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Topic: Effects: Over-reliance on the US dollar (Read 452 times)

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July 11, 2023, 02:59:58 AM
#47

I think the extensive use of sanctions as a tool of foreign policy against developing nations to influence their decisions has been counterproductive in the long term. The rise of emerging economies like BRICKS can be seen as a direct consequence of this flawed foreign policy approach. Every phenomenon has its own time, declining value of dollar and nations intent to reduce their reliance on US dollar as international currency for import/export of goods and services, unmistakably signals that there is challenging time for dollar in the future.

In my opinion, sanctions can have a certain impact on underdeveloped countries. If the level of development of the country is sufficient, the sanctions will simply lead to the restructuring of the economy to find a way out. In doing so, much will depend on the success of the import substitution policy. Politicians need to look for other ways to solve problems rather than impose sanctions.
International sanctions can and should have a proper impact not only on underdeveloped, but also on economically strong states. The modern development of science and technology has reached such a level that no state can produce absolutely all the goods that it needs. Therefore, almost everyone, who to a greater, who to a lesser extent, depends on the existing division of labor and products.

In addition, not always other ways to solve emerging problems can do without the application of long-term sanctions. An example of this is Russia's current military aggression against Ukraine.
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In my opinion, sanctions can have a certain impact on underdeveloped countries. If the level of development of the country is sufficient, the sanctions will simply lead to the restructuring of the economy to find a way out. In doing so, much will depend on the success of the import substitution policy. Politicians need to look for other ways to solve problems rather than impose sanctions.

You made a valid point regarding potential  positive side of the sanctions for developing countries. Sanction can serve as motivating factor for these nations to strive towards self-reliance and produce/manufacture all what they have been imparting since years. However, as you said success of such plans of self-reliance completely depends on wisdom and strategic vision of political leadership. Several Asian countries, such as China, India, Malaysia and Bangladesh have demonstrated examples of wise and visionary leadership. These countries have effectively utilized their resource and implemented long term strategies to achieve self-reliance.
legendary
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I think the extensive use of sanctions as a tool of foreign policy against developing nations to influence their decisions has been counterproductive in the long term. The rise of emerging economies like BRICKS can be seen as a direct consequence of this flawed foreign policy approach. Every phenomenon has its own time, declining value of dollar and nations intent to reduce their reliance on US dollar as international currency for import/export of goods and services, unmistakably signals that there is challenging time for dollar in the future.

In my opinion, sanctions can have a certain impact on underdeveloped countries. If the level of development of the country is sufficient, the sanctions will simply lead to the restructuring of the economy to find a way out. In doing so, much will depend on the success of the import substitution policy. Politicians need to look for other ways to solve problems rather than impose sanctions.
legendary
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The point is diversification. Should any single currency fail, your portfolio will not entirely lose its value. USD is not stable anymore. Setting aside inflation -- more countries are becoming cautious about the U.S. governments ability to levy sanctions and forfeit assets against a particular country for their own internal political battles. Should you have USD and your country becomes barred from doing business with companies that the U.S. government has jurisdiction over, your currency loses a fair bit of value. The alternative isn't Yuan, it would be a decentralized asset. Some countries are turning to gold but IMO bitcoin would solve a lot of the issues that currency reserves have.

Looking from the perspective of counties that turn to gold and not Bitcoin, you can't blame them. You don't expect a country to keep its reserve in relatively new technology. Gold has been around forever and it is trusted. It can be also volatile like Bitcoin, but it's usually for the short term. Gold is still the best currency.

The application of cryptography for currency uses might be "new" relatively speaking, fine. But I'm not articulating a country keep its reserve entirely in crypto. They're welcome to diversify with different assets and securities including fiat currencies. A prudent decision would be to have the plurality of the reserves be held in Bitcoin. This solves the volatility issue.
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[.....] Some countries may be concerned about the growing influence of China and its potential use of economic leverage to achieve political goals.
It's strange that you mentioned this on China but didn't put it as one of the main weapons of the US when pressuring other countries to follow their demands. They have been leveraging this for years after the WW2 using economic sanctions and it seems this is also the reason why other nations are shifting or applying to become part of BRICS.

