Pages:
Author

Topic: Down to zero it goes! - page 3. (Read 6695 times)

unk
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
June 25, 2011, 08:37:40 PM
#13
I can get 4.2% interest for a 3 year guaranteed treasury/whatever it's called in english deposit.
Inflation in the UK is 4.2% if measured by the CPI, 5.1% if measured by the more realistic RPI, and a bit more still if measured by how much the cost of living is increasing for the average person.

So an interest rate of 4.2% is, at best, not making any money. At worst, it's losing a few percent of real value each year. And that's before taking into account that most people will need to pay tax on any interest that they earn. And before taking into account that inflation will probably be a lot higher before this 3-year investment matures.

When I was younger, you could generally count on making 3% from a savings account after tax and after inflation. That hasn't been possible for a few decades now.

bitcoin doesn't change any of this. the inflation of fiat currencies, and its effects, are very poorly understood on these forums in general.

the income from interest came from the participation of your savings accounts in the growth of the economy. the income from the hoped-for deflation of your bitcoins (based on bitcoin's future monetary policy, because of course bitcoins are right now substantially more inflationary than any fiat currencies, monetarily speaking, and they will remain so for some time) will come from exactly the same source. if the economy does not grow in real terms, there's no way that everyone can receive positive risk-free returns; there's nothing to do but shift the existing or dwindling wealth from person to person.

i still bristle when i see people in these forums angry at the inflation of fiat currencies. the comparison to bitcoins is misleading. nobody received a dollar in 1913 and expected it to have the same purchasing power in 1999. and during the inflation that the original poster's chart shows, the united states was, with a handful of exceptions, both prospering and increasing its prosperity; the inflation of the money supply did not stop that. moreover, as i've tried to explain before, monetary policy does not force inflation's effects on people; anyone could purchase other assets (though not with infinite flexibility, given the outlawing of private holding of gold, which is a more serious regulatory intrusion than monetary inflation) with their cash if they wanted to avoid the effects of inflation. other regulations, including tax laws, have imposed limits on people's abilities to invest arbitrarily, but that is not the fault of monetary policy. the anger at the 'inflation' of 'fiat currencies' is, for these reasons, rather bizarre, and honestly the frequency with which it's repeated here increases the amateurish and fringe feel of the community.

there are a lot of things to be angry at central banks for. that the dollar inflated throughout the 20th century is not one of them.
newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 1
June 25, 2011, 01:46:10 PM
#12
I got some dehydrated food, some silver, and my first Bitcoin miner arrives on Monday. I'm ready for the Apocalypse. Let the p2p revolution begin! Send these greedy bankers packing!

REMEMBER THE ALAMO!!!!...

Actually, I don't care about the Alamo.
I'm in California!  Grin
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1003
June 25, 2011, 12:58:29 PM
#11
nice graph
donator
Activity: 826
Merit: 1060
June 25, 2011, 12:25:48 PM
#10
I can get 4.2% interest for a 3 year guaranteed treasury/whatever it's called in english deposit.
Inflation in the UK is 4.2% if measured by the CPI, 5.1% if measured by the more realistic RPI, and a bit more still if measured by how much the cost of living is increasing for the average person.

So an interest rate of 4.2% is, at best, not making any money. At worst, it's losing a few percent of real value each year. And that's before taking into account that most people will need to pay tax on any interest that they earn. And before taking into account that inflation will probably be a lot higher before this 3-year investment matures.

When I was younger, you could generally count on making 3% from a savings account after tax and after inflation. That hasn't been possible for a few decades now.
newbie
Activity: 70
Merit: 0
June 25, 2011, 12:10:23 PM
#9
I just would also say that SS is a classic "zomgwtfbbq" site in tone and usually used by people who talk about "the amero" and other such sillyness.
It's been a consistent phenomenon.
Yes, it has been. Another consistent phenomenon has been the rejection of alternative CPI measurements via guilt-by-association fallacies such as the one you present above.
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
June 25, 2011, 12:08:54 PM
#8
Oh I agree that a ton of stats are misreported or measured (NFP birth/death adjustment just as an example).

I just would also say that SS is a classic "zomgwtfbbq" site in tone and usually used by people who talk about "the amero" and other such sillyness.
It's been a consistent phenomenon.

And ever since seeing my first "zomg USD going to 0" post in 2006 on a forex related forum this has continuously been a recurring theme, month in, month out. Stuff like inflation talk, gold hyping and "one world currency" is usually not far behind. Sometimes the Rothschilds and masons get a go, too!
newbie
Activity: 70
Merit: 0
June 25, 2011, 12:04:06 PM
#7
Also lal @ shadowstats. I should just start selling tinfoil hats
How is it a conspiracy theory? It's a fact that CPI measurement techniques have changed multiple times over the last few decades, with the observed result of reporting a lower amount of inflation as compared to previous measurement techniques. Whether or not there were political motives behind these CPI changes is irrelevant when one's only goal is to accurately compare present inflation to past inflation.

I'm not interested in conspiracies, only in preserving my wealth. And to do so requires that I am able to objectively measure long-term changes in the value of the dollar. If CPI measurement techniques change over time, they necessarily must be re-adjusted to correct for these changes. This is not an argument, not a conspiracy theory, but a fact.
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
June 25, 2011, 11:59:30 AM
#6
I can get 4.2% interest for a 3 year guaranteed treasury/whatever it's called in english deposit.

Yay EUR land.


Also what bollocks in the OP. The USDX is back over 75 and it's going to move higher again, just like Gold is going to lose that 1500$ mark.

Nobody anywhere benefits from the USD "going to zero".


Also lal @ shadowstats. I should just start selling tinfoil hats for BTC, would go like hotcakes. Next to the tulips and bridges, that is.
newbie
Activity: 70
Merit: 0
June 25, 2011, 11:58:54 AM
#5
Huh wierd because most banks offer intesterest at rates better than inflation and I can still use my money to buy things?
Wow, bank rates higher than 10%?! Where do you live?
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001
Radix-The Decentralized Finance Protocol
June 25, 2011, 11:48:57 AM
#4
Huh wierd because most banks offer intesterest at rates better than inflation and I can still use my money to buy things?

Higher than the CPI, not the real price inflation.
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
June 25, 2011, 11:42:38 AM
#3
Huh wierd because most banks offer intesterest at rates better than inflation and I can still use my money to buy things?
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1008
If you want to walk on water, get out of the boat
June 25, 2011, 11:04:32 AM
#2
Lol nice graph
newbie
Activity: 70
Merit: 0
June 25, 2011, 11:00:30 AM
#1
Well, there it goes, down to zero. It had a good run while it lasted, but this was the obvious end result.

Here's the chart of its lifetime:

http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/3/9/saupload_dollar_value_chart.png

Goodbye USD, hello BTC! Why, what did you think I was talking about? Grin
Pages:
Jump to: