Downward trend imminent - page 4. | Bitcointalksearch.org

S3052

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Quote from: the_thing on October 16, 2012, 10:01:21 AM

Quote from: S3052 on October 16, 2012, 01:21:55 AM

Overall, all those nuances about block halving, difficulty changes, mining issues, etc. are already all prices into the charts. It is far easier to predict price movements based on chart patterns and indicators than speculating for years about all those fuzzy factors.

No they're not, due to asymetric information and investors driven mainly by emotions. Also vast majority of investors don't run around with a calculator and market analysis formulas. Chart patterns and indicators are mostly a combination of bullshit and crowd psychology. Both of which are unrelieble as fuck. Long story short, the perfect market is a myth, because market is a sum of investors' actions. Investors are humans and humans are far from perfect.

You just made the case why charts are the key to market prediction. Human herding.

And thanks for your very polite attitude.

bitcon

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i'm thinking ASIC miners are just going to fill the gap left by all GPU miners calling it quits....

the_thing

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Quote from: S3052 on October 16, 2012, 01:21:55 AM

Overall, all those nuances about block halving, difficulty changes, mining issues, etc. are already all prices into the charts. It is far easier to predict price movements based on chart patterns and indicators than speculating for years about all those fuzzy factors.

No they're not, due to asymetric information and investors driven mainly by emotions. Also vast majority of investors don't run around with a calculator and market analysis formulas. Chart patterns and indicators are mostly a combination of bullshit and crowd psychology. Both of which are unrelieble as fuck. Long story short, the perfect market is a myth, because market is a sum of investors' actions. Investors are humans and humans are far from perfect.

S3052

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Quote from: byronbb on October 15, 2012, 05:11:13 PM

Quote from: bitcon on October 15, 2012, 11:33:32 AM

Quote from: kokojie on October 14, 2012, 08:13:02 PM

Quote from: bitcon on October 14, 2012, 07:59:48 PM

reward halving to 25@ block 210,000. going to be a lot less coins available. I can see us hitting $20 soon.

so we will produce 3600 less coins per day, which is like 10% of the daily volume just on mtgox, not to mention all the volume combined elsewhere, so it's not going to have any major effect on the price. At most we will go up 10% from whatever stable price the market will settle at.

but you do see value increasing as opposed to the speculation of the OP. If more miners decide to hold instead of pump and dump, and BTC demand increases during the reward half, there could be a drastic increase in value. we shall see. for now i will remain a long term bull.

The big hashers will be wanting to sell once ASIC comes online to recover outlay costs I would think. It's going to be interesting. Imagine you laid out 30k+ for a BFL rig only to have the difficulty go vertical, the block reward halve, and the price go down. If you could manipulate the market it would be crafty/evil to dump at the halving. A lot of people would buy because "omg less coins are being made" and miners would be pressed to get what they could.

Overall, all those nuances about block halving, difficulty changes, mining issues, etc. are already all prices into the charts. It is far easier to predict price movements based on chart patterns and indicators than speculating for years about all those fuzzy factors.

byronbb

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HODL OR DIE

Quote from: bitcon on October 15, 2012, 11:33:32 AM

Quote from: kokojie on October 14, 2012, 08:13:02 PM

Quote from: bitcon on October 14, 2012, 07:59:48 PM

reward halving to 25@ block 210,000. going to be a lot less coins available. I can see us hitting $20 soon.

so we will produce 3600 less coins per day, which is like 10% of the daily volume just on mtgox, not to mention all the volume combined elsewhere, so it's not going to have any major effect on the price. At most we will go up 10% from whatever stable price the market will settle at.

but you do see value increasing as opposed to the speculation of the OP. If more miners decide to hold instead of pump and dump, and BTC demand increases during the reward half, there could be a drastic increase in value. we shall see. for now i will remain a long term bull.

The big hashers will be wanting to sell once ASIC comes online to recover outlay costs I would think. It's going to be interesting. Imagine you laid out 30k+ for a BFL rig only to have the difficulty go vertical, the block reward halve, and the price go down. If you could manipulate the market it would be crafty/evil to dump at the halving. A lot of people would buy because "omg less coins are being made" and miners would be pressed to get what they could.

Adrian-x

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"imminent?" I'll hold for now sell anywhere above $12.63, and start buying in @ $6, and all the way down to $1.17.

bitcon

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Quote from: kokojie on October 14, 2012, 08:13:02 PM

Quote from: bitcon on October 14, 2012, 07:59:48 PM

reward halving to 25@ block 210,000. going to be a lot less coins available. I can see us hitting $20 soon.

so we will produce 3600 less coins per day, which is like 10% of the daily volume just on mtgox, not to mention all the volume combined elsewhere, so it's not going to have any major effect on the price. At most we will go up 10% from whatever stable price the market will settle at.

but you do see value increasing as opposed to the speculation of the OP. If more miners decide to hold instead of pump and dump, and BTC demand increases during the reward half, there could be a drastic increase in value. we shall see. for now i will remain a long term bull.