I think the extensive use of sanctions as a tool of foreign policy against developing nations to influence their decisions has been counterproductive in the long term. The rise of emerging economies like BRICKS can be seen as a direct consequence of this flawed foreign policy approach. Every phenomenon has its own time, declining value of dollar and nations intent to reduce their reliance on US dollar as international currency for import/export of goods and services, unmistakably signals that there is challenging time for dollar in the future.
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Looking from the perspective of counties that turn to gold and not Bitcoin, you can't blame them. You don't expect a country to keep its reserve in relatively new technology. Gold has been around forever and it is trusted. It can be also volatile like Bitcoin, but it's usually for the short term. Gold is still the best currency.

The choice between Gold and Bitcoin as a reserve asset really depends on the tastes and risks of each country, both in terms of investment strategy and perception. In quotes, if they will. Bitcoin also offers potential future benefits where it is uniquely valued as a store of value asset and has other perspectives to consider, BTC also offers cross-border transactions that are faster, cheaper than traditional methods.

I think, this is another way of looking at creating long-term wealth, if they only knew about it.
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Do nations really need to have a financial reserve in a particular currency of a nation? What are the implications of having reserves in multiple currencies? The dollar has been very stable because the US and its allies have always controlled the world economy. Currently, more nations like China and others have built their economy and they also want to control some segments of the world's economy.
I believe there are countries that have more than one currency as their federal reserve. Yuan, Pounds, Euros, Dollars are all federal reserve currencies. The dollar is only the most popular in this regard. Diversification isn't the issue here. The issue is if one of these currencies depreciates, it affects the country that is using it as a reserve.
What I find dreadful in all these is, a particular country can suffer from the negligence or bad government, bad monetary and fiscal policies of another country. Like how countries suffered because of the increased inflation rates in the U.S.

The point is diversification. Should any single currency fail, your portfolio will not entirely lose its value. USD is not stable anymore. Setting aside inflation -- more countries are becoming cautious about the U.S. governments ability to levy sanctions and forfeit assets against a particular country for their own internal political battles. Should you have USD and your country becomes barred from doing business with companies that the U.S. government has jurisdiction over, your currency loses a fair bit of value. The alternative isn't Yuan, it would be a decentralized asset. Some countries are turning to gold but IMO bitcoin would solve a lot of the issues that currency reserves have.

Looking from the perspective of counties that turn to gold and not Bitcoin, you can't blame them. You don't expect a country to keep its reserve in relatively new technology. Gold has been around forever and it is trusted. It can be also volatile like Bitcoin, but it's usually for the short term. Gold is still the best currency.
legendary
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The most they could ever do right now is to make sure that they are regulating it harshly if they want to, USA doesn't but China sort of does. That's all their power could do, anyone all around the world could still continue to use it anyway they want and bitcoin will continue to exist. They could just go back to their own nations and do what they can with the power they have over their own nations, we will continue to be global.
They are all the same when it comes to being hostile towards bitcoin, the only difference is in their approach. For example the Chinese government outright banned bitcoin mining while US government restricted the hell out of the miners and even forced them into censoring transactions (like MARA pool).

At the end of the day they want full control and don't want bitcoin to even exist. But they also know they can not stop bitcoin so they try to regain at least some of that control using other means like US forcing everyone to use Coinbase for both trading and storing bitcoin. ie. full 100% control and monitoring.
legendary
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Ove-reliance on the US dollar can have both positive and negative effects. Some of the benefits are Stability Us dollar is widely accepted and recognized as a stable currency, which can help foster confidence in global financial markets. US dollar is highly liquid which means it can be easily bought and sold around the world. Using single currency for international transactions can help simplify and streamline the process, reducing transaction costs and increasing efficiency. There are also potential drawbacks to over-reliance on the US dollar including Vulnerability if the US economy experiences a downturn or the value of the dollar declines significantly it could have a ripple effects throughout the global economy. Dependence and also inequity which can create imbalances in global trade and finance, as some countries may be disadvantaged by having hold large amounts of US dollars in reserve.

