Topic: Drop of hashrate for Polaris cards incoming - page 6. (Read 13939 times)

I've done several posts last year on the increase in average block times - most were out by 40 days. It has become one of the most difficult aspects to write about or post on.

Nearly, all of the old published estimates are wrong, because it has changed with upgrade forks. Consequently, people are no longer taking it into consideration and are simply adding GPU rigs for mining Ethereum.

In the last month, about 4,000 less Ethereum are available in mining rewards per day. But, no new and accurate estimates have been published on the internet (this year), that could be used to know what will happen in next 5 months.  

10 millions is way too much, the correct figure is something in the 2 millions range.

 Not dead but gonna be bad.

 I did a calculation a few days back - and came up with a ballpark estimate of something like 10 MILLION AMD cards having been added to the ETH mining rolls over the last 3 months alone, and a total of ballpark 17 Million total - this was a conservative estimate as I assumed 30 Mh/card (which is marginal-high for a RX 480/580 with bios mods and high overclock, close to a hair high for the R9 290/290x/390/390x with bios mods and high overclocks, right ballpark for the GTX 1070 with high memory overclock, and quite a bit high for the RX 470/570 even with BIOS mods and high overclock - almost all other cards that CAN mine ETH have significanly lower hashrates, or almost no presence like the GTX 1080ti).

 Did the same calculation on ZEC - and came up with more like *1* million cards total.
 Nothing else came even close.


 ETH mining dies, everything else is going to get SWAMPED by ex-ETH miners looking for new homes for their rigs - and profitability will crash bigtime 'till folks just start shutting down rigs in quantity, and even THEN it's going to be the folks in Very Low Cost Electric areas being the ONLY ones making a profit.

 Continued price rise on non-ETH coins will mitigate this somewhat - but it's gonna take a LOT of climb to avoid the crash destroying profitability entirely for most small miners and even SOME mid-to-large farms.


 THAT is when I predict the next "mining crash" will happen - but it's still months off at the soonest, shouldn't happen overnight given the plans for ETH to phase in POS gradually, and SOME of us have made provisions to survive when it does happen.


 I strongly suspect that a lot of the folks "unloading RX cards on eBay" are more about taking advantage of the current GOUGE pricing as opposed to dumping still-profitable mining cards 'cause they're worried about a crash that's several months away at the soonest.
 I've been strongly tempted to put my pair of RX 470s up on cragslist and see if they'll sell at some crazy-high price.


 BTW - anyone else noticed that GTX 1070 pricing is climbing a LOT and AVAILABILITY IS CRASHING HARD?
 I wonder how much of that is ETH miners going for the "at current AMD crazy pricing GTX 1070 is NOW THE HASH/$ CHAMP for ETH mining" cards, and how much is NVidia using available foundry capacity to stock up on whatever the new stuff is they mentioned at their last Earnings Call (a couple-three weeks back or so).

 Keep in mind that a foundry has a lead time measured in WEEKS even for customers the size of AMD and Nvidia, between "put the order in" and "deliver chips".



 Nice thing from my point of view - my R9 290s are all paid off long since on ETH mining, my R9 280Xs are working on other stuff (that's not as profitable but pretty close, and more satisfying), and my lower-end AMD stuff is mostly also working on other stuff with higher satisfaction value but lower profitability (those cards though have never been big profit makers).

 Moo!

He probably mined and held a ton of eth while it was $10 and could probably replace all his 470s with 1080tis

yupp all the noobs thinking these will see newegg will be sorely mistaken, i bet the first batches are damn near already sold out, us plebs wont see them for a while
idk im happy im a Nvidia miner mainly, ill keep 1080ti's, buy top of the line, and get easy 75% resale after i ROI x3-5x , the 1080ti is and will be profitable for prob 2 years

Poor, poor ETH babies...

MEH!

Back to the mine, holy crap i feel bad for yun99 :/ that dudes got ALOT invested in AMD mining

They listed it in CZ with 24 months warranty for about $300.

The drop was 0.1 MH/s. So isn't that like 0.35%. Who calculated 2%.

Looks like difficulty went up 4% in the last 24 hours; the 0.35% doesn't really bug me.

Those cards are only for mining farms, not being sold to the public except maybe some shops in China.

Even if P106-100 will become available, how many will buy them (with 3 months warranty and no resale value).
Let's say that the difficulty will raise for 10% (with the P106-100) then due to rx series drop in hashrate it will drop 2%, so total raise in difficulty 8% instead of 10%
If you consider the upcoming panic sale of rx series (check ebay) until they get their new cards (which you can get 2 nvidia 1070 cards for every 4 amd cards you sell due to price difference) and nvidia cards hashrate is a little lower than rx cards, I think difficulty will drop more.
Also people are switching to the Zcash train...

Just a thought...

p106-100 incoming, so no.

Isn't the 2% drop in hashrate (globally due to more than 80% of miners use rx4xx or rx5xx cards) going to get difficulty to drop also?

The amount of AMD bashing in this thread is just ridiculous.

Some people are in denial, they don't want to accept the simple facts.

at epoch 170, gtx 1060 will outperform any polaris card.

I dont know what you are smoking but he is 100% saying he personally checked for workarounds: "I checked possible workarounds"

Then goes on to say "So probably this hashrate drop cannot be fixed, at least on miner software level"

Its all there in plain text. Deal with it, Rx cards will be shit for mining over the next 6 months.

Check eBay people are offloading RX cards in droves, "barely used" "tested for 2 weeks" BS but we all know they were mining cards.

"I see the speed drop. I checked possible workarounds, at least for Polaris, they failed. So probably this hashrate drop cannot be fixed, at least on miner software level."

When he says THEY, he reffer to minergate, and he says probably, so how you are so certain about that?

No, he said it CAN NOT BE FIXED.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.19652577

Your 480's will NOT be better than 1060's a few months down the road. You'll be left holding the bag if you hang on to those 480's. Actually I prefer you hold on to them. Dont sell them, you're right. You'll have no issues at all.  

Calm down my people claymore just analysed the situation(today quick peek), he ill figure something out

you can also mine Musicoin and set auto exchange to eth in bittrex for example,

You can mine expanse, you can mine ubiq,

stop talking no sense shit like polaris is dead

my 480s ill aways be better them the shit 1060 in dual mining, even on dag 4248328946324632

Its not a few percent.... after some months people will feel the pain. The main point is, RX cards are not sustainable(over the next 6 months) for mining now. Its a fact at this point, confirmed by claymore.

Ethereum will go PoS eventually, losing a few percent is not a big deal. Those Polaris chips will continue to be great for any other crypto.