.

I don't see a strong case for $3.1K. If the market goes there, I would strongly bet on lower lows and a more prolonged downtrend. After this length of time (with bulls building positions much higher for 1.5 years) a double bottom there is very unlikely.

STT

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Quote from: Slow death on May 25, 2020, 05:06:54 AM

why the hell always talk about $3000?

3000 is seared into peoples brains as the real low after the ATH price, its likely that price keeps moving and BTC seems to have a longer moving average then many prices and no longer would keep 3000 as a low like you say. Its quite probable these years later the low would be 6000 but we did trade past that certainly in March but not really close there for the week hence it was quite bullish.
We did trade price into the 3000's area in March so the legend lives on and most think this area is where the plug hole goes for BTC when its going down the drain. I dont know thats going to happen again but its hard to imagine what equals some random virus wiping out people and causing a shutdown. I do think a second wave of virus cases happens as people are determined to ignore the risk as its not visible and I still hear not much on testing or any possible measure to end this. So the graph might say up but fundamentals in many ways show trouble could be rising hence a possible sell.

So far as this second event scenario is concerned I'd take option 1 not a lower low really.

bearexin

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You can't just claim "both scenarios are possible" and leave it at that without filling the blanks between 9k and 3k and just expect us to believe you without a doubt. I do not think neither of those scenarios are possible, I think they are impossible right now. Bitcoin is doing very well, it may have gone down a bit recently all thanks to fee's being high and transactions being high and all around bitcoin becoming something very expensive to use, but that is a temporary thing.

It is not really a forever deal and eventually we will get back on track to be great on transactions (fast and cheap) and by that time we will go up again. Just because we had a tiny bit of a problem and went down only a bit doesn't equal to us going down forever and reaching 3k and even 2k which we haven't been in over 3 years.

bitbunnny

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I don't think that at the moment there are conditions for Bitcoin price to fall that low. Of course, everything is possible and right now we can see some corrections however I don't expect some deep fall to happen.
By such low values we would really have huge panic selling that would disturb the market additionaly which is no good at all.
Right now I don't think there is a room.for fear of such low price and to my opinion at this correction Bitcoin will probably not go lower than 7000$, if this even happens.

thecodebear

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Is this a serious thread?? You actually think its gonna go back to the bottom of the 2018 bear market or lower? Technically we already got that 3000s double bottom with the pandemic panic sell. Outside of that panic sell the post-bear market local bottom was 6000s late last year. We could definitely see 7000s again soon (though it could possibly hold in the 8000s) before moving up, but anything under 7000s gets increasingly unlikely and 3000 is, well, like the predictions of 3 digit price back when bitcoin was at the bottom of the bear market in the 3000s last year.

DeathAngel

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I doubt we’ll see sub $5,000 ever again so the poll needs another few options. I don’t think $3,100 or $2,000 are on the table at all. OP you seem overly bearish & masterluc has lost credibility in crypto space, he’s wrong more often than he’s right these days.

maydna

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I don't expect to see that the lowest price but that could be possible to happen again. Perhaps, we don't want to see that lowest price, but we cannot do anything if the price really gets down to the lowest price, but we need to be ready and prepare some money to buy bitcoin at that lowest price. We will get another discount price of bitcoin if that is really happening so we can add more bitcoin in our wallet. Once the lowest price is gone, the bitcoin price will be back to the higher price, and who knows, after that lowest price, bitcoin will start a rally and the bull run will come.

stomachgrowls

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Quote from: Slow death on May 25, 2020, 05:06:54 AM

I know it will seem like the dumbest question on the planet, but I will ask it anyway. my question:

why the hell always talk about $3000?

will it be that whenever the price increases a lot we have to go back to $3000 again?

even with this pandemic the price did not fall much, so what would make the price drop to $3000?

- They might be still presuming that the strongest support is on that area since it didnt able to have a breakout when we head down to 3k price and
the market had its recovery after that.

- Not necessarily but hard crashes are one of the indicators that we might be seeing some price increase rally.

- You wouldnt know because fundamentals or news can pop out from nowhere anytime and make the market crash. It isnt something new btw.

buwaytress

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Seeing as I'm not selling in any particular circumstance, and would love to earn me some huge bags of BTC for the next 2021 or so, then I'm going to vote for a new low.

I don't think this will happen though, as we've never seen an annual low lower than the previous year, so if this happens, it'd be a first.

The only reason I think we'll go to 3k or 2k even is simply because the global economy shitstorm hasn't become apparent yet. There's hope it won't affect Bitcoin markets so badly, judging from the March display. But you never know.