As history shows, the US economy has been and remains the most stable today. And this is not because the dollar is the world's reserve currency, but simply because the United States is really the strongest and most effective country in many areas - from politics to the army, from the consumer market to technologies that are in demand all over the world.
And only a country that meets a set of criteria will be able to replace the dollar:
1. Recognized as a leader by much of the world
2. Key positions in international politics
3. Strong, self-sufficient economy
4. Key positions in the supply of technologies to the international market
  5. Strong partnerships with major countries (economy/politicum/army/...)

As soon as such a country appears, then the issue of replacing the dollar can be considered. Before such an event, all talk is simple populism to cover up some personal "pocket" interests, but by no means a real solution to the issue of an international reserve currency.
sr. member
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When the dollar's control shows signs of waning, some initiative will be launched to overthrow the domination that has existed. Whether the Chinese yuan will be the new reliable choice or whether the dominance of the dollar will persist over time. Either way, the common ground between the two will still have negative effects when some countries use dependencies for intermediary transactions. This affects the entire economy and politics of a country. So bitcoin is really a solution to the future of mankind when it has independence and is not controlled by any economic power.
legendary
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Over-reliance on the US dollar can have several negative effects on countries that heavily depend on it as their primary reserve currency. With the expansion of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), there has been a growing trend of countries diversifying their reserves away from the US dollar and towards other currencies, including the Chinese yuan.

One of the primary effects of over-reliance on the US dollar is that it can make a country vulnerable to fluctuations in the value of the dollar. If the dollar weakens, the value of the country's reserves also declines, which can have negative implications for their economy.

Furthermore, being too dependent on the US dollar can limit a country's ability to conduct international trade with other countries that use different currencies. This can lead to increased transaction costs, as well as make it more difficult to negotiate favorable trade agreements.

In relation to China's expansion of the BRICS, their efforts to promote the use of the yuan as an alternative to the US dollar could potentially have several positive effects for countries that adopt it. For example, it could lead to increased trade with China, which is currently the world's largest exporter. It could also reduce the vulnerability of countries to fluctuations in the value of the US dollar.

However, there are also potential risks associated with China's expansion of the BRICS, particularly with regard to its geopolitical ambitions. Some countries may be concerned about the growing influence of China and its potential use of economic leverage to achieve political goals.

Overall, over-reliance on the US dollar can have negative implications for countries that heavily depend on it, and the expansion of the BRICS could provide an opportunity for countries to diversify their reserves and reduce their vulnerability to fluctuations in the value of the US dollar. However, there are also potential risks associated with this shift, particularly with regard to China's growing economic and geopolitical influence

It seems like a chicken and egg scenario. You come from the perspective that it is a bad thing, but at the end of the day there will always be a reserve currency in the world and it will ultimately be used in countries where the government has not been stable enough to guide it's own currency well. The American government is far from perfect but it is still far more transparent and flexible than some other countries like China, which leaves you in a situation where you simply accept the best of the worst. The USA will naturally try to protect its reserve currency position as it does benefit from it, but it's fairly benevolent most of the time.
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Ove-reliance on the US dollar can have both positive and negative effects. Some of the benefits are Stability Us dollar is widely accepted and recognized as stable currency, which can help foster confidence in global financial markets. US dollar is highly liquid  which mean it can be easily bought and sold around the world.

I also think too, but I also understand that over-reliance on the US dollar will not have the same benefits as the @OP suggested to diversify, meaning taking advantage of other currency so that in times when US economy weaken, the country who adopted other currency will not be devastated because they have an alternative reservoir.  Aside from that, the countries capability to transact with other country will be enhanced.  the only problem I see in here is that the agreement between government where the deal might forbid a country to deal with other currency.  It is a business after all so each country wanted to have the deal alone.

