This down trend is so last week! Please read about the developing up trend here
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/time-for-another-bull-move-204958
Topic: Down trend --- old thread (Read 5221 times)
...though the general idea is still pretty sound.
No it is not sound. If someone would have acted on this idea they would have lost their money.
That is the opposite of sound.
Now i'm not saying that proper TA cannot give insights, but drawing a few lines is just gambling.
$100 will trigger a whole load of buys and reverse any trend. Psychologically the $100 is an important crossing point.
The 10%... this was just a nice round number... In almost any other investment especially short term, it is a large (HUGE) margin, my thoughtlessness for sure. You are completely right about error margins and accuracy with those numbers (especially lately with such tight ranges), though the general idea is still pretty sound. Some that post TA which I have followed generally have the pattern predicted right but the levels are long/short a bit. This just requires a bit of patience and a bit of knowledge to identify how much time you may have to make a decision.
all the quasi TA should just go cry in the corner they will be more wrong than right
So, it went up.
Also please be aware that these are generally guidelines, the over-all pattern of TA is generally more accurate then the exact numbers... a 100 resistance line in TA could actually be between at 85-115... so you have to be patient and careful when following the TA indicators. The "tighter" or you try and play the ups/downs the more risk/loss of opportunity you could take.
If this is true then it realy sucks.
85-115 is a +-15% error at 100.
Since the price stays within these limits most of the time it means that most of the time your error would be larger than the thing you actually try to predict.
With such an error rate you can only state the obvious about the near future.
We will go down untill we go up.
85-115 is a +-15% error at 100.
Since the price stays within these limits most of the time it means that most of the time your error would be larger than the thing you actually try to predict.
With such an error rate you can only state the obvious about the near future.
We will go down untill we go up.
Maybe it escaped your attention, but the proponents of TA rarely ever include any error boundaries when they publish any numbers.
I think, overall TA would be much more credibly and way less controversial if we'd acquire the habit to publish an error guess alongside with every number.
e.g "if the rate breaks through the support at $80 +-15% for more than 1+-5 days we'll be in a real downtrend"
It most certainly did not and i fully agree with what you say here.
Also please be aware that these are generally guidelines, the over-all pattern of TA is generally more accurate then the exact numbers... a 100 resistance line in TA could actually be between at 85-115... so you have to be patient and careful when following the TA indicators. The "tighter" or you try and play the ups/downs the more risk/loss of opportunity you could take.
If this is true then it realy sucks.
85-115 is a +-15% error at 100.
Since the price stays within these limits most of the time it means that most of the time your error would be larger than the thing you actually try to predict.
With such an error rate you can only state the obvious about the near future.
We will go down untill we go up.
85-115 is a +-15% error at 100.
Since the price stays within these limits most of the time it means that most of the time your error would be larger than the thing you actually try to predict.
With such an error rate you can only state the obvious about the near future.
We will go down untill we go up.
Maybe it escaped your attention, but the proponents of TA rarely ever include any error boundaries when they publish any numbers.
I think, overall TA would be much more credibly and way less controversial if we'd acquire the habit to publish an error guess alongside with every number.
e.g "if the rate breaks through the support at $80 +-15% for more than 1+-5 days we'll be in a real downtrend"
Well your upper trend line did seem to mark the high for today rather well. How long do you think the price will hold between your top and bottom lines?
Not an expert by anymeans but generally speaking the pattern is "over" once the upper/lower resistance levels are broken. Notice how the lines are angled and indicate (in this case) a downtrend? The idea is that the price will stay within those bounds during the downtrend. Resistance levels adjusted as time goes on.
Also please be aware that these are generally guidelines, the over-all pattern of TA is generally more accurate then the exact numbers... a 100 resistance line in TA could actually be between at 85-115... so you have to be patient and careful when following the TA indicators. The "tighter" or you try and play the ups/downs the more risk/loss of opportunity you could take.
I find it helps to think of price changes in % to keep things in perspective and to steady your hand a bit. OMG it went up $10... well that is less then 10%... do you JUMP on a 10% must not miss sale or a 30%? This view helps me from not panicking as much.