Botnake

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I don't want to vote because I don't believe that price range going to happen again this year.
We've seen the bottom this year already, and I think bitcoin will just stay at $6000 at its lowest price this year as just recently, bitcoin is quite stable although if fails to break the resistance level many times.

If bitcoin will drop that low, a lot of investors will panic but some people would be happy to see it as they can start accumulating again.

Me, I don't believe we will see that low but I would not be disappointed seeing, instead, just like what whales will do, I will also accumulate and will not miss that chance.

Febo

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Quote from: Bossian on May 25, 2020, 01:58:07 AM

What is the most likely scenario, and why?

Most likely Bitcoin will hover between $6000 and $10000. If a double bottom has to happen because of all uncertainties about covid-19 recession then will happen at $4100. When? Probably at autumn this year. Maybe early winter.

Harriti

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Quote from: Bossian on May 25, 2020, 01:58:07 AM

Hi,

Both scenarios look possible. I would prefer to see a double bottom at 3.1k area (same low an January 2019). That would be very good for a trend reversal in the long term (2022 and beyond). I would finally become a bull!

I saw famous analyst masterluc predicted a lower low around 2k if the downtrend continues Embarrassed

unfortunately looks possible as well.

What is the most likely scenario, and why?

I don't think bitcoin's value will drop to $ 2k. There is no reason for investors to sell bitcoin now while the Halving event has just been completed. Besides, the pandemic is being controlled gradually and the economy is gradually reopening. That creates every favorable condition for Bitcoin to grow in the future. I guess the price of bitcoin could fall around $ 7k and bounce strongly. Don't rely on well-known financial analysts, they are whales in the market and always try to manipulate the market. Wink

ningrum

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$ 3000 or $ 2000 I feel it will not be touched, Dip has been fulfilled in March when the price dropped to $ 3800, and now the Bullish dominates,
you can regret if you do not accumulate now

Coin_trader

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That's too low percentage to occur for a double bottom scenario unless a COVID-19 2nd wave comes and continue the global economic crisis. Most of the trader that speculate that lower low are those who didn't look on fundamental analysis which is very crucial in crypto trading.

Can you give the source of the analysis you read? I want to study thoroughly his point of view for that prediction. I'm not telling that it will not gonna happen but the chance to revisit that price level is very rare. In my own TA, BTC might suffer a correction to 7k and below if it brokes the price support at 8k level within this week.

btc_angela

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Everything is possible, specially if there are news that will likely create FUD, pushing the price deep around $3k levels. We have seen this happened before, we shouldn't discount that possibility. But we all know that when the price go on that levels, bitcoin are going to recover in the next coming months and I wouldn't be surprised to see if it will rally to hit $10k again. So we will see if this double top will be validated or a new break out will occur in the next coming months.

Jating

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Probably that's where their crystal ball is saying.

But to be serious, $3.1? Why not $5k? We haven't seen that price expect for the pandemic scare, so I doubt that we can go that low again. Bulls won't allow that price to that dip, remember that they keep pushing for the five digits, but it is really a big barrier ahead of us. So if by chance the price goes on a downward spiral, I'm sure many investors will not wait for the price to hit $3k. They are going to be ready and jump on the gun to buy around $5k range, in my opinion.

Slow death

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I know it will seem like the dumbest question on the planet, but I will ask it anyway. my question:

why the hell always talk about $3000?

will it be that whenever the price increases a lot we have to go back to $3000 again?

even with this pandemic the price did not fall much, so what would make the price drop to $3000?

Vaculin

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Winding down.

That is too low but you are right it's possible.

Anything is possible in crypto and even if it will bounce back from that, we can't even be sure that it will go to the bull run.
The market is very unpredictable, if the market is very volatile, we should learn investing for short term and best technique is to always accumulate during the dip.

Chivas Regal

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Cheers!

The Covid-19 scare shows that the Bitcoin community is resilient to the kinds of market scares that will shake the fiat markets. It's likely the only ones who cashed out were either shorts that came into play when a small number of investors cashed out, or mid-term miners who didn't want to wait until the halving occurred while there was/is uncertainty around Covid-19.

batang_bitcoin

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I wouldn't want those lows to see but if it happens then so be it. I'd like to see the long term effect of it and we're counting on it somewhere 2021-2022. Are we experiencing this because miners are turning off their miners already? Regardless of that, there were instances in the past that no TA what was coming for bitcoin and that could happen this time or any time soon. I just don't want to see that we're going that back low but if it, well, I hope that I have money by that time to buy.

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