Vandroiy

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Quote from: Ente on October 15, 2012, 09:03:57 AM

Quote from: SkRRJyTC on October 15, 2012, 08:44:28 AM

If you look at trading volume in USD it should look more 'healthy'. When BTC goes to 10, people only need half as many to continue making transactions that they were making at 5.

Good point!
That's what you get from stareing too much at those charts.. ;-)
Funny how much it might influence you which charttype, which webpage you use!

Ente

That doesn't seem a reasonable thing to do though. If price goes to 1000000 USD and volume to 2 Bitcoins per day, does the similarly high volume in USD justify the price?

The amount of Bitcoins doesn't shrink just because price is higher. Bitcoin volume shows volume relative to current market cap, and that one went down. As a relative measure for volume, Bitcoin volume is the one to look at.

I agree that volume should not stay as high as, say, in February, but the recent drop in volume was a little fast IMO.

Ente

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Quote from: SkRRJyTC on October 15, 2012, 08:44:28 AM

Quote from: Ente on October 15, 2012, 08:29:32 AM

Quote from: mb300sd on October 15, 2012, 08:15:10 AM

Possibly related?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1273569

10k btc is significant volume being moved away from gox where it would effect the price...

I would say there are around 40k BTC volume less per day than would be, don't know, stable, healthy, good..
At least it used to be more around 50k average daily, instead of as low as 10k now.

Ente

If you look at trading volume in USD it should look more 'healthy'. When BTC goes to 10, people only need half as many to continue making transactions that they were making at 5.

Good point!
That's what you get from stareing too much at those charts.. ;-)
Funny how much it might influence you which charttype, which webpage you use!

Ente

SkRRJyTC

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Quote from: Ente on October 15, 2012, 08:29:32 AM

Quote from: mb300sd on October 15, 2012, 08:15:10 AM

Possibly related?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1273569

10k btc is significant volume being moved away from gox where it would effect the price...

I would say there are around 40k BTC volume less per day than would be, don't know, stable, healthy, good..
At least it used to be more around 50k average daily, instead of as low as 10k now.

Ente

If you look at trading volume in USD it should look more 'healthy'. When BTC goes to 10, people only need half as many to continue making transactions that they were making at 5.

Ente

legendary

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Merit: 1001

Quote from: mb300sd on October 15, 2012, 08:15:10 AM

Possibly related?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1273569

10k btc is significant volume being moved away from gox where it would effect the price...

I would say there are around 40k BTC volume less per day than would be, don't know, stable, healthy, good..
At least it used to be more around 50k average daily, instead of as low as 10k now.

Ente

mb300sd

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Drunk Posts

Possibly related?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1273569

10k btc is significant volume being moved away from gox where it would effect the price...

the_thing

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Quote from: Ente on October 15, 2012, 07:32:19 AM

Quote from: the_thing on October 15, 2012, 07:22:50 AM

>hurr durr bitcoin is about to crash, hurr durr blah blah blah
*yawn*
it's the same bullshit over and over again. everytime the price falls this FUD carousel starts and then after a few days, the price rebounds - contrary to all oh-we-are-doomed prophecies.

Nope. I don't think many believe the long-term trend is down. Many believe the long-term (aka years) trend is "sky", "moon" and then some more. Still, several things point to price going down *short term*. Just because the price surely will be up in a matter of weeks again, doesn't mean it can't "crash" some dozen percent for some days. On a long enough timescale this is noise. Noise I plan to profit on.

I concur.

Quote from: the_thing on October 15, 2012, 07:22:50 AM

again, the reason for the recent fall is purely psychological. GLBSE down? don't make me laugh. as far as I know, GLBSE was almost exclusively about investing in mining projects and ponzi schemes (mainly PPT) if you want to invest in mining projects, just browse the mining sub-fora of BitcoinTalk and you'll find plenty of oportunities. if you want to lose money in ponzi schemes or other scams, you'll find plenty of opportunities in the lending subfora. also the market capitalization of GLBSE was small, contrary to what you might think. again, GLBSE isn't NYSE or NASDAQ. GLBSE is more like a shitty local wannabe stock exchange and its function can be fully replaced by public forums.
but go ahead and sell some more. should the price fall under $10, i'll start buying en masse.

Yes, GLBSE was relatively small, between 5k and 8k BTC I read. Which translates to "no direct influence on the price". Still, GLBSE didn't make the volume go lower and lower for weeks, for example. There is more up now than just GLBSE.

