Topic: effect of Tether on bitcoin price (Read 578 times)

The more usdt are being issued and the more bitfinex liabilities (as finex usd running in bitfinex exchange) then the more the total marketcap of all cryptos arises.

The problem is that usdt(tether) is not redeemable directly for real usd. This can be seen from the total supply of usdt. If usdt was directly redeemable for usd  there would be random decreases in usdt supply. Instead there is only an exponential increase of usdt supply.

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/

So when someone has usdt and wants to withdraw real usd, he has to  buy first some cryptocurrencies and then he must exchange the cryptocurrencies for usd in a crypto <=> fiat exchange and afterwards to withdraw the usd to his bank account. So real usd exits the system but usdt is being kept into the cryptomarket giving it a faulty inflated total market cap. You can compare it with some countries with hyperinflation  which causes the prices of goods to skyrocket.

What is the real total marketcap of all cryptocoins?
A rough estimation would be bellow.
Lets say:
T= total usdt issued (Tether)
F=total finex fiat liabilities
U= total real fiat kept in crypto<=>fiat exchanges like bitstamp, gdax, gemini ,ect.. and supports the prices with bids in the orderbooks

If    A= U / (U + F +T)  ,    A=(total fiat) / (total fiat +issued usdt + total finex liabilities)

Then the REAL market cap of all cryptocoins should be  A x current total market cap = A x 250B $ at the moment
Taking into consideration the fiat sitting in the orderbooks of fiat to crypto exchanges (assuming that are legit exchanges) a rough estimation would be:

U =400M
F= lets say 300M (total finexUSD in the accounts of finex users)
T=640M
 =>
A=0.3

In conclusion REAL combined total market cap of all cryptos should be  A x 250B$ = 0.3 x250 =75B$
For example if tomorrow the supply of a fiat currency doubles in a country then we expect the prices of goods to double as well.
The biggest risk right now is taken by usdt holders, long term investors and bitfinex users

to be fair, there is always some fluctuation on the open markets. we should only expect that 1 USD = 1 USDT exactly when redemption by tether.to is taking place.

otherwise there are traders hedging the risk of tether failure vs. traders who need USDT to move money to other exchanges to buy altcoins. when the market starts pricing in tether possibly imploding, then it’s time to worry. anything in the 0.9 - 1.05 range is normal for the past 6+ months, though.

I noticed this few days ago but the price was fluctuate november 21 the price drop a lot but the price was increasing back so i think the effect of this news was already been done..
The price of bitcoin right now is really stable but i feel that those who are still holding usdt token will convert back into bitcoin and expect that the price will increase.. This is just base in my own speculation if what would be the effect of tether in the future..

Though it is a pity that this kind of thing is happening at the time when bitcoin and the whole ecosystem are trying to develop its image for a long terms purpose I think this is going to affect bitcoin adversely. Since that 19 we have not make any significant progress in price and bitcoin is trapped between  $8065 and a little above  $8300. However, I think as at today the infect of that news is over and everything has been stabilize.

98c is not such a big discount. Tether has always traded at +- 1c, even when there was belief that it could be redeemed for $. When this belief goes, you will see the bottom knocked off tether. The collapse will actually hurt Bitcoin as well.
Unless Tether's assets are audited, people should just refuse to accept tethers.

Looks like tether is having some big problems right now, just look at their atm's price, each ether is worth $0,98 each one, it is very shady because it was supposed that one ethere was going to be exactly what a dollar is worth. What is going to happen when it reaches a higher marketcap than now? it is going to be more than one dollar or it is just fake? i have been reading this since yesterday and it is very strange because it was supposed to be one dollar each, just like i said before.

Yeah. We shall find out soon whether their withdrawals through their new Polish bank work.

The signs about something wrong at Bitfinex have been there for ages. But people insist on trading there because of margin and because they allow peer-to-peer lending at rates much higher than on Poloniex.

This proves they can print out as much tether they like despite their real USD holding in their banks which they claim they will never do that. This might not effect price right now but all this un-accountable tether can be the real reason behind current huge pump rally we are seeing throughout this year. This might lead to ultimate bitcoin bubble burst.

Tether is not like bitcoin or not decentralized, so they can easily fork coin to make hacked USDT unusable.

Actually it did had a big effect to the price of bitcoin, if you had noticed that last time the price from $8,200 it went down to $7,700 so you think that's not a big deal and didn't made an effect?


Those Ethereum's weren't hack but it were locked up and they don't have any way to withdraw it now. Hacking is robbing but on this incident, I don't think it is hacking. And those hundred millions of dollars will be stuck up forever unless they'll find a way of resolving it and some devs are suggesting an hard fork.

but these things don't happen slowly or with prior warning.
one day everything is fine and people are happily trading and withdrawing. the next day when they make a withdrawal the system tells them their withdrawal request is being processed but in reality it is stuck forever and they will never be paid. it has already happened like this multiple times with different exchanges.

so far they are working fine with everything that is being thrown at them. with the hack and then their bank closing their accounts. curious to see how much more they can handle.

I'm not surprised. That was expected, given the magnitude of the FUD (hit pieces from the New York Times)... but just like the bank run subsided after the hack last year, I think this will too. I think they'll bounce back because they just got USD banking back online, and now have EUR deposits/withdrawals.

Kraken is also having lots of performance issues these days, and they are the BTCEUR leader. Bitfinex just added BTCEUR to compete with them. I'm curious to see how that turns out. Personally, I dislike both exchanges, but I'm really at my wit's end with Kraken....

The tether hack hasn't made a big effect upon the bitcoin. These kinds of hacks were quite common, even recently a large sum of ethereum got frozen. Other than that in the past through the same address used for hacking at present has been used to hack five million worth of bitcoin which at present is valued to be one hundred and fifty million dollar.

There seems to be a bit of an exodus of coins and money from bitfinex. See

https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/7eu986/with_17_of_their_btc_cold_wallet_balance_drained/

If people can get their money safely out of bitfinex, there is no harm done. If they can't, it will be another Mt Gox.e

It's a Bitfinex-centric issue. So all we need to do is look at the Bitfinex or USDT price vs. the rest of the market. If the market was concerned, and Bitfinex traders were worried about the money in Bitfinex's custody, then a price premium would develop. Instead, the Bitfinex price has remained fairly equal with Bitstamp and Coinbase, and at this moment is actually lower.

That tells me it's already being priced in right now. The Tether FUD might be the reason that the rally stalled shortly after making new ATHs. Money is clearly flowing into alts, though, so I suspect this is just a bump in the road before more rallying.

seems like cryptocurrency can not live without drama,
i am expecting something like this will happen in the future but did not expect it would be this fast.
just curious what will they do to take it back from people aka recovery ?
there're a lot of tokens had been hacked and they said want to recover it back ?
i do not think it will effect bitcoin price too much because we already saw a drop a day ago or two because of it.
the only problem that we will face is tether crisis that will happen in upcoming days,it would be better to sell it off before that 'recovery' thing.
or even in my opinion it's a sign for Bitcoin to take another action,
to be honest i do not believe it what they said about hacked,it was more like a preparation for them to face another run.
that is why they claimed the hacker moved it to unauthorities Bitcoin addresses.

Tether is a shitty altcoin, i dont know why they allowed it to increase that much, they were supposed to be a quiet altcoin that was going to be created only to create a new way to sell bitcoins for fiat without having to withdraw that money.

They have speculated with this a lot, what is going to happen when it reaches their maximum supply? One tether is going to be worth more than $1, maybe it can touch $1,05 by some time, maybe $1,20.

And that is not fair, because it was just going to be a replacement of the real dollar, only that it is not backed up by anything.

They have been "hacked" but i dont believe in them after all, they are just an altcoin that had a lot of inflation during the last few months. How is it possible that ether did just had less than 100 million dollars on their marketcap in less than four months ago, and now it has more than 600 million?
It is impossible, it makes no sense, they are obviously being manipulated by a third party (bitfinex; who owns more than 30% of the total ether supply)
Just remember my words, once that tether reaches the 900 million supply, it will explode, so better to do not have your money in this altcoin.

I sent an article about few weeks ago about tether and today we are talking about tether crisis.
This crisis is going to grow day by day and we will see some big corrections on bitcoin price.

That Tether affair will not have long term effects on Bitcoin. As stated above me, Bitcoin quickly recovered after a crash which was small anyway.
I used to have some USDT on Poloniex when I was waiting for the dips so I could buy more bitcoins when the price dropped. But now I change bitcoins to actal Euro fiat currency on Kraken when I try to catch those dips. And I can withdraw that Euro to my bank account anytime if I want.
Some people are even saying that Tether company was lying the whole time and they didn't actually back every USDT with 1 USD so this hacking might be fake and used  just as excuse for they because they cannot really prove that Tether is not backed by dollar.

the tether hack that happened a while ago and the news that you are referring to caused yesterday's drop of $500 back from the ATH and it only lasted about 5-6 hours before price went back up again.

from what I have seen, the thing about tether is that it is not really trusted and mainly it is used for temporary measures like when someone wants to transfer USD-value between exchanges. and most big traders don't trust it at all.

check this topic out too, it has some good arguments: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/whatll-happen-when-usdt-collapses-2435905