Topic: Effects of war on bitcoin - page 4. (Read 504 times)

You better provide dates or data to support your claim. Even if that were true, how would you explain the previous bear market then? As far as I remember correctly, there is no war back then. You should remember that correlation doesn't mean causation. Sure, countries in war probably mean people are less inclined to invest in high-risk assets, but it is hard to judge how much that contributes compared to other factors.

I believe financial ideology contributes more toward their crypto attitude. Not every government purely decides based on profit. Even if there is no war and every country is doing trades with each other, you can't expect all of them to have the same attitude to crypto. CMIIW.

I think the regional conflicts don't have any direct impact on price of Bitcoin, however such geographical conflicts may have significant  negative effect on global economy and financial markets. Consequently , such conflicts cause rapid increase in inflation due to disruption in supply chain, which ultimately creates negative sentiment among investment communities and prices of high risk financial assets, such as stocks and bitcoin start falling. This is how the  regional conflicts may have cascading impact on financial markets, ultimately affecting the prices of financial assets.

Maybe it's just one part of the equation, but as we have seen, the war has been ongoing for more than a year but the bitcoin price has recovered already. From the lowest lost of $15,500, we have doubled it and reach $31k already. It's just on the correction right now, nevertheless, we can't blame the war as the only reasons. And the timing, the war started when we are in the beginning of a bear market.

We have the terra luna and then the ftx collapsed that contributed last year for the price really going down low. And then now the banking crisis in the US and in EU, but it seems that it has a positive impact as investors are looking for crypto to hedge their wealth.

I don't think you're right about Bitcoin and the war. Bitcoin can suffer from panic, surrounding global economic uncertainty due to certain events. But it doesn't have to happen and doesn't always happen. The full-scale invasion (because Russia's war against Ukraine itself started in 2014) started on February 24, 2022. If anything, BTC went up back then, namely from $37k on February 24 to $44.5k on March 1, and then up to $47k on March 31. The biggest impact on the price happens at the beginning, and Bitcoin was doing alright then. What's been going on with the price later has nothing to do with the war, IMO. Moreover, the war also gave new publicity and usage of Bitcoin, as Ukraine started actively accepting Bitcoin donations.

Wars affect bitcoin prices in a way that it put fear on the funds of investors and derisk their money from their investments and convert it into available cash in case of the worst case scenario. Then it will start to set bearish prices on BTC and other assets like stocks, gold, and indices.

Sometimes wars and high-impact news also serve as manipulation in the market that will cause a false move and fluctuation in price swings. When OP state that Bitcoin seem to remained statics only implies that BTC is in a good stance because despite of negative global events, BTC still finds another support level to  remain in  a good spot to buy and invest in the long run.

Bitcoin is also a speculative asset, so the impact of the world's macro news cannot be avoided, but to say that the collapse of bitcoin in 2022 is due to war is completely inaccurate and also not caused by inflation. If we look closely, 2022 is also when we enter a bearish cycle after reaching ATH in November 2021. So I think whether there is war, economic crisis or not, the market will still slump, but with the impact of the other two factors, the situation will become worse.

What I'm thinking is, if after halving happens and the world economy still hasn't recovered, the war isn't over, do we still have a cyclical bull season?

You mixed things up in this write-up but I will try to explain in the shortest possible way. Inflation is mostly responsible for the fall of Bitcoin, and most countries' issues might not have any noticeable impact on Bitcoin unless the coin is popularly paired with their currency, that's how the market works. The exception of course is the news of adoption and retriction/ban by countries. Bitcoin can only be significantly impacted by the economies of the countries of the most popular currencies, in which the USD is number 1.


Point of correction, the price of Bitcoin started falling in 2021, not 2022 when the Russia-Ukraine war started. Mind you, the importance of the country that can cause the effect matters to the global economy, not just anyhow country. And on record, Bitcoin has been falling before the Russia-Ukraine war, surely, the war aggravated it as it increased global inflation as the world depends on the two countries for crude oil, vegetable oil, grains, raw materials and many more. However, the world is finding alternatives, and you can see it as the war continues, yet Bitcoin has increased in value.

There is nothing like the sentiment of countries here, inflation is the main consideration, and despite the challenges the economies of most counties are facing right now, Bitcoin still managed to rise since the beginning of this year and might touch another historical peak in 2024 since there are other favourable factors to consider.

Most of us believe that if there is a conflict, the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will plummet. But that is not true, because in 2020, there is a global pandemic that severely damages our economy, but what happened in Bitcoin that time? Price hikes have caused an abrupt surge in the market, indicating that there is a lot of demand. As you can see from the chart, it reaches an all-time high. As a result, I believe that if there is a war, it may be beneficial or detrimental to crypto.

Different countries issues is the reason why bitcoin is suffering price loss, when countries are not at peace with others, the whole nations suffered economic crisis, I remember when the price of bitcoin start going down was same season Russian x Ukraine start economy wars. Bitcoin seem to remained statics because of sentiments by this countries attitude towards the resourceful digital products that would have swim financial hardship.