Ente
[/quote]
In that case I'd like to know what caused the volume to go lower. Any problems on SR? Bad publicity (due to Pirate being investigated by the SEC for example)? Truth be told BTC is still concentrated in the USA so it's hard for me to stay informed, especially when it comes to public sentiment.

Ente

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Quote from: the_thing on October 15, 2012, 07:22:50 AM

>hurr durr bitcoin is about to crash, hurr durr blah blah blah
*yawn*
it's the same bullshit over and over again. everytime the price falls this FUD carousel starts and then after a few days, the price rebounds - contrary to all oh-we-are-doomed prophecies.

Nope. I don't think many believe the long-term trend is down. Many believe the long-term (aka years) trend is "sky", "moon" and then some more. Still, several things point to price going down *short term*. Just because the price surely will be up in a matter of weeks again, doesn't mean it can't "crash" some dozen percent for some days. On a long enough timescale this is noise. Noise I plan to profit on.

Quote from: the_thing on October 15, 2012, 07:22:50 AM

again, the reason for the recent fall is purely psychological. GLBSE down? don't make me laugh. as far as I know, GLBSE was almost exclusively about investing in mining projects and ponzi schemes (mainly PPT) if you want to invest in mining projects, just browse the mining sub-fora of BitcoinTalk and you'll find plenty of oportunities. if you want to lose money in ponzi schemes or other scams, you'll find plenty of opportunities in the lending subfora. also the market capitalization of GLBSE was small, contrary to what you might think. again, GLBSE isn't NYSE or NASDAQ. GLBSE is more like a shitty local wannabe stock exchange and its function can be fully replaced by public forums.

but go ahead and sell some more. should the price fall under $10, i'll start buying en masse.

Yes, GLBSE was relatively small, between 5k and 8k BTC I read. Which translates to "no direct influence on the price". Still, GLBSE didn't make the volume go lower and lower for weeks, for example. There is more up now than just GLBSE.

Ente

the_thing

sr. member

Activity: 546

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Proof-of-Stake Blockchain Network

>hurr durr bitcoin is about to crash, hurr durr blah blah blah
*yawn*
it's the same bullshit over and over again. everytime the price falls this FUD carousel starts and then after a few days, the price rebounds - contrary to all oh-we-are-doomed prophecies.
again, the reason for the recent fall is purely psychological. GLBSE down? don't make me laugh. as far as I know, GLBSE was almost exclusively about investing in mining projects and ponzi schemes (mainly PPT) if you want to invest in mining projects, just browse the mining sub-fora of BitcoinTalk and you'll find plenty of oportunities. if you want to lose money in ponzi schemes or other scams, you'll find plenty of opportunities in the lending subfora. also the market capitalization of GLBSE was small, contrary to what you might think. again, GLBSE isn't NYSE or NASDAQ. GLBSE is more like a shitty local wannabe stock exchange and its function can be fully replaced by public forums.

but go ahead and sell some more. should the price fall under $10, i'll start buying en masse.

Yuhfhrh

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Quote from: Mushoz on October 15, 2012, 02:30:56 AM

Quote from: vokain on October 14, 2012, 08:45:36 PM

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/low_volume_pullback.asp#axzz29KOouKNx

we were here last week

You mean that the price went up on low volume, right? So the trend is down?

Yup.

Mushoz

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Bitbuy

Quote from: vokain on October 14, 2012, 08:45:36 PM

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/low_volume_pullback.asp#axzz29KOouKNx

we were here last week

You mean that the price went up on low volume, right? So the trend is down?

Ente

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Activity: 2126

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Quote from: kokojie on October 14, 2012, 08:13:02 PM

Quote from: bitcon on October 14, 2012, 07:59:48 PM

reward halving to 25@ block 210,000. going to be a lot less coins available. I can see us hitting $20 soon.

so we will produce 3600 less coins per day, which is like 10% of the daily volume just on mtgox, not to mention all the volume combined elsewhere, so it's not going to have any major effect on the price. At most we will go up 10% from whatever stable price the market will settle at.

Absolutely.
It was shown several times that mining or difficulty has no effect on price. The other way is true.

Ente

vokain

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http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/low_volume_pullback.asp#axzz29KOouKNx

we were here last week

kokojie

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Quote from: bitcon on October 14, 2012, 07:59:48 PM

reward halving to 25@ block 210,000. going to be a lot less coins available. I can see us hitting $20 soon.

so we will produce 3600 less coins per day, which is like 10% of the daily volume just on mtgox, not to mention all the volume combined elsewhere, so it's not going to have any major effect on the price. At most we will go up 10% from whatever stable price the market will settle at.

Topic: Downward trend imminent - page 4. (Read 9786 times)