Your post is only half correct. What you are missing is the similarities between dollar and yuan. They are both terrible if a country decides to reply only on those currencies that would be controlled by "others" not them. In other words if in 10 years from now we see dollar is replaced by yuan, that world will be the exact same world as today!

The only difference at this point is that China is not using Yuan as a weapon like US does. That means many countries prefer using Yuan instead of Dollar. But so far it seems like a passing thing before they build alternative means of trade.
This is why we are in bitcoin world, we know that every government in the world will ruin the nations and there is nothing that can bring it back and it's all terrible. Which is why we should be considering the fact that it's not going to help anyone to keep investing into these fiat currencies or hold any. I personally love crypto because neither USA government nor China prints it, they can't, they can't even control it.

I do not think leaders wanted to ruin their money source, so I think they wanted to maintain the country at least and prolong the duration of their benefits. 

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Your post is only half correct. What you are missing is the similarities between dollar and yuan. They are both terrible if a country decides to reply only on those currencies that would be controlled by "others" not them. In other words if in 10 years from now we see dollar is replaced by yuan, that world will be the exact same world as today!

The only difference at this point is that China is not using Yuan as a weapon like US does. That means many countries prefer using Yuan instead of Dollar. But so far it seems like a passing thing before they build alternative means of trade.
This is why we are in bitcoin world, we know that every government in the world will ruin the nations and there is nothing that can bring it back and it's all terrible. Which is why we should be considering the fact that it's not going to help anyone to keep investing into these fiat currencies or hold any. I personally love crypto because neither USA government nor China prints it, they can't, they can't even control it.

The most they could ever do right now is to make sure that they are regulating it harshly if they want to, USA doesn't but China sort of does. That's all their power could do, anyone all around the world could still continue to use it anyway they want and bitcoin will continue to exist. They could just go back to their own nations and do what they can with the power they have over their own nations, we will continue to be global.
legendary
Activity: 3444
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Your post is only half correct. What you are missing is the similarities between dollar and yuan. They are both terrible if a country decides to reply only on those currencies that would be controlled by "others" not them. In other words if in 10 years from now we see dollar is replaced by yuan, that world will be the exact same world as today!

The only difference at this point is that China is not using Yuan as a weapon like US does. That means many countries prefer using Yuan instead of Dollar. But so far it seems like a passing thing before they build alternative means of trade.
legendary
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The BRICS initiative seems like a joke at this point. Of course, the dollar isn't ideal and can fluctuate, but it's pretty stable, certainly better than many local fiat currencies. More importantly, dollar has a really high liquidity, it can be easily exchanged for other currencies and many other things. Russia accumulated tons of Indian rupees and is now having trouble of what to do with them because the interest in rupees is much lower than in currencies like the USD.
Finally, matters like the reserve currencies you use and loans you take have a political significance. It's a form of being friendly towards certain countries and of sharing their values.
hero member
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Ove-reliance on the US dollar can have both positive and negative effects. Some of the benefits are Stability Us dollar is widely accepted and recognized as stable currency, which can help foster confidence in global financial markets. US dollar is highly liquid  which mean it can be easily bought and sold around the world. Using single currency for international transactions can help simplify and streamline the process, reducing transaction costs and increasing efficiency. There are also potential drawbacks to over-reliance on the US dollar including Vulnerability if the US economy experiences a downturn or the value of the dollar declines significantly it could have a ripple effects throughout the global economy. Dependence and also inequity which can create imbalances in global trade and finance, as some countries may be disadvantaged by having hold large amounts of US dollars in reserve.
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Over-reliance on the US dollar can have several negative effects on countries that heavily depend on it as their primary reserve currency. With the expansion of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), there has been a growing trend of countries diversifying their reserves away from the US dollar and towards other currencies, including the Chinese yuan.

