Topic: Economy after COVID-19 - page 11. (Read 9008 times)

I had also explored about the possibility of a spike created as a result of the Holi celebrations. But my contacts vehemently deny that it is possible. One factor that they point out is that there was absolutely no spike after the new year celebrations (the number of cases on the contrary went down in January). I know that new year celebrations are quite big in India and there was no social distancing or government restrictions at that point of time. The situation was quite relaxed back then. Then suddenly during the first week of April, the cases started exploding all of a sudden.

One explanation that I have heard is about the UK strain. In India, it was first reported from the state of Punjab. Then it spread to other states in North India. I don't think that Holi was the trigger, because it is not celebrated in South India. However, the recent wave impacted South Indian states as well.

Not only poor countries but also economic powers are also severely affected by the epidemic. America is an example, I didn't know you noticed when the epidemic affected their employment so much. I am also really scared that if this situation goes long and there is no solution, it will lead to even worse consequences.

Large crowds are the ideal environment for the widest possible spread of the virus, and even such wonderful holidays as Holi / Festival of Colors. If everyone is at home and has little contact (quarantine), the rate of transmission from one person to another slows down dramatically. And the more close contacts, the more transmission channels, there is pure physics of transmission. Those. just a new virus will not give an outbreak, which, in general, is proved by other countries that also suffer from 2-3 waves and new and mutations, but adhere to strict restrictive measures. IMHO - in the first place, among the reasons for the explosive growth, most likely mass celebrations and events, or rather large gatherings of people.
Another question - is there statistics on how many people take part in these mass events?

By the way, if you look at the same Brazil, you will notice that between the carnival in 2020 (March 2020) and the beginning of a noticeable increase in the disease, the same approximately 1.5 months can be traced (May 2020).

I will add another example from life - despite the fact that in Ukraine there are not a full 40 million people, but in the capital there are about 4 million people, this is absolutely not commensurate with the population of India, but as soon as, after the new year, many decided that "the disease is controlled ", and began mass visits to shopping centers, cinemas, restaurants, pubs, etc. - after 1.5 months we received a "result" - a noticeable surge and an increase in the detection of new diseases. True, at first we pretended that everything was fine, and then realized that we were on the verge of a new explosion of the disease, and introduced another quarantine in many regions of the country, including the capital.
I will also add that the period is 1-1.5 months, this is exactly the period when a critical mass of carriers and primary cases is formed, after which an explosive growth of the disease begins, this is quite consistent with the model of the spread of the virus.

Our activities are still limited to this day, even though we have almost two years of the Covid 19 pandemic, we can't go anywhere and very sad I can't back to my family because our government not allowed for go home with this pandemic. Not any ideas how to stop this virus although thousand vaccine have distributed still not any solution yet until now to make pandemic ended.

The major festival (Holi) occurred two months back and I don't think that there was any spike as a result of that. IMO, the sudden spike in the number of new infections results from the highly contagious double-mutant strain (B.1.617) of the virus that has been discovered in India. Many of the countries that are badly hit by CoVID 19 have reported similar strains (P.1 for example, which was first reported form Brazil). I would argue that the new strain is causing an explosion in the new cases, and not any mass events.

Do not take my post as an attempt to offend you, I am with peaceful ideas

I am talking about the fact that when the same disease spreads, in the presence of differences in different sections (morbidity, mortality, vaccine efficacy, drug efficacy), systematicity should be traced. And if there are NOTICEABLE differences, then there must be a reason to justify them. For example (conditionally) - geographical - in "cold" regions, some diseases from "warm countries" have minimal chances of spreading, and vice versa. As far as I know, no one has genetic innate immunity to this virus, and the temperature does not greatly affect it. The population density, the level of antiviral measures, the level of vaccination, etc. are more influenced. Agree - this is logical.
I absolutely trust you, and that is why I asked the question - in India in the near future there were no events / holidays that were accompanied by mass events? This is one of the options explaining the "vertical" graph of the growth of new infections.
Once again - I am not trying to comment and draw conclusions on the counting in India, I want to understand the reason for the sudden, abnormally, explosive growth of new infections.

I am sure that a lot of poor countries including mine would be economically devastated after this pandemic considering that there was a lot of revenue and workforce that was lost during the pandemic and recovery is going to be difficult, hopefully we can see some policy changes after this pandemic.

Listen. I have lived in India for a long time, although I am not a resident of that country right now. I still have a lot of relatives and friends over there, and I have a good idea about the situation there. You are someone who is residing in Ukraine and have no idea about how things work in India. You don't want to take facts in to consideration and blindly want to argue that all the data is manipulated. The simple fact is that Asian countries have fared much better than the European or American countries as far as CoVID 19 is concerned. And this is despite the fact that the European/American nations hoarded all of the quality vaccines.

Do you understand what the problem is? India's statistics, have "anomalies", from general, less standard statistics. Just like that, there are no anomalies! Anomaly is an indicator of an unknown process affecting the indicators ... Why I talked about data manipulation - the picture is very similar to the data manipulation that our government "does".
I am very worried about the "shooting" almost vertically upward incidence graph for just a few days. In other countries, 2 and following waves have a growing chart, a wave. In India now - the candle is up. Tell me - in India in the near future there were no mass holidays with festivities and mass festivals?

India is currently undergoing it's second wave of CoVID 19 pandemic. Similarly, Brazil is going through the third wave. Many other countries have already gone through the third and fourth waves of this pandemic. I am not a resident of India right now, so it is impossible to get an idea about what is going on there. Still, from what I have heard from my friends suggest that there is no large-scale manipulation of the mortality data.

Thanks for the clarification!
Yes, I understand perfectly well that India is the largest country in terms of population, and, conventionally, 1 million for India is not equal to 1 million for example for Spain. BUT:
- Such a sharp jump in growth in a VERY short period is very strange
- Mortality - I think it is too early to talk about this indicator, I am sure that there is a problem called "insufficient diagnosis of the causes of death." It would be more correct by the end of the year to impose on the graph the ACTUAL adjustment of population decline / mortality, with the dynamics of morbidity.
For example, in my country, the government manipulates these indicators quite noticeably, so I assume that in other countries, for the sake of its own benefits, this can happen

350,000 infected, but less than 1% mortality rate. In Brazil they are reporting more number of deaths every day, from 70,000 or 80,000 infections. Yes.. there is a 20x increase in the number of new cases and the situation is really bad here. But India is a country with a population of 1.4 billion. India hasn't become "one of the leaders" in morbidity. The morbidity rate is still less than 1%, despite the emergence of the double-mutant strain.

According to you, a week ago the situation in India was quite positive - vaccination, "innate high immunity of the population", a low spread of the disease, a positive situation ... And suddenly a sharp increase in infection begins, hundreds of thousands of new cases are detected, India becomes one of the " leaders "in morbidity? What do you think caused this change in the situation? 2 mVrts per day revealed approximately 15,000-16,000 infected per day, now 350,000, and this is a 20-fold increase!

With all due respect to you, my question is - how can relatives assess the death rate across the country? To assess mortality, it is necessary to unambiguously identify the deceased, in whom the cause of death was precisely the lesions caused by direct or indirect exposure to the virus.
Why is the death rate so high in the USA? Because there is a much higher level of identification of causes of death. Do not take it as an insult, but I have an assumption that in India, Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, as well as other countries with abnormally low mortality rates, the level of determining the causes of death is significantly lower, and the coverage of all deaths by this process.
Constant illness with seasonal or bacteriological diseases does not form the immune response of the system against the corona virus, but I correctly understood the phrase "Indians have constant exposure to flu-virus and therefore their natural immunity is better." ? Even if immunity was developed, then there would be no high incidence rate. immunity would not have allowed to get sick.

And yet - I propose to do the following:
1.Take the world ranking in terms of living standards (data are available for 2020), this is not an indicator of income or wealth, it is an integral indicator of many parameters - from the level of income, medical care, etc.
2. Superimpose on it the relative mortality rate
If you do this, you will notice a very clear correlation: the higher the level of this rating, the higher the relative mortality rate, and vice versa - with a decrease in the quality of life - the relative mortality decreases! Isn't it weird? It seems that living conditions, health, medicine, medicines are better ... But everything becomes clear if you evaluate the quality of medicine, coverage, "purity" of statistics. I do not want to offend the people of Bangladesh, for example, in my country (Ukraine) there is a very similar picture that I have seen since March last year. I can say one thing - there is a very noticeable dynamics in the detection of infection and high-quality diagnosis of causes of death, with the dynamics of an increase in the level of provision of hospitals with good equipment, tests, etc. The last half of the year in Ukraine began to identify a lot more cases, more began to identify the causes of death from Covid and its associated problems. Previously, they often wrote "cause of death: bilateral pneumonia" or "acute heart failure", although these were the consequences of Covid - lung damage, or the failure of the cardiac system from a high temperature.
In a word, the main reason for such low rates that you are talking about is most likely an insufficient level, or small coverage, of detecting and diagnosing a disease.

I can't speak for Mexico, because I don't have any information about that country. But I have relatives in India and I can assure you that the number of deaths they are reporting from India are very close to the real numbers. The truth is that the mortality rate is much lower in India. But this is not due to any work done by the government. Indians have constant exposure to flu-virus and therefore their natural immunity is better. Across the South Asian region (Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka.etc), you can find the same scenario. On the other hand, the highest mortality rate for CoVID 19 was reported from the Latin American region, which includes Mexico.

I think in terms of vaccinating it must be done simultaneously. thus reducing the space for the virus to develop. because at this time activity has started to normalize, it is feared that the virus will still be easy to reproduce

It was customary to tell "ballads" about the "imminent end of the United States" in one "most powerful country" that collapsed not so long ago due to the fact that it could not feed itself. But according to her statements, for more than fifty years, "the United States has already stood with one foot in the grave"
Now some are continuing this tradition. But they do not understand one thing - in order for the country to have insoluble problems, there must be real processes of degradation - of society, economy, politics, ...
The United States today, firstly, did not have such a set of problems, and secondly, secondly, the whole world depends on the dollar, and any amount of printed new money that will go to support the US economy and citizens will not actually create inflation or similar problems, they will be absorbed by the world market.
Well, and most importantly, the rates of disease and mortality in the United States are so high, in comparison with other countries, only then that in the United States at a higher level, and more globally, an information collection system is built. Can you, for example, give a 100% guarantee that, for example, in India or Mexico, the incidence and death rates from Covid correspond to at least 90% of the real picture?

question is for how long vaccine will protect our immune sistem, and how will it take. when will look on both sides its not good at all

will see all that in few years, situation isnt good at all. im not sure how long will it stand

Herd immunity is possible. It is possible to manufacture up to 15 billion doses of the vaccine per year, but the issue lies with all the regulations and the slow approval process. The EMA in European Union has refused to approve the Sputnik V vaccine, because it is manufactured and patented in Russia. This is what happens when the governments dictate everything and refuses their population to have a proper choice. The EU is facing a surge in new cases and deaths, and yet they have refused to approve non-Western vaccines.