Thanks for the reply. It's important to flesh all these things out.
I'd like to put up an offer for trading my future btc-xt for your future btc-core at a rate of 1:3 for the amount of 0.01btc. Meaning I think btc-core coins will be at least 3 times more valuable than btc-xt coins and I want to put my money where my mouth is.
[...]
I send 0.01btc to the address
The counterparty sends 0.03btc to the address.
[...] => My balance goes up by 0.03btc-core and down by 0.01btc-xt
The trade of my 0.03btc-xt for his 0.01btc-core is completed.
I hope the middle part is a typo and not some way to trick a 1:3 ratio into a 3:1 ratio
So to clarify: You send 0.03 btc and I send 0.01 btc and in the end you receive 0.04 btc-core and I 0.04 btc-xt?
Yes thats correct, well spotted.
Probably the ratio way of writing things shouldnt be used. Instead we could write 3 xt/core (three xt coins per core coin) or 0.333 core/xt in line with how other currency pairs are written.
A few special cases may need clarification. What if the 75 % majority is reached but then the fork never happens because before January everyone is urged to abandon bip101? What if the chain doesn't split because nobody produces a big block until the timeout is reached? What happens if almost every miner updates and the bitcoin-core chain grows only by three or four block in total before it stops, or if there is not even a single block? What if one of the chains stops before the multisig can be paid back? What if a different consensus than bip-101 is reached and that caused a fork?
My suggestion would be to only consider the fork to have happened if there are 20 blocks each on two disjoint chains, one of which contains a >1MB block and the other compatible to the current core. In that case the bet counts and if the 0.04 btc can't be paid back on one chain because that chain stopped that is the problem of the loser. As timeout date we could say April 1st 2016, 0:00 UTC and the 20th block on each chain has to occur before then (timestamp of the block). It can be extended anytime (even after the deadline) if both parties agree; it can also be shortened, e.g., if both parties agree that it is impossible that there will be a fork at all.
Yes I think that's probably fair.
The 20 blocks (or another number, maybe 6, or even 100 which is the coinbase maturity time) is a good idea because it reduces the likelyhood that the core chain will catch up and overtake the XT chain that then dies. The XT might fork away again later and become much more longer lived.
What if the 75 % majority is reached but then the fork never happens because before January everyone is urged to abandon bip101? What if the chain doesn't split because nobody produces a big block until the timeout is reached?
If a hardfork never happens then it hasn't happened. For the actual definition we could go by the one from here
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Hardfork What if a different consensus than bip-101 is reached and that caused a fork?
For me, these futures contracts are only for btc-xt coins. For a definition of those we could say anything that follows bip101.
https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0101.mediawiki