If this is true then it realy sucks.
85-115 is a +-15% error at 100.
Since the price stays within these limits most of the time it means that most of the time your error would be larger than the thing you actually try to predict.
With such an error rate you can only state the obvious about the near future.
We will go down untill we go up.
Heres my latest chart which is 3 months, on a log price scale
I'm modified my thinking in terms of a closing wedge rather than a down channel now. The red line is the top line of the down trend channel I've been drawing on charts in this thread. Down trend is about to meet long term support (you have to look at a chart going back to 2011 to see where the green line comes from!
If we assume this wedge is valid for the sake of argument. Which way will it break ?
I'm modified my thinking in terms of a closing wedge rather than a down channel now. The red line is the top line of the down trend channel I've been drawing on charts in this thread. Down trend is about to meet long term support (you have to look at a chart going back to 2011 to see where the green line comes from!
If we assume this wedge is valid for the sake of argument. Which way will it break ?
Well your upper trend line did seem to mark the high for today rather well. How long do you think the price will hold between your top and bottom lines?
Not an expert by anymeans but generally speaking the pattern is "over" once the upper/lower resistance levels are broken. Notice how the lines are angled and indicate (in this case) a downtrend? The idea is that the price will stay within those bounds during the downtrend. Resistance levels adjusted as time goes on.
Also please be aware that these are generally guidelines, the over-all pattern of TA is generally more accurate then the exact numbers... a 100 resistance line in TA could actually be between at 85-115... so you have to be patient and careful when following the TA indicators. The "tighter" or you try and play the ups/downs the more risk/loss of opportunity you could take.
I find it helps to think of price changes in % to keep things in perspective and to steady your hand a bit. OMG it went up $10... well that is less then 10%... do you JUMP on a 10% must not miss sale or a 30%? This view helps me from not panicking as much.
Thanks for the explanation, makes sense and confirms what I assumed, also good advice about the % vs $ outlook and I'm sure that's why some like to use log charts.
I guess I should have worded my question better. I was wondering how long he thought the trend would remain unbroken. The range between his top and bottom line (would this be called the channel?) is so large that on a small time scale it's quite likely the price will not break either line.
You say the price should stay within those bounds during the downtrend, but any idea how long the trend is suspected to last?
Are there other TA methods to determine this within some range of likelihood?
Well your upper trend line did seem to mark the high for today rather well. How long do you think the price will hold between your top and bottom lines?
Not an expert by anymeans but generally speaking the pattern is "over" once the upper/lower resistance levels are broken. Notice how the lines are angled and indicate (in this case) a downtrend? The idea is that the price will stay within those bounds during the downtrend. Resistance levels adjusted as time goes on.
Also please be aware that these are generally guidelines, the over-all pattern of TA is generally more accurate then the exact numbers... a 100 resistance line in TA could actually be between at 85-115... so you have to be patient and careful when following the TA indicators. The "tighter" or you try and play the ups/downs the more risk/loss of opportunity you could take.
I find it helps to think of price changes in % to keep things in perspective and to steady your hand a bit. OMG it went up $10... well that is less then 10%... do you JUMP on a 10% must not miss sale or a 30%? This view helps me from not panicking as much.
Well your upper trend line did seem to mark the high for today rather well. How long do you think the price will hold between your top and bottom lines?
Resistance is being tested right now.
If it goes through that would be a bullish sign, I'm expecting it won't and price will dip. This is only guessing based on lines of support and resistance, often support fails or resistance fails, that doesn't mean the analysis was invalid only that the market is taking on new behaviour. This sort of thing is impossible to predict with certainty.
If it goes through that would be a bullish sign, I'm expecting it won't and price will dip. This is only guessing based on lines of support and resistance, often support fails or resistance fails, that doesn't mean the analysis was invalid only that the market is taking on new behaviour. This sort of thing is impossible to predict with certainty.
Yeah certainty is clearly never an option.
I'll keep an eye on the resistance lines you and a few others draw more closely.
Thanks.