One of the primary effects of over-reliance on the US dollar is that it can make a country vulnerable to fluctuations in the value of the dollar. If the dollar weakens, the value of the country's reserves also declines, which can have negative implications for their economy.

Furthermore, being too dependent on the US dollar can limit a country's ability to conduct international trade with other countries that use different currencies. This can lead to increased transaction costs, as well as make it more difficult to negotiate favorable trade agreements.

It remains to be seen how this development will impact the US economy and the US dollar in the coming years. Still, countries worldwide are exploring alternatives to the US dollar as their primary reserve currency.

Over-reliance on the US dollar can have several negative effects on countries that heavily depend on it as their primary reserve currency. With the expansion of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), there has been a growing trend of countries diversifying their reserves away from the US dollar and towards other currencies, including the Chinese yuan.

One of the primary effects of over-reliance on the US dollar is that it can make a country vulnerable to fluctuations in the value of the dollar. If the dollar weakens, the value of the country's reserves also declines, which can have negative implications for their economy.

Furthermore, being too dependent on the US dollar can limit a country's ability to conduct international trade with other countries that use different currencies. This can lead to increased transaction costs, as well as make it more difficult to negotiate favorable trade agreements.

This trend may continue as governments seek to reduce their dependence on the US dollar and explore new economic and trading partnerships with other countries.
legendary
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April 21, 2023, 05:42:48 PM
#30
Do nations really need to have a financial reserve in a particular currency of a nation? What are the implications of having reserves in multiple currencies? The dollar has been very stable because the US and its allies have always controlled the world economy. Currently, more nations like China and others have built their economy and they also want to control some segments of the world's economy.

The point is diversification. Should any single currency fail, your portfolio will not entirely lose its value. USD is not stable anymore. Setting aside inflation -- more countries are becoming cautious about the U.S. governments ability to levy sanctions and forfeit assets against a particular country for their own internal political battles. Should you have USD and your country becomes barred from doing business with companies that the U.S. government has jurisdiction over, your currency loses a fair bit of value. The alternative isn't Yuan, it would be a decentralized asset. Some countries are turning to gold but IMO bitcoin would solve a lot of the issues that currency reserves have.
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April 20, 2023, 10:37:00 PM
#29

Yes, a very important question, is the yuan or the euro the solution? of course no!!!

In my opinion, neither the yuan nor the euro nor the ruble nor any fiat is the solution. Either diversification or a decentralized currency that is not linked to any entity, economy or institution. This is the solution, as I see it.

The transition from pegging to the dollar to pegging to any other central currency will not end the problem. Rather, all there is is that we will move from the domination of the dollar and the United States to the domination of another country, and the entire global economic situation remains linked to this economy.

So the best solution is either diversification or decentralization.

Your proposal to address the issue of single currency dominance with diversification combined with decentralization is valid idea and it is widely debated in financial community. While diversification may mitigate impact of currency fluctuation but as economies are interlinked globally it won't solve the problem to some extent but not completely. Whereas decentralization is not linked to a single economy or institution but the challenge remains its widespread adoption , as well as implementation of decentralized currencies also faces challenges of regulation, security and scalability.
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April 16, 2023, 02:09:00 PM
#28
Couldn't have said it any better.
However things get, it will always be better to have a particular currency or set of currencies that should be used for international trade. Everybody cannot be trading in his own local currency. So if the dollar is not the answer, does that make the yuan the answer?
Yes, a very important question, is the yuan or the euro the solution? of course no!!!

In my opinion, neither the yuan nor the euro nor the ruble nor any fiat is the solution. Either diversification or a decentralized currency that is not linked to any entity, economy or institution. This is the solution, as I see it.

The transition from pegging to the dollar to pegging to any other central currency will not end the problem. Rather, all there is is that we will move from the domination of the dollar and the United States to the domination of another country, and the entire global economic situation remains linked to this economy.

So the best solution is either diversification or decentralization.
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