Thanks for supportive comment arepo. Don't know why people in the speculation forum slag off technical analysis so much. If you don't like it go to another forum.
no problem
and fully agreed.what's interesting is that your top channel line perfectly matches a short-term call i just determined from my analysis today -- on the daily scale we're forming a bearish wedge whose close coincides with the price touching the top of the channel you outlined. i'm expecting a downward breakout from this model, which is consistent with bouncing off of the upper moving resistance in your model.
coming to the same conclusion from two different approaches is some of the best evidence for the validity of TA.
If, and only IF they then predict the correct outcome in more than 50% of the cases.
Otherwise it's just correlated junk.
Resistance is being tested right now.
If it goes through that would be a bullish sign, I'm expecting it won't and price will dip. This is only guessing based on lines of support and resistance, often support fails or resistance fails, that doesn't mean the analysis was invalid only that the market is taking on new behaviour. This sort of thing is impossible to predict with certainty.
If it goes through that would be a bullish sign, I'm expecting it won't and price will dip. This is only guessing based on lines of support and resistance, often support fails or resistance fails, that doesn't mean the analysis was invalid only that the market is taking on new behaviour. This sort of thing is impossible to predict with certainty.
coming to the same conclusion from two different approaches is some of the best evidence for the validity of TA.
Shouldn't the conclusion being verified as accurate be a defining step for validation of evidence of TA?
I mean you could have 1000 approaches all conclude the same things but if it doesn't materialize in reality what good is it?
Arepo, I like your approach to TA, you're one of the few that admitted to making bad calls before the run-up in the last 3 months. You claimed you changed your model to hopefully more accurately predict price movements going forward. Have you been seeing more success lately than before? Are you tracking profitability of predictions you make? Seems to me they should have to beat random walk as well as Beta returns over time to be considered worth anything right?
Overall I'm not convinced TA is ever that effective. I don't know that it isn't, but I just haven't seen much to verify that it can be. I could go back and match up your predictions with history but I'm lazy and trust you to a certain extent to be reasonably objective about your performance considering you seem willing to admit when you're wrong.
As a side note part of me is hoping you are right about dipping down in near term, guess we'll find out soon one way or the other.
Heres a rough chart that I just made to update the down trend I've been looking at. Lines are drawn in pretty roughly, only one I'm confident with is top one. I think we'll have price decline down off $130 level, if we reach that high.
Its another 1 month log chart
Oh.
Mah.
Gawd.
/thread
fitty, i know this seems ridiculous to you, but this is worth man than you think. try to be more constructive
and thanks for answering my question, that was exactly it, afb. these look pretty robust and there's no doubt that the volatility is hiding a midterm downtrend.
Thanks for supportive comment arepo. Don't know why people in the speculation forum slag off technical analysis so much. If you don't like it go to another forum.
Its another 1 month log chart
Oh.
Mah.
Gawd.
/thread
fitty, i know this seems ridiculous to you, but this is worth man than you think. try to be more constructive
and thanks for answering my question, that was exactly it, afb. these look pretty robust and there's no doubt that the volatility is hiding a midterm downtrend.
Thanks for supportive comment arepo. Don't know why people in the speculation forum slag off technical analysis so much. If you don't like it go to another forum.
So, what does it take to invalidate this? If we go through $125 and stay there for for than 2 candles (4 hours)?
And will that have all the TA believers piling into the market then?
Be ready with your fiat guys...
1. zoom out to a longer term of the bitcoin price.
2. Use that chart to look at both bull and bear scenarios.
3. Stop always thinking like a bear/bull and think like a profiteer.
2. Use that chart to look at both bull and bear scenarios.
3. Stop always thinking like a bear/bull and think like a profiteer.
Thanks for supportive comment arepo. Don't know why people in the speculation forum slag off technical analysis so much. If you don't like it go to another forum.
no problem
and fully agreed.what's interesting is that your top channel line perfectly matches a short-term call i just determined from my analysis today -- on the daily scale we're forming a bearish wedge whose close coincides with the price touching the top of the channel you outlined. i'm expecting a downward breakout from this model, which is consistent with bouncing off of the upper moving resistance in your model.
coming to the same conclusion from two different approaches is some of the best evidence for the validity of TA.
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